固定收益资产组合:聚焦几十年而不是几年(完整文档)

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固定收益资产组合:聚焦几十年而不是几年(完整文档)

 

  

 The lack

 of belie f in

 low-for-longer rates resulted in a ‘decade of denial’. We prepare for more of the same

 

 Many

 of our year-end

 y ield

 t argets

 and

 spread s are

 close

 t o being

 met, so

 most of our convictions are ‘neutral’ 

 Thi s said , we

 f ind

 r elative

 value

 across global

 f ixed

 income

  North

 America

 rates

 – focus

 on curves

 a nd spreads

 Pa g e

 7 It’s likely that the peak for t he

 10- to 30-year

 slope

 ha s alread y been

 reached

 at the 80bp

 le v el . Canada’s polic y rate, currentl y 25b p, could

 be

 cu t to match the 10bp

 US effective

 f unds

 rate, if t he

 economic

 outlook

 deteriora tes. We like

 t he

 long-end

 o f USD SSA versus Treasuries, noting that much of the year’s supply is likely done.

 Eurozone non-core

 rates

 repricin g Pa g e

 13 We wonder

 if a

 repricing

 is

 occurring , after interventions

 on

 bo th the

 fisca l

 and monetary polic y f ron ts. T he

 Nex t Gen eration

 EU

 f un d, which

 can

 give

 gra nts as

 well as

 loans , could

 well

 be

 a

 watershed

 momen t for t he

 Eurozone . UK

 rates

 – front-end domino effect Pa g e

 15 O n

 balance

 we

 t hink

 money

 will

 move

 up

 the curve , resulting

 in

 a

 domino

 effect flattening.

 Ra tes at the

 ver y f ron t -end

 alread y refle ct a

 stro ng

 po ss ibili ty o f a

 serie s of rate cuts in to negative

 territory: al most 10bp

 of easing

 is

 priced

 in

 b y F ebruary 2021

 and

 a

 tota l

 of 20bp

 is

 discoun t ed

 over t he

 nex t 18

 month s.

 Russia

 rates

 – central

 b ank

 ca n cut

 fu rther

 Pa g e

 20 Given

 t ha t our curre nt T a y lor rule

 e stimates p ut t he

 optimal

 poli cy rate f or

 Russia

 well below

 t he

 curr en t level

 at around

 0% , we

 c ontinue

 to e x pe ct a

 deep

 easing

 cy cl e. Howev er, our main

 conviction

 is

 in

 t he

 magnitude

 o f the easing

 cyc le , not necessaril y its speed , so

 we

 see

 more

 value

 in

 the bell y t han

 the f ro nt- end

 of the curv e .

 Korea

 rates

 – not do ne

 easing yet

 Pa g e

 25 We see

 good

 v alue

 in

 long-dated

 Korea

 tre asur y bonds

 (KTBs), aft er

 they have notabl y underperformed US T reasuries

 so

 f ar t hi s y ear . T he

 underpe rform ance

 is largely a result of investors’ concerns of a huge jump in government bond supply. Credit – re ining in our bulli s h ho rns

 Pa g e

 10

 and Pa g e

 26 We downgrade

 our view

 on

 Asia

 cred it t o

 neutral

 from mildl y bulli sh, with

 s lower global

 and

 regional

 grow th equating

 to wider

 dispersion

 b et ween

 the st ronge st and weak est name s in

 individual

 c red it rating

 buc kets. USD

 HY

 looks

 to be

 most vulnerable , having

 tightened

 more

 t han

 100bp

 in

 recen t we eks, the

 st rong est rall y among

 DM

 credi t marke ts. T he

 spe ctre of def au lts continues

 to haun t the EUR

 HY marke t and

 valuations

 no

 longer

 compensa te for t he

 risks. 5

 Augu st 2020

 Steven Major, CFA Global Head of Fixed Income Research HSBC Bank plc steven.j.major@hsbcib.com +44 20 7991 5980

 Disclosures & Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. Issuer

 of

 report:

 HSBC

 Bank

 plc

  View

 HSBC

 Global

 Research

 at:

 https://www.research.hsbc.com

 Glob al

 Fixed Income Rates Decades not years Fixed

 Income

 Asset

 Allocation

  Contents

 Convictions

 and

 forecasts

 3

 Global

 direction

 4

 Americas

 7

 US

 7

 Canada

 8

 USD

 supras

 and

 agencies

 9

 USD

 credit

 10

 Latin

 America

 11

 EMEA

 12

 Eurozone

 core

 12

 Eurozone

 non-core

 13

 Euro

 breakevens

 14

 UK

 15

 UK

 breakevens

 16

 EUR

 supras

 and

 agencies

 17

 Covered

 bonds

 18

 European

 credit

 19

 GBP

 credit

 19

 CEEMEA

 rates

 20

 Green

 bonds

 21

 Asia-Pacific

 22

 Japan

 22

 Australia

 23

 New

 Zealand

 24

 Asia

 rates

 25

 Asia

 credit

 26

 Currencies

 27

 Forecasts

 28

 Disclosure

 appendix

 30

 Disclaimer

 34

 iBoxx

 inflation iBoxx

 Covered

 iBoxx

 Sub-sovereigns

 iBoxx

 Sub-sovereigns

 12.57

 5.09

 7.51

 3.95

 4.92

 0.32

 0.70

 0.70

 8.36

 1.58

 1.49

 1.59

 9.04

 1.57

 2.45

 4.08

 Convictions

 and forecasts

  Table

 1 . T he

 HSBC

 Con victi on Sn aps hot: ou r

 v i e w s

 on t he

 fi xe d in come

 asset classes

 for

 th e

 coming month

  Conviction*

  Index

  Yield

 Returns

 (%)

