冠状病毒危,机对工人影,响:冠状病毒初步调查结果(全文)

发布时间:2022-06-28 19:55:04

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冠状病毒危,机对工人影,响:冠状病毒初步调查结果(全文)

 

  Th e

 ef f ec t s

 o f

 th e

 c or ona v i r us

 cr i s i s

 on

 w or k e r s

 Fl as h

 f i n d i n g s

 f r om

 th e

 R e s o l u ti on

 F oun d a t i on ’ s

 co r o n a v ir u s s ur ve y

  1 6 M a y

 2020

 L aur a

 G ar d i n e r

 &

 Han n ah

 S l augh t e r

  T he

 c o rona virus

 c ris is

 ha s

 hit

 w o rk e rs

 ha rd:

 t he

 numb e rs

 o f

 t ho s e

 f urlo ughed

 a nd

 th o s e ne w ly

 c la iming

 U nive rs a l

 C redit

 illus t ra t e s

 th e

 s ca l e .

 T o

 d a te ,

 ho w eve r,

 w e

 ha ve

 h a d ve ry

 lim it e d

 inf o rm a t io n

 a bo ut

 w hic h

 t y p e s

 o f

 p e op le

 ha ve

 b een

 mo st

 affec t e d .

 I n

 t his s po t lig ht ,

 we

 b e gin

 t o

 f ill

 t his

 g a p

 wit h

 f las h

 f inding s

 fr om

 t he

 Re s o l ut io n

 F o unda t ion’ s ne w

 c o rona virus

 s urve y .

  T o

 b e g in,

 w e

 f ind

 that

 n ea rly

 on e - third

 o f

 lo w e r - p aid

 e mp lo y ee s

 ha ve

 lo s t

 j ob s

 o r

 b ee n f urlo ughe d,

 c omp are d

 t o

 less

 tha n

 o ne - in - ten

 to p

 ea r n er s ,

 wit h

 t he s e

 exp er i en ces

 a l s o m or e

 c ommon

 a mon g

 a t y p ic a l

 e mp lo y ee s .

 T h e

 C o rona virus

 J ob

 Re t e nt io n

 Sc he m e

 ha s b een

 we ll - r eceiv ed

 b y

 w o rk e rs ,

 wit h

 mo re

 tha n

 ha lf

 o f

 th o s e

 f url o ughed

 h a ppy

 a bou t th a t

 o ut c om e ,

 p e rha p s

 in

 p art

 b eca us e

 a

 f if t h

 o f

 them

 exp ect

 to

 r em a i n

 on

 t he ir

 full

 p a y . T h e

 G o ver nm en t’ s

 s ch em e

 f o r

 th e

 sel f - e mp lo y e d

 is

 less

 w e ll - unde rs t oo d,

 wit h

 thre e - in - t e n

 w o rk e rs

 that

 did

 s om e

 s e lf - e mp lo y e d

 w o rk

 p rio r

 t o

 c o rona virus

 b e lie ving

 t he y

 a r e ine lig ib le

 f or

 s uppo rt .

  T urning

 t o

 t he

 f ut ure ,

 o ve r

 ha lf

 o f

 t he

 gro up

 mo s t

 lik e ly

 t o

 b e

 w o rk ing

 fr om

 ho me

 a t p r es en t

 – hig he r

 ea rne rs

 – e x p ec t

 t o

 w o rk

 f ro m

 hom e

 mo re

 a f t e r

 c o rona virus

 tha n

 t he y did

 b e f o r e.

 Bu t

 m or e

 i mpo rta nt ly ,

 on e - in - e ig ht

 of

 t h os e

 w ho

 a r e

 c urre nt ly

 w o rk ing think s

 it

 lik e ly

 that

 t he y

 w ill

 lo s e

 t he ir

 j ob

 o ve r

 th e

 n ext

 th r ee

 mon th s .

 T h e

 s ta k es

 a r e hig h

 f o r

 m a ny

 in

 t o da y ’ s

 ne w

 w o rld

 o f

 w o rk .

