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al n
r
te
n
I
-
d e
t
c
i
tr s
Re
C OR E
U.S.
Aut os
&
Aut o
P a rt s
Rebo unding
us ed
c ars,
resized
rentals
W e
u pda te
o u r
m o d e l s
f o ll ow i ng
1Q
e a rn i ng s
a nd
o u r
v i rt u a l
ND R
wi th
Av i s.
W h ile i n v e s tor s
a r e
b e c om i ng
m or e
c om f or ta b le
w i th
th e
u s e d
c ar
b ac k dr op,
f oc u s
f or
th e
RA T I N G
C H A N GE
U . S .
Au t o s
&
Au t o
Par t s
NE U TRAL
Unc hang e d
E qu ity
R e s ear c h
21
M ay
2020
i ndu s tr y
i s
a r ou n d
s u r v i v i ng
t h e
n ext
f e w
qu ar t e r s ,
an d
th e
r elati v e
st r e ng th
of
e ac h c om pa n y
on
th e
oth e r
s i de
of
th e
dow n tu r n .
H e r e ,
th e
n ar r ati v e
f or
C AR
an d
H TZ
h as b i fu r c ate d,
w i th
i n v e s tor s
g ai n i ng
c om f or t
i n
Av i s ’ s
li qu i di ty ,
bu t
s till
un s u r e
h ow
easil y i t
c an
take
ou t
f lee t
an d
c os ts
t o
ali gn
to
l ow e r
v olum e s ,
an d
H e r tz
f ac i ng
th e
pote n tial r i sk
of
AB S
hold e r s
exe r c i s i ng
th ei r
li qu i da ti on
r i gh ts
i f
H TZ
i s
un able
to
n e g oti ate an oth e r
f or b ea r an c e
p e r i od .
W e
u pd ate
ou r
m ode l s
f oll ow i ng
1 Q
an d
ou r
NDR
w i th Av i s ,
an d
addr e ss
th e
i m pl i c ati on s
of
u s e d
pr i c i ng ,
f lee t
d i s po s al s
an d
th e
pos s i b ility
of l owe r
g o - f or w ar d
v olum e s
f or
both
c om pa n ie s .
N ew l y
f o und
o pti m i sm
f o r
u se d
c a r
pr i c es .
B ase d
on
th e
c om b i n ati on
of
s tr on g e r
t h a n e xpe c te d
U S
SAAR
an d
a
r oc ky
s ta r t
to
No r th
Am e r i c a
pr o du c ti on ,
w e
are
i n c r easi ng l y c om f or ta b le
th at
u s e d
c ar
v al u e s
w ill
not
f all
of f
a
c li ff .
M an h ei m
pub li s h e d
i ts
M ay
m i d - m on th
r e por t
w h i c h
s h owed
r e s i du al
v al u e s
u p
5 . 7 %
f r om
on e
m on th
ago,
an d
n o w on l y
dow n
~5 %
f r om
M ay
las t
y ear .
Looking
at
i n v e n tor y
an d
pr odu c ti on
tre n ds
i n
th e ke y
r e n tal
c ar
c ate g or ie s ,
i t
a p pe ar s
th at
i n v e n tor ie s
a r e
i n d ee d
b ei ng
d r aw n
dow n
f or n e w
c ar s .
As
a
r e s u l t,
d eale r s
m ay
b e c om e
m or e
r e c e pt i v e
to
p u r c h asi ng
th e
late
m ode l , m i d - l ow
m ile age
c ar s
th at
th e
r e n tal
c ar
c om pa n ie s
n ee d
to
d e f leet .
Op era ti ng
a
ren ta l
c a r
co m pa n y
a t
50 %
l o wer
v o l u m es .
W i t h
th e
de m an d
pi c tu r e
s till lar g el y
un c lear
b e y ond
2Q ,
w e
e xam i n e
s c e n ari os
to
d ete r m i n e
i f
r e n tal
c ar
e qu ity
i s v i able
at
a
25 %
an d
50 %
i m pa i r m e n t
to
tra v el
v olum e s .
For
A v i s
s p e c i f i c all y ,
w e
b elie v e r i gh t-s i zi ng
th e
f lee t
b ac k
to
ta r g e t
u tili za t i on
( i . e
s elli ng
dow n
~3 00 k
c ar s )
c o u l d
le ad
to pos iti v e
E B I TD A
e v e n
at
50 %
le ss
v olum e s .
