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10.0
1M
perf.
(%)
YTD
perf.
(%)
-
Asia
Europe
(10.0)
(20.0)
(30.0)
(40.0)
Equit y
R es ea r ch A s ia
Pa ci f ic
Figu r e
1 :
Ch i n a ( d o wn
10 % )
l e as t
i mpac te d
YTD ;
P h i l ,
In d o w e ak e s t
i n
As i a
Rese ar c h
An aly sts
Ma n i sh
Ni g am 852
2101
7067
m a nis h. nigam @ c redit - s uis s e. c om
Va i b h a v
Ja i n
852
2101
7061
vai bha v.j a in @ c redit - s uis s e. c om
Pr o du c t
Ma r k e ti n g ,
A PA C
852
2101
7061
a pa c. produc t m a rk e t ing@ c red it - s uis s e. c om
P ric ed
a s
of
20 - Mar - 2020.
P erform a n c e of
k ey
indi c es
(loc a l
c urrenc y
t er m s ).
Sourc e: Refini t iv ,
C S
Res ea rc h
■ T he
s ha r p
r ise
in
C O VID - 19
ca s es
in
Eur ope
a nd
U S
in
p a s t
w eek
ha s
led
to
s tr ic ter r es tr ic ti ons
a cr os s
r eg ions .
O ur
Ec onom ic s
team s
h a ve
cut
2020
GDP
f or eca s ts
f or
the U S ,
Eur ope
r e g ion
a nd
C hina
( r e f er
Ec onom ic
out look
r epo r ts
f r om
pa g e
4 ) .
Gove r nm ents a r e
tr y ing
t o
m it i g a te
the
impa ct
of
C O VID - 19
by
us ing
moneta r y ,
f isca l
( r ef e r
F ig .
2
f o r f isca l
s ti m uli
a nnounced
in
A P A C )
a nd
a dm ini s tr a ti ve
( lo ck dow n)
m ea s ur es .
B oth
th e qua ntum
of
f isca l
s ti m uli
a nd
e ff ic ien cy
of
implementa ti on
w ill
determine
the
ex tent
of benef ic ia l
impa ct .
■ In
thi s
r epor t
s er ies,
w e
a im
to
pr ovide
a
s umm a r y
of
k ey
r es ea r ch
on
the
topi c
f r om
C S ’ r es ea r ch team
l a s t
w eek
( plea s e f ind
ou r
ea r li e r
r epor t
da ted
16
M a r ch ).
■ O ur
Globa l
S t r a teg y
team
hig hli g hts
‘dividend
a r istocr a ts’
-
tho s e
compa nies
tha t
ha ve g r ow n
thei r
dividend
per
s ha r e in
each of
the
la s t
10
y ea r s .
O ur
A PA C
S tr a teg y
team
adds to
ex isting
O ver w eig hts
in
Ko r ea ,
S ing a por e
a nd
Malay s ia ,
do w ng r a de s
Indones ia
f r om O ver w eig ht
to
Ma r k et
Wei g h t ,
a nd
India
f r om
Ma r k et
Wei g h t
to
U nder w eig ht.
In
s ect or s , our
big g es t
O ver w eig hts
r em a i n
IT
a nd
int er net,
but
w e
do w ng r a de
Ins ur ance
f r om O ver w eig ht
to
U nder w eig ht
on
th e wea k
r a tes
outl ook .
■ O ur
C hina
team
hig hli g hts
tha t
consum pti on
look s
w ea k er
even
t houg h
w or k
r es um pti on
is no
m or e
a
m a jor
concer n.
T her e
a r e
pock ets
of
s tr eng th
in
vid eo,
onli ne
g a m ing
a nd
e - comm er ce;
othe r
s eg m ents
of
c ons um pti on
a r e
li k ely
to
r ecove r
g r a dua ll y .
O ur
C Q i
team s ha r es
tha t
business
ha s
r e s um ed
in
m a ny
s ect or s ,
a nd
ca s h
s tr es s
ha s
a lso
ea s ed
a
bit . How ever ,
f ull
y ea r
outl ook
look s
s lug g ish,
m or e
s o
f o r
e x por t - o r i ented
s ect or s .