  I n

 t his

 s po t lig ht ,

 w e

 p r e s e nt

 t he

 f irs t

 re s ult s

 f ro m

 ou r

 ne w

 s urve y

 o f

 w o rk ing - a g e

 a dult s

 in

 t he UK ,

 w hic h

 ca p ture s

 w ide - ra ng ing

 evide nc e

 on

 t he

 e ff ec t s

 t h at

 t he

 c o rona vir us

 c ris is

 ha s

 h a d on

 j ob s ,

 b en ef i ts ,

 inc om e s ,

 living

 sit uat io ns

 a nd

 f u tu r e

 exp ecta ti on s .

 Her e ,

 w e

 f oc u s

 on

 t h e la bo ur

 m a rk e t

 e x p e rie nc e ,

 a nd

 i n

 p art i cula r

 h ow

 t his

 dif f e r s

 ac ro ss

 t he

 ea rning s

 dis t rib ut io n . I n

 f ut ure

 s po t lig ht s

 w e

 w ill

 e x a m ine

 o t he r

 a r ea s

 s uc h

 a s

 la bo ur

 m a r k e t

 e x p e rie n ce

 b y

 a g e . 1

 The

 s urve y

 w a s

 de s ig n e d

 a nd

 c omm is s io ned

 b y

 t he

 Re s o lut io n

 F o unda t io n,

 in

 p art ne rs hip wit h

 t he

 H ea lt h

 F o unda t io n

 ( a lt ho ug h

 t he

 vie ws

 in

 t his

 no t e

 are

 no t

 ne ce ss a rily

 t ho s e

 o f

 t h e

 H ea t h

 F o unda t io n) .

 It

 was

 c o nduc t e d

 using

 a n

 o nline

 int e rvie w

 a dm inis t ere d

 t o

 m e mb e r s

 o f t he

 Y ouGo v

 P lc

 U K

 p a ne l ,

 w hic h

 is

 m a de

 up

 o f

 8 00 , 000 +

 indi vidua ls

 w ho

 ha ve

 a g ree d

 t o

 ta k e p art

 in

 s urve y s .

 T he

 t o t a l

 sa mp l e

 si ze

 w a s

 6 , 00 5

 a dult s ,

 a g e d

 1 8 - 65

 a nd

 f ie ldw o rk

 w a s unde rta k e n

 during

 6 - 11

 M ay

 2020 .

 F ig ure s

 p re s e nt e d

 he re

 ha ve

 b ee n

 w e ig ht e d

 a nd

 are re p re s e nt a t ive

 o f

 a ll

 G B

 a dult s

 ( a g e d

 1 8 + )

 acc o rding

 t o

 a g e ,

 g e nde r,

 a nd

 re g io n . 2

  Furl o ug h i n g ,

 a nd

 j ob

 a nd

 hou r s

 l o sse s,

 a r e

 much

 mor e

 commo n

 e x p e r i e n ce s

 f o r

 l o we r - e ar nin g

 em plo y ees

 W e

 f i r s t

 f o cu s

 on

 th e

 exten t

 to

 w h i ch

 p eo p l e

 w ho

 w ere

 i n

 em p l o y ee

 j ob s

 b ef o r e

 th e c o rona virus

 c ris is

 ha ve

 e x p e rie nc e d

 c ha ng e s

 a ss o c ia t e d

 w i t h

 re duc t io ns

 in

 ea rning s

 a nd/ o r t he

 a mount

 o f

 w o rk

 b e ing

 done .

 F ig ure

 1

 s h ow s

 a

 c le a r

 g ra die nt

 in

 j ob s

 a nd

 ho urs

 lo ss e s ,

 a nd

 f url o ug hing ,

 ac ro ss

 t he

 ea rning s dis t rib ut io n.

 C lo s e

 t o

 o ne - third

 ( 3 0

 p e r

 ce nt )

 o f

 t he

 lo w e s t - ea rning

 f if t h

 o f

 e mp lo y ee s

 ha ve b ee n

 f urlo ughed

 o r

 l o s t

 t he ir

 j ob ,

 c omp a r e d

 t o

 less

 tha n

 o ne - in - ten

 ( 8

 p er

 c en t)

 o f

 th e

 to p f if t h

 o f

 e mp lo y ee

 ea rn e rs

 p re - c o rona virus .

