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C O NT E NT S
FOREWORD
4
INDUSTRY
IN
FOCUS
5
AUSTRALIAN
RETAIL
OUTLOOK
2 0 2 0
SURVEY
10
RE T AIL
TREN DS
b y
KPMG
SUSTAINABLE
IS
THE
NEW
TICKET
TO
PLAY
20
SOCIAL
CUSTOMER
CARE
22
RETAIL
AND
THE
SOCIAL
LICENCE
TO
OPERATE
24
CASHLESS
IS
KING
26
IS
E - COMMERCE
PRIMING
TO
BOOM ?
28
INVEST
IN
CX
–
BUT
NOT
FOR
CX
SAKE
30
PUTTING
CUSTOMERS
FIRST
WITH
ADVANCED
ANALYTICS
32
RE T AIL
PR OFILES
COLES ’
TRANSFORMATION
GATHERS
PACE
35
EBAY
ACCELERATES
GROWTH
38
OFFICEWORKS ’
BLUEPRINT
FOR
2 0 2 0
40
SWAROVSKI
SPARKLES
DOWN
UNDER
42
DOMINO ’ S
DELIVERS
MORE
INNOVATION
44
EXPE R T
F OREC A S T S
b y
KPMG
WHY
RETAILERS
FAIL
49
ECONOMIC
UPDATE
52
NZ
RETAIL :
BLACK
CLOUD
OR
SILVER
FERN ?
54
THE
POWER
OF
PERPETUAL
INVENTORY
56
BRIGHT
SPARKS
IN
TOUGH
M & A
MARKET
57
HOW
TO
GENERATE
MORE
CASH
FLOW
58
The
Australian
Retail
Outlook is
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MEDIA
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Austral i an
Retai l Outl ook
2020® Oct omedia
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35
54
F OREW ORD
The
y ear
that
was
2019
WAS
ANOTHER
MOMENTOUS
YEAR
FOR
AUSTRALIAN
RETAIL.
Headlines
were
made
(often)
for
the
wrong
reasons
as
retail spending
slumped
to
a
28-year
low,
the
industry
was
further impacted
by
the
challenge
of
employee
underpayments
and
more retailers
were
forced
to
shut
their
doors,
driven
by
a
wave
of consumer
change.
There
can
be
no
doubt
that
the
global
retail
sector
is
being impacted
by
hugely
disruptive
forces
as
consumers
shift
to
digital and
online
as
their
preferred
medium
of
engaging
with
their favourite
brands.
The
simple
truth
is
Australian
and
New
Zealand
retailers
are
not immune
from
the
changes
impacting
the
rest
of
the
world.
The
pressure
on
retailers
to
remain
relevant
in
the
eyes
of
the consumer
has
never
been
stronger.
Consumers
are
shopping differently,
paying
differently
and
their
values
are
continuing
to
shift as
sustainability
and
ethical
retailing
have
taken
centre
stage.
Retailers
around
the
world
are
recalibrating
their
business
models to
optimise
(usually
downsize)
store
portfolios
and
physical
space alongside
maximising
online
and
digital
engagement.
They
continue to
be
subject
to
the
challenge
of
profitable
growth
across
all
channels in
the
face
of
unparalleled
headwinds,
combined
with
the
white
hot spotlight
of
where
they
fit in
the
circular
economy
and
their
social license
to
operate.
Across
the
Tasman,
the
New
Zealand
retail
market
has
remained resilient
amongst
a
buoyant
national
economy.
However,
much
like Australia,
international
entrants
are
driving
competition
and
placing pressure
on
retail
margins.
So
who
is
doing
well?
JB
Hi-Fi
continues
to
dominate
as
the strongest
player
in
the
sweet
spot
of
consumer
electronics.
The Universal
Store
continues
to
power
ahead
as
a
beacon
for
other
local apparel
retailers.
Online
players
such
as
Kogan
and
Temple
and Webster
are
producing
good
results
leveraging
data
and
digital
to engage
with
consumers.
History
has
shown
that,
overtime,
retail
has
a
tremendous
capacity to
adapt
to
changing
customer
preferences
and
consumer
behaviour. We
believe
that
the
next
decade
will
see
even
more
dramatic
change in
the
retail
sector
as
how
we
live
and
work
further
reshapes
what best
practice
retail
should
look
like.
Of
course,
with
any
signi fi cant
change
also
comes
signi fi cant opportunity.
2020
is
likely
to
be
another
challenging
year
where Australian
and
New
Zealand
retailers
will
continue
to
adapt
and look
for
that
opportunity
to
di ff erentiate
themselves,
reinventing their
businesses
and
leveraging
digital
and
data
to
engage
with their
target
customer.
