下面是小编为大家整理的2020年生态威胁报告,供大家参考。
Co n t en t s
K e y
F indings
4
Overvie w
8
Ecological
Thre at
R egister
Gr oups
10
C at astr ophic
Ecological
Threats
12
R egional
Overvie w
13
Ecological
Thre at
Domains
18
F ood Ins ecurity ,
W a ter
Str e ss
and P e acefulne ss
23
P opulation
Gr ow th,
Economic
Gr ow th
and
P e acefulne ss
2 6
A Snapshot of
Global F ood S ecurity
28
U ndernourishment
and
F ood
Insecurity
32
F ood
Price V olatility
3 4
A Snapshot of
Global W a ter
Str e ss
38
W ater
U sage and
Str e ss
43
W ater
Str e ss
and
Conflict
4 7
The T r end
in
Natur al Disaster s
49
De aths
and
Displacement
fr om
Natur al Disaster s
51
Ecological
Thre at
Hotspots
6 0
Shock
And
R e silience
65
P ositiv e P e ace
and
R e silience
to
Ecological
Threats
6 7
R e sour ce
Depletion
Threats
71
Natur al Disaster s
7 6
F or eign
Aid
and
R e silience
to
Ecological
Threats
7 9
Pr ogr ammatic
Appr oache s
to
R e silience
Building
8 2
Appendix
A:
Ecological
Thre at
R egister
Methodology
84
Appendix
B:
Ecological
Thre at
Count
and
P ositiv e P e ace
St atus
b y
Countr y
85
Endnote s
88
EXE CUTIVE
S UMMAR Y 2
E cologic al
Thr e a t
R egister
7 22
R e s our ce
S c ar cit y , P e ace
and
Conflict
N a tur al
Disasters 48
57
and
E cologic al
Thr e a t s
P o sitiv e
P e ace ,
R e silience
78
A s sistance
R e silience
and
De v elopment
E COLOGICAL
THRE A T
RE GIS TER
2 02 0
|
1
E COLOGICAL
THRE A T
RE GIS TER
2 02 0
|
2 E X E CU TIV E S U M MAR Y
This is
the
inaugur al
edition
of
the
Ecological
Thre at R egister
(ETR),
which
co ver s
15 7
independent
st ate s and
territorie s. Pr oduced
b y
the
Institute
f or
Economics and
P eace
(IEP),
the
ETR
me asure s
ecological
thr eats that
countrie s
are
curr ently
f acing
and
pr ovide s pr ojections
to
2 05 0 .
The ETR
is
unique
in
that
it combine s
me asure s
of
r e silience
with
the
most compr ehensiv e
ecological
dat a
a vailable
to
shed
light on
the
countrie s
le ast
lik ely
to
cope
with
e xtr eme ecological
shock s, now
and
into
the
futur e.
The ETR
include s: population
gr owth,
w ater
str e ss,
f ood insecurity ,
dr oughts,
floods,
c y clone s
and
rising temperatur e
and
se a
lev els.
In
addition,
the
r epor t
use s IEP ’ s
P ositiv e
P eace
fr ame work
to
identif y
are as
wher e r e silience
is
unlik ely
to
be
strong
enough
to
adapt
or cope
with
the se futur e
shock s. The ETR
cluster s
thr eats into
tw o
major
domains:
r esour ce sc ar city
and
natural disa sters .
The r e sour ce
scar city
domain
include s
f ood insecurity ,
wa t er
sc ar city
and
high
pop ula tion
gr o w th . The natur al
disaster
domain
me asure s
the
thr e at
of floods ,
droughts ,
c y clone s ,
se a
le v el
rise
and
rising t empera tur e s .
The ETR
identifie s
thr ee
cluster s
of
ecological
hotspots, which
are
par ticularly
susceptible
to
collapse:
• The Sahel-Horn
belt
of
Africa,
fr om
Maurit ania
to Somalia;
• The Southern
African
belt,
fr om
Angola
to Madagascar ;
• The Middle
East
and
Centr al
Asian
belt,
fr om
S yria to
P akistan.