 1

 month

 Name

  Duration

 31

 July

 (%)

 1

 month

 (bp)

 1

 month

 3

 month

 US

 Treasury

 ◄

 Neutral

 ►

 LUATTRUU

 ►

 I05760EU

 ►

 LTITTREU

 ►

 LSG1TRGU

 ►

 BEPAGA

 ►

 I05500CA

 ▼

  BEASGA

 7.17

 8.39

 7.26

 13.56

 9.80

 7.27

 7.36

 0.42

 -0.59

 0.71

 0.26

 0.06

 0.41

 0.71

 -10

 -13

 -24

 -9

 -3

 -6

 -2

 1.12

 0.74

 1.98

 0.51

 0.25

 0.62

 0.10

 0.96-0.295.72-0.07-0.671.300.34Euro

 core

 ◄

 Neutral

 Euro

 non-core

 ◄

 Mildly

 bullish

 UK

 gilt

 ◄

 Mildly

 bullish

 Japan

 govt

 ◄

 Mildly

 bearish

 Canada

 govt

 ◄

 Neutral

 Australia

 govt

 ▼

 Mildly

 bullish

  Global

 inflation

 ▼

 ▼

 Covered

 ◄

 ►

 Euro

 SSA

 ▼

 ▼

 USD

 SSA

 ▼

 ▼

 -1.53

 -15

 -0.2

 -6

 0.05

 -7

 1.02

 -15

 *HSBC FI Research opinion, direction of arrows indicates change of view from previous month Source: Bloomberg, iBoxx, HSBC Notes:

 Bloomberg

 indices

 are

 used,

 except

 for

 inflation,

 covered

 bonds

 and

 SSAs,

 which

 use

 iBoxx.

 Germany

 is

 used

 as

 a

 proxy

 for

 the

 Eurozone

 core

 (I05760EU)

 and

 Italy

 for the

 periphery

 (LTITTREU).

 Indices

 are

 local

 currency

 except

 for

 inflation

 and

 EM

 which

 are

 US

 dollar-based.

 Euro

 corporates,

 covered

 bonds

 and

 SSAs

 are

 euro-denominated.

 *Bloomberg

 Barclays

 US

 Corporate

 **Bloomberg

 Barclays

 High

 Yield.

  Table

 2 . F orecast summary: 10 Y yields

 ( %)

  Country

 Current

 +1m

  Q3

 2020

 Q4

 2020

 Q1

 2021

 Q2

 2021

 Q3

 2021

 Q4

 2021

 United

 States

 0.54

 0.53

 0.55

  (-0.05)

 0.50

  (-)

 0.63

  (-)

 0.75

  (-)

 0.88

  (-)

 1.00

  (-)

 Germany France Italy Spain

 United

 King Japan Canada Australia

 Source: HSBC forecasts, Bloomberg. Change from last month shown in parentheses. Mildly

 bearish

 Neutral

 Neutral

 Neutral

 EM

 EXD

 ▲

 Mildly

 bullish

 ▲

  JPMGCOC

 ►

 JGG$DCM

 ▼

  iBoxx

 EUR

 Corporates

 ▼

  iBoxx

 EUR

 High

 Yield

 ▼

  iBoxx

 GBP

 Corporates

 ►

 Bloomberg

 US

 Corporates*

 ▼

  Bloomberg

 US

 High

 Yield**

 ▼

  iBoxx

 ADBI

 8.0

 5.4

 5.35

 3.93

 8.41

 8.72

 3.57

 5.50

 5.1

 4.4

 0.73

 4.26

 1.90

 1.88

 5.41

 2.80

 -40

 -12

 -31

 -36

 -23

 -29

 -148

 -40

 3.4

 3.2

 1.74

 1.70

 2.18

 3.16

 4.50

 2.41

 14.5

 10.2

 3.04

 6.71

 4.56

 6.83

 10.17

 6.65

 0.5

 -3.7

 0.26

 -3.94

 4.88

 8.35

 0.53

 5.20

 EM

 LCD

 ◄

 Neutral

 EUR

 IG

 ▼

 Neutral

 EUR

 HY

 ▼

 Neutral

 GBP

 IG

 ▼

 Neutral

 USD

 IG

 ◄

 Neutral

 USD

 HY

 ▼

 Mildly

 bearish

 Asia

 credit

 ▼

 Neutral

 -0.56

 -0.55

 -0.50

  (-)