H ow e v e r ,
w i th
C AR’ s
~$ 200 mn
an nu al i n te r e st
e xp e n s e
( an d
m or e
at
H e r t z ) ,
w e ’ d
e xpe c t
Av i s
to
o n l y
b e
FCF
b r eake v e n
at 25 %
l owe r
v olum e s
w i th ou t
ta kin g
m or e
agg r e ss i v e
f ixe d
c os t
c u tt i ng
m eas u r e s .
H ertz
f o rb ea ranc e
peri o d
en d i ng
thi s
w ee k ,
CE O
M a r i n el l o
ste ps
d o wn .
Th e
W all Str ee t
Jou r n al
r ep o r ted
y e st e r d ay
th at
H e r tz
h as
a s ke d
f or
an oth e r
60
da y s
to
n e g oti ate de b t
t e r m s
as
i ts
lease
f or b ea r an c e
p e r i od
i s
s e t
to
e xp i r e
F r i da y .
G i v e n
th e
pot e n tial li qu i da ti on
r i sk
f or
H e r tz ,
th e
ke y
i ss u e
f or
Av i s
i s
w h e th e r
th i s
w ou l d
e
g ood
or
b ad
f or th ei r
bu s i n e ss .
W e
as s e ss
two
pos s i b le
s c e n ari os .
1 )
I f
H e r tz
h as
to
li qu i da te
c om pl e t el y , th e
r e s u l t
w ou l d
b e
e xc e ss
f lee t
u s e d
c ar
on
th e
m arke t
p l ac e
w h i c h
c o u l d
depr e ss r e s ale
v al u e s
bu t
w ou l d
u lti m atel y
le ad
to
b e tt e r
s h are
f or
Av i s
at
ai r por ts .
2 )
I f
H e r tz
is able
to
s e c u r e
d e b t
f i n an c i ng
an d
c r eate
an
o r de r l y
r e - or g an i z ati on ,
i t
c ou l d
e m e r g e
as
a f or m i da b le
c om pe ti t o r
w i th
a
r i gh t-s i ze d
f lee t .
M a i n ta i n
CAR
a t
E W ,
$15
pr i c e
ta rg et ;
H TZ
UW,
$2
pr i c e
ta rg et .
W e
k ee p
ou r
E W
on Av i s ,
b elie v i ng
i t
s h ou l d
w eat h e r
th e
C ovi d - 19
di s r u pt i on s
th i s
y ear ,
an d
b e
able
to r i gh t-s i ze
i ts
bu s i n e ss
f or
l ow e r
r un - r ate
v olum e s .
Ho w e v e r ,
w e
st ill
do
not
b elie v e
H e r t z s h are
p r i c e
r e f le c ts
th e
pote n tial
li qu i da ti on
r i sk ,
leavi ng
u s
U W .
Fo r
a
ful l
list
o f
o ur
r ati ng s ,
p r i c e
tar g et
and ear ni ng s
c hang es
i n
t hi s
r e p o r t ,
p lease
see t ab le
o n
p ag e
2 .
U . S .
Au t o s
&
Au t o
Par t s Bria n
A.
J o hnson
+ 1
212
526
5627
b r i an. a. j o hn s on@ b a r c l ay s . c o m BC I ,
US
S te v e n
H e mp el ,
C F A
+ 1
312
609
7260
ste v e n. he mp el @ b a r c l ay s . c o m BC I ,
US
Jas o n
S t uhl d r e he r
+ 1
312
609
8183
Jas o n. S t uhl d r e he r @ b a r c l ay s . c o m BC I ,
US
B a r c la y s
C a p i t al
I n c .
a n d / o r
o n e
o f
i ts
a ff ilia t e s
d o e s
a n d
s ee ks
t o
d o
bu s i n e ss
w i t h c o m p a n ie s
c o v e r e d
i n
i ts
r e s ea r c h
r e p o r ts .
A s
a
r e s u l t ,
i n v e st o r s
s h o u l d
b e
a w a r e
t h a t
t h e f i r m
m a y
h a v e
a
c o nf li c t
o f
i n t e r e st
t h a t
c o u l d
a ff e c t
t h e
o b j e c t i v i t y
o f
t h i s
r e p o r t .
I n v e st o r s s h o u l d
c o n s i d e r
t h i s
r e p o r t
a s
o n l y
a
s i ng le
f a c t o r
i n
m a k i ng
t h ei r
i n v e st m e n t
d e c i s i o n .