W ithin
the se hotspots
the
most
fr agile
countrie s
will include
Ir an,
Mo z ambique ,
Madagascar,
P akistan
and K eny a. These countrie s
are
br oadly
st able
now
but
ha v e high
e xposur e
to
ecological
thr eats
and
low
and deteriorating
P ositiv e
P eace,
which
me ans the y
are
at
a higher
risk
of
futur e
collapse .
In
addition,
S yria, Af ghanist an,
Ir aq,
Y emen
and
Centr al
African
R epublic , are
alr e ady
suff ering
fr om
ongoing
conflicts
and
are also
highly
e xposed
to
ecological
thr eats.
This gr oup
of countrie s
are
alr e ady
tr apped
in
a
vicious
c y cle
wher e competition
f or
scar ce
r e sour ce s
cr e ate s
conflict
and conflict
in
turn
le ads
to
fur ther
r e sour ce
depletion.
The w orld’ s
le ast
r e silient
countrie s, when
f aced
with ecological
br e ak do wns,
are
mor e
lik ely
to
e xperience civil
unr e st,
political
instability ,
social
fr agmentation and
economic
collapse .
High
r e silience
r egions,
such
as
Eur ope
and
Nor th America,
ha v e
superior
coping
capacitie s
to
mitigate
the
effects
of
the se ecological
thr eats,
how e ver ,
the y will
not
be
immune
fr om
spill
o ver
eff ects,
such
as
lar ge flo ws
of
r efugee s. The r efugee
crisis
of
2015 highlights that
e ven
r elativ ely
small
number s
of
r efugee s, equiv alent
to
half
a
per
cent
of
Eur ope ’ s
population,
can cause
consider able
unr e st
and
shif t
political
s ystems.
The
ETR
re sult s
sho w
that
1 4 1
countrie s
are
e xposed
to at
le ast
one
ecological
thr e at
betw een
now
and
2 05 0 . The 1 9
countrie s
with
the
highest
number
of
thr eats ha v e
a
population
of
2 . 1
billion
people .
These countrie s f ace
f our
to
six
ecological
thr eats
and
mor e
than
half are
among
the
4 0
le ast
peaceful
nations.
The thr ee countrie s
with
the
highest
e xposur e
to
ecological shock s
are
Af ghanist an,
which
is
f acing
six
ecological thr eats
and
Mo z ambique
and
Namibia,
which
are
e ach f acing
fiv e.
Another
16
countrie s
are
f acing
f our ecological
thr eats.
Approximately
one
billion
people
liv e
in
countrie s
that do
not
ha v e
the
r e silience
to
de al
with
the
ecological change s
the y
are
e xpected
to
f ace
betw een
now
and 2 05 0 .
Not
all
of
the se people
will
be
displaced,
how e ver it
is
lik ely
that
a
lar ge
number
of
them
will
be .
P akistan, with
22 0
million
people
is
the
countr y
with
the
lar gest number
of
people
at
risk,
f ollowed
b y
Ir an
with
84 million
people
at
risk.
In
such
cir cumst ance s, e ven small
e vents
could
spir al
into
instability
and
violence le ading
to
mass population
displacement,
which
in
turn would
ha v e
negativ e
implications
f or
r egional
and global
security .
Ecological
thr eats
in
many
case s
lead
to
humanit arian emer gencie s. Curr ently ,
mor e
than
tw o
billion
people globally
f ace
uncer t ain
acce ss
to
sufficient
f ood
f or
a he alth y
lif e.
This number
is
lik ely
to
incr e ase to
3 . 5 billion
b y
2 05 0 .
Both
hunger
and
f ood
insecurity
ha v e incr eased
since
2 01 4 ,
with
an
additional
300
million people
now
f acing
f ood
insecurity .