 -0.60

  (-)

 -0.55

  (-)

 -0.50

  (-)

 -0.50

  (-)

 -0.50

  (-)

 -0.23

 -0.20

 -0.20

  (-0.05)

 -0.30

  (-0.10)

 -0.25

  (-0.05)

 -0.20

  (-)

 -0.20

  (-)

 -0.20

  (-)

 0.97

 0.95

 0.95

  (-0.20)

 0.85

  (-0.30)

 0.83

  (-0.32)

 0.80

  (-0.35)

 0.80

  (-0.30)

 0.80

  (-0.30)

 0.31

 0.30

 0.35

  (-0.05)

 0.20

  (-)

 0.20

  (-)

 0.20

  (-)

 0.20

  (-)

 0.20

  (-)

 dom

 0.08

 0.10

 0.00

  (-0.10)

 0.00

  (-)

 0.00

  (-)

 0.00

  (-0.20)

 0.20

  (-)

 0.30

  (-0.10)

 0.02

 0.00

 -0.05

  (-)

 -0.10

  (-)

 -0.05

  (-)

 0.00

  (-)

 0.00

  (-)

 0.00

  (-)

 0.45

 0.45

 0.50

  (-0.05)

 0.50

  (-)

 0.58

  (-)

 0.65

  (-)

 0.73

  (-)

 0.80

  (-)

 0.82

 0.85

 0.70

  (-)

 0.65

  (-)

 0.70

  (-)

 0.80

  (-)

 0.90

  (-)

 1.00

  (-)

  Global direction

  

 We reflect on

 how

 the backdrop

 to our

 persistently

 low

 bond

 yield forecasts over

 the la st ‘ decade

 of denial ’ is

 set to persis t 

 Compared

 with

 t he

 other

 G3 markets, the drop

 in

 US

 real

 yield s j ust represents

 a

 catch- up

 

 Recognising

 the interlinkages

 and

 read-across f rom

 one

 market to another , we

 look

 at central

 banks

 fr om

 sm aller countries

 for direction

  Steven Major, CFA Global Head of Fixed Income Research HSBC Bank plc steven.j.major@hsbcib.com +44 20 7991 5980 A noth er

 d ecade

 of d enial

 In January t hi s y e ar, when

 ju stify ing

 our

 below-con s ensus

 bond

 y ield

 for ec asts, we

 outlined

 how much

 of t he

 rationale

 wa s denial

 abo ut wh at had

 gone

 be fore. T he

 last de c ade

 o f denial

 was characterised

 b y another

 surge

 in

 deb t le v els

 and

 wh at can

 be st be

 described

 a s Mr Micawber- like expectations that “something will turn up”. In Decade

 o f denial : F ixed

 I ncome

 Asset A llocation , 8

 Januar y 2020,

 we

 listed t he

 fo llowing

 rea s on s wh y we

 believed

 bond

 y ields

 were set t o

 remain

 low , in

 defian c e

 of mainstream f ore casts: 1. T he

 cy clical

 mindse t looks

 f or

 patterns in

 bond

 y ields

 where

 they m ove

 in

 ta ndem

 w it h near-term g yr ation s in

 the economic

 data . Monthl y variation

 in

 the PMI serie s, for example , does

 nothing

 to in fl uence

 our

 y ear-end

 bond

 y ield

 forecasts, which

 are

 driven b y a

 structura l

 view

 of the equilibrium polic y rate, particularl y with

 regard

 to global

 deb t. 2. As de bt levels

 have

 risen , so

 the burden

 of de bt servicing

 has

 weighed

 down

 on

 f uture grow th (see

 Figure

 1). T he

 increase

 in

 global

 de bt ha s been

 more

 tha n

 thr ee

 t ime s as fast as

 grow t h

 in

 the global

 econom y. Exten ding

 and

 pretending

 is

 the polic y-mak er equivalent of assuming that ‘something will turn up’.

 USD133trn

 increase

 in

 global debt

 in

 the

 last

 20

 years

 and USD44trn

 growth

 in

 the global

 economy

 Figu re

 1.

 Glob al

 d ebt

 g ro wing faster

 th an

 G DP

 (USDtrn)

 Debt GDP Multiple 2000 60.2 33.6 1.8x 2010 129.1 60.0 2.2x

 2020 193.6 77.9 2.5x 2020-2000 133.4 44.3 3.0x Source: IIF debt database for combined DM and EM in USDtrn. Note: total debt across household, corporate and government sectors. 51 country data set used. All dates refer to Q1

  Central

 banks

 themselves

 are lagging

 the

 shift

 lower

 in longer-run

 real

 rates

  3. Actua l

 sho rt duration

 positions

 predi cate d

 on

 a

 view

 that wa s based

 on

 a

 r eversion

 to the mea n. Because

 y ields

 are

 low , th ere

 are

 tho se

 who

 believe

 ...

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