 I n

 c o nt ra s t ,

 t h e

 dis t rib ut io n

 o f

 c o r o na virus - re la t e d ho urs

 l o ss e s

 ( that

 are

 a ss o c ia t e d

 w i t h

 p a y

 r e duc t io ns )

 b y

 p rio r

 ea rning s

 le ve l

 is

 m uc h

 less s t a rk . 3

 Fig ur e

 1

 O ne - third

 o f

 t h e

 l o w es t - p aid

 f if t h

 o f

 e mp lo y ee s

 ha ve

 b ee n

 f urlo ug h e d,

 o r

 lo s t j ob s

 o r

 ho urs

 P r opo r tio n

 o f

 emp lo y ees

 w h o

 h a ve

 ex p erience d

 j ob

 ch a n g es

 since

 t h e

 co r o n a vir u s o u t b r e ak ,

 b y

 e mp l o ye e

 e ar n i n g s

 q u i n t il e

 p r i o r

 t o

 t h e

 o u t b r e ak :

 U K,

 6 - 11

 Ma y

 2 02 0

 N ot e s :

 Base

 =

 a ll

 U K

 a d u lt s

 a ge d

 1 8 - 6 5

 w h o

 h a d

 a n

 emp l o y ee

 j ob

 p ri o r

 t o

 t h e

 c o ro n av i r u s

 o u t b rea k ,

 a n d

 p ro v i ded i n f orm a t i o n

 o n

 t h eir

 u s u a l

 ea rn i n g s

 p ri o r

 t o

 t h e

 c o ro n av i ru s

 o u t b rea k

 ( a p ar t

 f ro m

 f o r

 t h e

 ‘ a ll

 emp l o y ee s ’

 ca teg o ry) . Ear n ing s

 q u int ile s

 ar e

 b ase d

 o n

 ne t

 ( t a k e - h o m e)

 u s u a l

 emp l o y ee

 p a y

 p ri o r

 t o

 t h e

 c o ro n av i r u s

 o u t b rea k .

 ‘ F u rl o u g h ed ’ a n d

 ‘ lo st

 j ob ’

 r e l a te

 t o

 e m p lo y ee s’

 m a in

 j ob ;

 ‘ lo st

 h o u rs

 a n d

 p a y

 d u e

 t o

 c o r o n av ir u s’

 ca p t u r e s

 e m p lo y ee s

 n o t

 in

 e it h e r o f

 t h es e

 f i rs t

 t w o

 gro u p s

 w h o

 ar e

 w o rk i n g

 few e r

 h our s

 t h a n

 t h e i r

 us ua l

 ho ur s

 b e f o r e

 t h e

 c o r ona vi r us

 outb r e a k ,

 w hi c h t h ey

 s t a te

 h as

 h a ppened

 f o r

 c o ro n av i ru s - rela t ed

 reas o n s ,

 a n d

 w h o

 h av e

 a l s o

 ex p eri en c ed

 d ecreases

 i n

 ear n i n g s .

 So u rc e :

 R F

 a n a ly sis

 o f

 Y ouG ov ,

 A d u lt s

 a ge d

 18

 t o

 6 5

 and

 t he

 c or on av i r u s

 ( C O VI D - 1 9) .

 O ve ra ll,

 1 5

 p e r

 ce nt

 o f

 e mp lo y ee s

 ha d

 b ee n

 f urlo ughed

 fr om

 t he ir

 m a in

 j ob

 in

 ea rly

 M a y

 ( a fig ure

 that

 ris e s

 t o

 2 1

 p e r

 ce nt

 f o r

 p riva t e

 s ec t o r

 w o rk e rs ) ,

 w hile

 a ro und

 3

 p e r

 ce n t

 o f em p l o y ees

 ( a

 f i g u r e

 th a t

 r i s es

 to

 4

 p er

 cent

 w h en

 th e

 sel f - e mp lo y e d

 are

 inc luded)

 ha d

 lo s t t he

 m a in

 j ob

 t he y

 h a d

 p rio r

 t o

 t he

 c o rona viru s

 o ut b rea k .

 I n

 num e ric a l

 t e rm s ,

 o ur

 s urve y

 s ug g e s t s

 a ro und

 4 . 1

 m illio n

 o f

 t he

 U K’ s

 2 7 . 9

 m illio n

 e mp lo y ee s ( i n

 D ecem b er - Fe b r u ar y

 2020 )

 ha ve

 b ee n

 p l ace d

 on

 f url o ug h,

 s om e w hat

 lo w e r

 tha n

 t h e

 6 .3 - 7 . 5 m illio n

 j ob s

 that

 f irm s

 ha ve

 c la im e d

 J RS

 s uppo r t

 f o r

 f ro m

 H M

 Reve nue

 &

 C ust om s

 up

 t o

 t his po int .