In
F i g ur es 7 - 18 ,
w e hi g hli g ht
the
bes t /
w or s t
per f or m in g
na m es
( Y T D
ba s is) i n
A PA C
ma r k ets. ‘Them es
Moni tor ’
pr ovides
u pda tes
on
k ey
r eg iona l/ g lob a l
themes
a nd
pr es ents
a compr ehens ive
r ound - up
o f
C r ed it
S uiss e
r es ea r ch
on
t he sector .
D IS CLOSU RE
AP P E ND IX
AT
TH E
B ACK
O F
TH IS
REP O RT
CONTA IN S
IMP O RT ANT
D IS CLOSU RE S ,
ANALYST CE RT IFICATIONS, LE G AL
E NTITY
D IS CLOSU RE
AND
TH E
S TA TU S
O F
NON - U S
ANALYSTS.
U S
Discl os ur e :
C r edit
S uiss e does a nd
s eek s
to
do
business w it h
compa nies
cover ed
in
it s
r e s ea r ch
r epor ts.
A s
a
r es ult ,
inve s tor s
s hould
be
a w a r e
tha t
the
F ir m
m a y
ha ve
a
conf li ct
of
int e r es t
tha t
coul d
Themes
Moni to r
COVID - 19
–
A
review
o f
our
re c e nt
res earch
#2
T hem a ti c
R es ea r ch |
Pr oduct
M a r k eti ng
Them e China
Malaysia
HK
Taiwan
Singapore
Vietnam
Australia
India
S.
Korea
Thailand
Japan
Indonesia
Philippines
UK
France
Germany
US
T able
of
Co nte nts
F isca l
m ea s ur es
a nnounced
in
A PA C
..................................................................................... 3
GDP
g r ow th
es ti m a tes
in
U S ,
Eu r ope
a nd
C hina
................................................................... 3
R ecent
r epo r ts
f r om
C S
r es ea r ch t ea m
.................................................................................. 4
Ec onom ic
out look
r epor ts
....................................................................................................... 4
Globa l
a nd
r eg iona l
equi ty
st r a teg y
r epo r ts
............................................................................. 5
C ountr y
wis e str a te g y
r epor ts
.................................................................................................. 7
A s ia
Pa ci f ic
ma r k ets
-
S ect o r
r ep or ts
................................................................................... 12
U S
a nd
Eur opea n
ma r k ets
– S elec t
s ect or
r epor ts
............................................................... 18
Movement
in
bond
y iel ds
a nd
c ur r ency
................................................................................. 20
B es t/ w or s t
Y T D
per f or m in g
stoc k s
i n
A PA C
ma r k ets
.......................................................... 21
T hem es
Monitor
series: R epo r ts
........................................................................................... 27
F isca l
m easures a nn oun ced
in
A PAC
Figu r e
2 :
AP AC
co u n tri e s /regi o n s
-
Fisc al
st i mu l u s
ann o u n c e d
b y
g o v e r n me n ts
( ti ll
d at e ,
b u t
ra p i d l y
c h ang i n g )
2018
G DP
( US $
b n)
S ti m u l u s p ac k a g e ( US $
b n)
A s
% o f
G DP
R e ma r k s
Aus t ra lia
1 , 434
11.4
0.8
Di rec t
c a s h
t ra ns fer
t o
lo w
inc o m e indiv idua ls ,
t a x
reba t es
t o
c om pa n ies (higher
deprec ia t ion)
a nd
t a x free
pa y m ent s
t o
SMEs
C hina
13 , 608
No
s pec ifi c a nnouncem ent
NA
Support
provided
t o
c o m pa nies
via
f ina nc ia l
ins tit ut ions
(e a s y
fina nc e,
rel a x ed
pa y m ent
t erm s ),
indi c a t ion t o