MATTHEW
DARBY ,
Partner, National Sector Lead Retail, KPMG JAMES
STEWART ,
Partner, Joint National Leader, Restucturing Services, KPMG
4
|
A US TRALIAN
RET AIL
OUTL OOK
2020
www .insider etail. c om.au
F rom
the
editor
WELCOME
TO
THE
AUSTRALIAN
RETAIL
OUTLOOK
2020,
CO-PRODUCED
by
Octomedia
–
publisher
of
Inside
Retail
– and
KPMG.
Another
year,
same
challenges
and
even more
difficulties
have
made
retailing
Down Under
a
tricky
task.
Just
ask
some
of
the latest
retail
casualties
to
enter
administration or
those
suffering
from
the
unprecedented bushfires
that
have
ravaged
the
countryside.
But
it’s
not
all
bad
news.
Consumers have
more
paths
to
purchasing
goods
than ever
before,
and
the
increased
competition has
forced
retailers
in
Australia
and
New Zealand
to
up
their
value
proposition
to
keep
pace.
The
result?
Exciting
partnerships, launches
and
innovative
retailing
by successful
local
retailers
that
are
powering ahead
in
the
new
retail
landscape.
On
the
flipside,
those
lagging
behind on
merchandise
and
service
are
falling
by the
wayside.
This
year’s
edition
features
the
latest insights
from
some
of
the
largest
retailers operating
in
Australia.
We
speak
to
Coles CEO
Steven
Cain
about
the
supermarket giant’s
last
12
months
and
their
current transformation
journey.
Ebay’s
MD
Tim
MacKinnon
talks
about
the e-commerce
conglomerate’s
continued
success in
Oz,
while
O ffi ceworks’
acting
MD
Michael Howard
talks
about
the
retailer’s
plans
for
the next
12
months.
Domino’s
ANZ
CEO
Nick Knight
gives
us
a
glimpse
of
the
pizza
firm’s innovation
focus
and
Swarovski’s
MD
Brett Spinks
talks
about
the
jewellery
firm’s
plans.
KPMG’s
experts
delve
into
the
latest and
largest
trends
in
retailing
while
also offering
their
forecasts
on
the
business
landscape
over
the
next
12
months.
We
also have
the
results
from
our
industry-wide survey
and
much
more.
I
hope
you
enjoy
this
year’s
edition
and that
it
provides
some
valuable
insights
for the
year
ahead.
DIMITRI
SOTIROPOULOS
Editor, Australian Retail Outlook
I N DUS TR Y
IN
F O CUS
C O M PLEX ITY
A T
THE
C ORE
OF L O C AL
RE T AIL
LAN D SC APE
IN DUS TR Y
IN
F O CUS
Sur v e yin g
the
scene
in
2020
It’s
certainly
been
a
tough
year
for
retailers,
and
it
doesn’t
look
like
trading conditions
are
going
to
get
any
better
in
the
immediate
future.
IF ONE WORD HAD TO BE USED IN DESCRIBING THE CURRENT state of Australian retail and broader economy, perhaps ‘tempestuous’ is the most appropriate. On the one hand, while some categories and retailers are thriving, others are failing and falling into obsolescence. And then there’s the impact of unprecedented bushfires across the country. The costs from damage to property and wealth ‚will likely run into many billions‛ according to Dr Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Economics and Chief Economist, AMP Capital. ‚The Victorian Black Saturday bushfires are estimated to have cost $4.4bn, whereas the current fires have covered an area 15 times bigger,‛ he says. Indeed, ANZ says consumer confidence fell 1.7 per cent in the first week of January to its lowest level in over four years – the ‘unusual drop’ reflecting the the impact of the bushfires. Meanwhile, in this year’s Australian Retail Outlook Survey [page 10], over half of the 610 participants from across the industry, of which 24.5 per cent are c-suite executives, owners or board members, think there will only be slight changes to trading conditions over the next 12 months. It’s a view echoed by Dr Brendan Rynne, Partner and Chief Economist at KPMG, who in a must read economic update, says the trading environment facing Australia in 2020 is likely to be a continuation of the current tough trading conditions [page 52]. With consumer confidence already low due to the catastrophic bushfires; global economic factors and the volatile value of the Australian dollar; plus the
“
same old culprits of rental overheads and competition from both local and overseas retailers, it’s no wonder that retailing is expected to be tough in 2020. But while this may sound very downbeat, there’s also been some positive news for retailers to herald a new decade.
CHRISTMAS
KINDNESS
The first retail spending update from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) of the year and decade, is a positive one for retailers. Buoyed by major online sales events, Black Friday and Cyber Monday, retail had its largest retail sales increase in two years, up 0.9 per cent in November to a record $27.9 billion – doubling the increase expected by economists. ...
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