 T his

 discre p a nc y

 is

 lik e ly

 t o

 b e

 e x p la in e d

 b y

 a

 r a n g e

 o f

 f a cto r s :

 th e

 f act

 th a t

 p eo p l e

 ca n ha ve

 mo re

 tha n

 o ne

 j ob

 ( a n

 is s ue

 w e

 re t urn

 t o

 b elo w )

 f o r

 e x a mp le ;

 th a t

 so me

 w o rk e rs

 that w ere

 f urlo ughed

 ha ve

 s ince

 b ee n

 b ro ught

 b ac k

 int o

 t he

 w o rk p la ce ;

 a nd

 that

 s om e

 s urve y re s po ndent s

 p e rha p s

 w ere

 unf a m ilia r

 wit h

 t he

 ter m

 ‘ f urlo ug h’ ,

 le a d ing

 t o

 a

 deg ree

 o f

 unde r - rec o rding .

 L i k ew i s e,

 th e

 4

 p er

 cent

 o f

 w o rk e rs

 that

 ha ve

 lo s t

 t he ir

 j ob s

 is

 e q uiva le nt

 to

 1 .4 m illio n

 w o rk e rs

 – a

 fig ure

 w hic h

 is

 c o ns is t e nt

 wit h

 ea rly

 dat a

 on

 inflo ws

 t o

 U nive rs a l

 C redi t 4 , a nd

 in

 t he

 s a m e

 b a llp a rk

 a s ,

 a lt ho ug h

 lo w e r

 tha n ,

 f o r eca s ts

 f o r

 une mp lo y m e nt

 increa s e s

 in t he

 s ec ond

 q ua rte r

 o f

 2 0 2 0 . 5

 O vera ll ,

 i t

 s eem s

 r ea s on a b l e

 to

 s u gg es t

 th a t

 th e

 es ti m ates

 o f f urlo ug h ing

 a nd

 j ob

 lo ss

 p ro vide d

 b y

 o ur

 s urv e y

 m a y

 b e

 a t

 t he

 c o ns erva t ive

 e nd

 o f

 t he s p ectr um .

  Fig ur e

 2

 E mp lo y ees

 i n

 a t y p i ca l

 w o r k

 a r e

 m o r e

 li k el y

 t o

 ha v e

 been

 f u r lou g hed ,

 o r

 lo s t j ob s

 or

 h ou r s

 P r opo r tio n

 o f

 emp lo y ees

 w h o

 h a ve

 ex p erience d

 j ob

 ch a n g es

 since

 t h e

 co r o n a vir u s

 o u t b r e ak ,

 b y

 t y p e

 o f

 w o rk

 arra n ge m e n t

 p ri o r

 t o

 c o ro n av i ru s :

 U K,

 6 - 11

 Ma y

 2 02 0

  N ot e s :

 Base

 =

 a ll

 U K

 a d u lt s

 a ge d

 1 8 - 6 5

 w h o

 h a d

 a n

 e m p l oyee

 j ob

 p r i or

 t o

 t h e

 c o r on av i r u s

 ou t b r e a k .

 Emp l o y ee s

 ca n

 fa ll

 int o

 mu lt ip l e

 a t y p i ca l

 w o r k

 ca teg o r i e s.

 ‘ F u r lo u g h e d ’

 a n d

 ‘ lo st

 j ob ’

 r e la te

 t o

 e m p lo y ee s’

 m a in

 j ob ;

 ‘ lo st

 ho ur s

 a nd

 p a y d u e

 t o

 c o ro n av i ru s ’

 ca p t u res

 emp l o y ees

 n o t

 i n

 ei t h e r

 o f

 t h es e

 f i rs t

 t w o

 gro u p s

 w h o

 are

 w o rk i n g

 fewer

 h o u rs

 t h a n

 t h eir

 u s u a l

 h o u rs

 b ef o re

 t h e

 c o ro n av i ru s

 o u t b rea k ,

 w h i c h

 t h ey

 s t a te

 h as

 h a pp e n ed

 f o r

 c o ro n av i ru s - rela t ed

 reas o n s , a nd

 w ho

 ha ve

 a l s o

 ex p e ri en c ed

 d ecrea...

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