c om pa nies
t o
a void
ret ren c hm ent
of
c ont ra c t
w ork ers HK
363
15.4
4.2
Di rec t
c a s h
t ra ns fer
t o
a ll
perm a nent
re s ident s ,
reba t e in
t a x es
I ndia
2 , 718
Not
a nnounced
yet
NA
Aim ing
t o
provide
s upport
t o
affec t ed
s ec t ors
I ndones ia
1 , 042
8.8
0.8
Reduc t ion
in
c orpora t e in c om e t a x
for
s pec ifi c
s ec t ors
(for
s ix
m ont hs),
c a s h
t r a ns fer
t o
low
in c om e hous eholds ,
provis ion
for
inc rement a l
c r edit
t o
SMEs
w i t h
g ood
c redit
his t ory
J a pa n
4 , 971
19.6
0.4
Support
t o
SMEs ,
int eres t
free ,
c oll a t er a l
free
loa ns
t o
affec t ed
s ec t ors
M a lay s ia
359
4.5
1.3
M ic ro
c redi t ,
dela y
in
t a x
pa y m en t s
for
t ourism
rela t ed
c o m pa nies ,
lo wer
rent als for
a irpor t
us a g e, fina nc ia l
a id
for
SMEs ,
dis c oun t
on
ele c t ric it y
bil ls for
affec t ed
s ec t ors ,
pa y m en t
of
RM2 00
t o
a ll
B a nt ua n Sara
H idup
(B SH )
rec ipi ent s
(pa rt ly
bro ug ht
forw a rd
fro m
M a y
2020 )
P hil ippi nes
331
1.1
0.3
Di rec t ed
t ow a rds
t ourism
s ec t ors ,
S M E s ,
dis loc a t ed
w ork ers Sing a pore
364
4.0
1.1
F oc us ed
on
s elf - em ployed
individu als a nd
SMEs
South K orea
1 , 619
9.8
0.6
Subs idi es
t o
SMEs ,
s oft
loa ns
t o
affec t ed
ex port ers ,
ret ra ini ng
for
people
who
ha ve
l os t
jobs
T a iw a n
590
3.3
0.6
T a rgeted
t o
help
ret a i l,
res t a ura n t ,
t ra d e a nd
t ourism
s ec t ors
T ha ila nd
505
12.7
2.5
Soft
loa ns
a nd
t a x
benefi t s
for
affec t ed
bus ines s es / indi vidua ls Viet na m
245
1.3
0.5
T a x
brea k s ,
a cc eler a t ed
infr a s pending
a nd
dela y ed
t a x
pa y m en t s
Sourc e: W orld
B ank (G DP
da t a ),
C redi t
Suis s e resea rc h
GDP
gr ow th
es timat es
in
US ,
Eur op e
an d Ch ina
Figu r e
3 :
G D P
g r o w th
e sti mates
i n
U S ,
E u r o reg i o n
and
Ch i n a
2019 E
2020 E
2021 E
US
2.3
(0 .9 )
2.7
Euro
a rea
1.2
(4 .0 )
5.0
Ger m a ny
0.6
(5 .3 )
5.4
I t a ly
0.3
(7 .2 )
8.0
F ra nce 1.2
(3 .3 )
3.5
Spai n
2.0
(3 .9 )
5.3
U nit ed
K ingdom
1.4
(3 .8 )
4.1
Norw a y
(C P I - AT E)
2.6
(1 .5 )
3.0
Sw eden
(C P I F )
1.2
(4 .4 )
6.1
Sw it zerla nd
0.9
(0 .5 )
2.0
C hina
6.1
3.3
5.6
Sourc e: C redit
Suis s e resea rc h
Rec ent
repor ts
from
CS
research
tea m
Ec on omic
outlook
reports
1.
J a m e s
S w eeney :
C S
Hous e Vi e w
-
U S
Ec onomy
N otes :
GD P
S hut s
Dow n
o Ec onom ic
a ct ivit y
is
being
s hut
down
to
pr es erve
publ ic
hea lt h.
A
r ecess ion
is
nea r ly inevit a ble,
a nd
in
our
view ,
i t
ha s
a lr ea dy
beg un.
T his
is
a
disr upti on
of
histor ic pr opor ti ons ,
oddly
f itti n g
the
ty p e
of
non - economic
s hock
w e
w or r ied
tha t
m a r k ets w er e unpr epa r ed
f o r
i n
ou r
2020
out look .
o T he
des ig n
of
the
upcoming
f is ca l
s ti m ulus
w ill
be
cr it ic a l
f or
th e
f ina nci a l
s urviva l
of m a ny
business es ,
big
a nd
s m a ll ,
a nd
m a ny
hous eholds
too.
U n em ploy ment
w ill
r ise s ha r ply ,
but
g ood
po li cy ca n
pr event
la s ti ng
da m a g e.
( 20 - Ma r - 2020 )
2.
J a m e s
S w eeney :
C S
Hous e Vi e w
-
U S
Ec onom ic s :
T h e W ee k
A hea d
o T...
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