The global
demand f or
f ood
is
pr ojected
to
incr e ase b y
5 0
per
cent
b y 2 05 0 ,
which
me ans that
without
a
substantial
incr e ase in
supply ,
many
mor e
people
will
be
at
risk
of
hunger and
f ood
insecurity .
E ven
with
incr eased
f ood pr oduction,
it
is
not
cle ar
that
this
will
pr ovide
those most
in
need
with
mor e
f ood
as
the
incr eased
demand will
come
fr om
the
rising
middle
class
of
Asia. The CO VID- 1 9
pandemic
is
also
pr edicted
to
negativ ely impact
global
f ood
security
and
has not
been
f actored into
this
analysis.
The w orld’ s
le ast
peaceful
countrie s
are
amongst
the countrie s
with
the
highest
lev els
of
f ood
insecurity . Y emen
is
a
test ament
to
this
with
the
lar gest
number
of
E COLOGICAL
THRE A T
RE GIS TER
2 02 0
|
2
E COLOGICAL
THRE A T
RE GIS TER
2 02 0
|
3
people
f acing
st ar v ation
in
2 02 0 .
In
addition,
65
per cent
of
people
in
countrie s
with
low
pe ace
and
low income
e xperience
an
inability
to
aff or d
adequate
f ood at
all
time s. Among
the
OE CD countrie s, 16
per
cent
of the
people
cannot
aff or d
f ood
at
all
the
time s, while
2 . 7 per
cent
are
considered
undernourished.
This highlights
the
f act
that
people
e ven
in
the
richest countrie s
are
at
risk
of
f ood
insecurity .
R egionally ,
mor e
than
half
of
the
population
in
sub- Sahar an
Africa
and
one
third
of
the
population
in
South Asia, Latin
America
and
the
C aribbe an
and
the
Middle East
and
Nor th
Africa
are
f acing
moder ate
to
se ver e f ood
insecurity .
Curr ently
18
of
the
2 0
most
f ood insecur e
countrie s
are
located
in
sub- Sahar an
Africa. The fiv e
most
f ood
insecur e
countrie s
are
Sierr a
L eone , Liberia,
Niger ,
Mala wi
and
L e sotho ,
wher e
mor e
than half
of
the
population
e xperience
se ver e
f ood insecurity .
The demand
f or
w ater
is
pr ojected
to
r e ach
crisis
lev els f or
some
r egions
o ver
the
ne xt
f e w
decade s. The ETR shows
that
o ver
a
third
of
countrie s
will
e xperience
high or
e xtr eme
lev els
of
w ater
str e ss
b y
2 0 4 0 ,
meaning
that mor e
than
half
of
the
a vailable
w ater
is
being
used e very
y ear.
W ater
use
has incr eased
b y
one
per
cent
per y ear
f or
the
last
f our
decade s
and
the
rise
in
demand
is e xpected
to
incr e ase unabated.
In
2 01 9
f our
billion people
e xperienced
se ver e
w ater
scar city
f or
at
le ast one
month
of
the
y ear.
Se ver e
w ater
str e ss
is
wher e
4 0 per
cent
or
mor e
of
the
a vailable
w ater
is
used.
While
population
gr ow th
has declined
fr om
its
heights in
1 96 0s,
it
is
still
high
in
many
par ts
of
the
world.
B y 2 05 0 ,
the
global
population
is
pr ojected
to
r e ach
nearly ten
billion
people .
Ho w e ver ,
the
incr e ase in
population will
be
unevenly
spr ead.
In
the
most
de v eloped countrie s
it
is
pr ojected
to
f all
b y
tw o
per
cent
on a ver age
b y
2 05 0 ,
with
Japan ha ving
the
lar gest
f all
of ten
per
cent.
There
are
17
countrie s
whose
population will
mor e
than
double .
Niger
is
lik ely
to
ha v e
the
lar gest incr e ase of
171
per
cent.
Man y
of
the se countrie s
are alr e ady
highly
vulner able .
It
is
e st...
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