下面是小编为大家整理的2020年世界经济形势与展望年中报告,供大家参考。
iii
C on t en ts
Summary ..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................
i
G lobal
macroec onomic
tr ends
...........................................................................................................
1
Global
ov er vie w
............................................................................................................................................................................................................
1
S c enarios
and
r eg ional
outlook ..............................................................................................................................................................................
3
P andemic
destr o ying
jobs ........................................................................................................................................................................................
6
T r ade
in
goods
and
ser vic es
....................................................................................................................................................................................
6
E c onomic
pain
spr eading
thr ough
global
tr ade
net w orks
.............................................................................................................
6
A
sudden
dr op
in
global
t our ism
and
tr a v el ..........................................................................................................................................
7
C ommodit y
pr ic es
in
a
fr ee
fall ...............................................................................................................................................................................
8
D e v eloping
c oun tr ies
face
mounting
financial
c onstrain ts
......................................................................................................................
8
R apid ,
bold
but
uneven
polic y
r esponses
.........................................................................................................................................................
10
T he
w orld
ec onomy
aft er
C O VID-19:
B ack
to
normal
or
a
ne w
normal?
.......................................
12
Online
ec onom y
the
ne w
r ealit y? .........................................................................................................................................................................
13
D e veloped
ec onomies:
fiscal
c onsolidation
or
higher
tax es? ...................................................................................................................
13
D e v eloping
c oun tr ies:
a
debt
crisis ,
high
infla tion
or
both?
.....................................................................................................................
14
R ising
po v er t y
and
inequality .................................................................................................................................................................................
14
Globalization
facing
an
exist en tial
crisis .............................................................................................................................................................
15
S tr onger
in t er na tional
c ooper a tion
f or
a v oiding
a
debt
crisis ..................................................................................................................
16
Reg ional
ec onomic
outlook
................................................................................................................
17
D e veloped
economies ...............................................................................................................................................................................................
17
Nor th
America .....................................................................................................................................................................................................
17
Japan
and
developed
A sia .............................................................................................................................................................................
17
E ur ope .....................................................................................................................................................................................................................
17
E c onomies
in
tr ansition
.............................................................................................................................................................................................
18
D e v eloping
c oun tr ies
.................................................................................................................................................................................................
18
A fr ica ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................
18
E ast
A sia
...............................................................................................................................................................................................................
19
S outh
A sia ..............................................................................................................................................................................................................
19
West er n
A sia .........................................................................................................................................................................................................
20
L a tin
America
and
the
C ar ibbean ...............................................................................................................................................................
21
Refer enc es .............................................................................................................................................
22
T able Figur es
1
Gr o wth
of
w or ld
output ,
2018–2021 ..........................................................................................................................................
5
1
Wor ld
g r oss
pr oduc t ,
le v el
and
annual
changes ,
2010–2021 ..........................................................................................
1
2
Share
of
w or ld
GDP
under
lockdown,
b y
dur a tion
..............................................................................................................
2
3
Global
g r o wth
sc enarios ,
2020–2021
.......................................................................................................................................
3
4
C on tr ibution
of
c ommodit y
expor ts ,
r emittanc es ,
t our ism
and
tr a v el ,
and
FDI
t o
GDP
(2014–2018
a v er age)
........................................................................................................................................................................
4
5
Tour ism ’ s
t otal
c on tr ibution
t o
GDP
of
SIDS
............................................................................................................................
7
6
West
Texas
I n t er media t e
(WTI)
and
Br en t
F r on t
M on th
F utures
( daily
closing
pr ic e) ...........................................
8
7
F iscal
indica tors
pr ior
t o
the
global
financial
crisis
and
the
C OVID -19
crisis
.............................................................
9
8
I n t er est
pa ymen ts
as
a
shar e
of
go v er nmen t
r e venue
.......................................................................................................
10
9
P ublic
and
publicly - guar an t eed
ex t er nal
debt ,
b y
cr edit or
t ype
...................................................................................
10
10
P er
capita
liquidity
(br oad
mone y),
GD P ,
fix ed
investmen t
and
FDI
.............................................................................
11
11
Pov er t y
pr ojec tions .............................................................................................................................................................................
15
2.7
2.1
1.9
1.9
2.1
2.2
2.6
2.0
2.5
2.1
Net
output
loss
against
former
baseline
(RHS) Net
annual
output
gain
(RHS)
Former
baseline
( WESP
2020) Baseline
( WESP
2020
Update)
- 3.6
- 4.7
G lobal
macroeconomic
tr ends
Global
o v er view
ft e
C O V ID - 19 p a n de mi c
h a s
p a r a l y z ed
l a r g e
p a r t s
o f
t h e
g l o b a l
e c o n om y , s h a r pl y
re - s t r i c t i n g
e c o n omi c
a c t i v i t i e s , i nc re a s i n g
u nc er t a i n t i e s
a n d
u n l e a s hi n g
a
re c e ss io n
u n s ee n s i nc e
t h e
G re a t
D e p re ss io n.
G l o b a l
g r o ss
d om e s t i c
p r o d u c t
( G D P )
i s
fo re c a s t
t o
s h r i n k b y
3.2 p er
c e n t
i n
2020, w i t h
o n l y
a
g r a d u a l
re c o v er y
o f
l o s t
o u t pu t
p r o j e c t ed
fo r
2021. C u m ul a t i v e l y ,
t h e
w o r l d
e c o n om y
i s
ex p e c t ed
t o
l o s e
n e a r l y
$8.5
t r i ll io n
i n
o u t pu t
i n 2020 a n d
2021 (F i g u re
1 ) , n e a r l y
w i p i n g
o u t
t h e
c u m ul a t i v e
o u t pu t
ga i n s
o f
t h e
p re v io u s fo u r
y e a r s .
F igur e
1
W orld
g r oss
produc t ,
le v el
and
annual
changes ,
2010 – 2021
90
Trillions
of
constant
2015
US
dollars
6
85
4
80
2
75
0
70
-2
65
60
2010
2011
2012
-4
-6
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Source:
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