P L E A S E
S EE
A N A L Y S T
C E R T I F I C A T I O N ( S )
A ND
I M PO R T A N T
D I S C L O S U R E S
BE G I NN I N G
O N
P A G E
14 .
Sum m a r y
of
our
R a t ing s ,
P r ice
T a r get s
a n d
E a r n ing s
C h a n ge s
in
t h i s
R epor t
( a ll
c h a n ges
a r e
s h own
in
bold )
C o mp a n y
R a ti ng
Old
Ne w
P ric e
15 - May - 20
Old
P ric e
T a rg e t
Ne w
% C hg
Old
E P S
F Y 1
( E )
Ne w
% C hg
E P S
F Y 2
( E )
Old
Ne w
% C hg
U . S .
A uto s
&
A u t o
P a rts
N e u
N e u
A v is
Bud g et
Gr o up
I nc .
( C A R )
EW
EW
11 . 88
15 . 00
15 . 00
-
- 21 . 38
- 15 . 09
29
4 . 23
1. 67
- 61
H e r t z
Gl o b al
H o l d i ng s
I nc .
( H T Z )
UW
UW
2 . 64
2 . 00
2 . 00
-
- 12 . 49
- 9. 88
21
1 . 65
0. 17
- 90
So ur c e:
B a r c l a y s
R esear c h.
Share
p ri c es
a nd
ta r g e t
p ri c es
a re
sh o wn
i n
t he
p ri m a r y
li st i ng
c u rr ency
a nd
E P S
es t i m at es
a re
s ho wn
i n
t he
r ep o r t i n g
c u rr ency . F Y 1 (E) :
Cu rr en t
f i s c a l
y ear
es t i m at es
b y
B a r c l a y s
R esear c h .
F Y 2 (E) :
N ex t
f i s c a l
y e a r
es t i m at es
b y
B a r c l a y s
R esear c h .
St o c k
R at i n g :
OW :
O ver we i g h t ;
E W :
E q u a l
W ei g h t ;
UW :
Und er weig h t ;
R S :
R at i ng
Sus p end ed Ind us t r y
V ie w:
P o s :
P o s i t ive ;
N eu :
N eut r a l ;
N e g :
N e g at i v e
V a lua t ion
Methodology
a n d
R i s ks
V alua t io n
M et hod olo g y :
Ou r
$15
p r i c e
tar g et
is
d e r i v e d
b y
ap p l y i ng
a
6 . 2 x
E V / E BI T D A
m ul ti p le
t o
2021 E
c o r p o r ate
E BI T D A
o f
$565 m n.
Risk s
whi c h
M a y
I mpe d e
t he
A c hi ev emen t
o f
t he
Ba r c la y s
R es ear c h
V alua t io n
a nd
Pr ic e
T ar g e t :
Risks
whi c h
m a y
i mp e d e
A v is
hi tti ng
o ur
p r i c e tar g et
i nc l ud e
a
m ac r o
d o wnt ur n
i n
t he
U. S .
v ia
a
we ake ni ng
U. S .
c o ns um e r .
A dd iti o nal
r isks
i nc l ud e
d o w nwar d
p r ess u r e
o n
us e d
c ar
p r i c es , hi g he r
d e p r e c iati o n
and
a
sl o wd o w n
i n
us e d
c ar
l o an
A BS
o r i g i nat i o n.
V alua t io n
M et hod olo g y :
Ou r
$2
p r i c e
tar g et
ap p lies
a
tar g et
m ul ti p le
o f
7 . 2 x
o n
o ur
2021 E
E BI T D A
esti m ate
o f
$424 m n.
Risk s
whi c h
M a y
I mpe d e
t he
A c hi ev emen t
o f
t he
Ba r c la y s
R es e ar c h
V alua t io n
a nd
Pr ic e
T ar g e t :
Risks
whi c h
m a y
i mp e d e
H e r t z
fr o m
hi tti ng o ur
p r i c e
tar g et
i nc l ud e
a
US
g o v e r nm e nt
b ail o ut ,
a
p ay m e nt
e xe mp ti o n
fr o m
c r e d it o r s ,
and
a
r a p i d
b o unc e
bac k
i n
t r av el
ac ti v it y
and / o r
u se d v e hi c le
p r i c es .
So ur c e:
B a r c l a y s
R esear c h.
A v i s
Bu dge t
Gr o up
I n c .
( C A R )
U . S .
A uto s
&
A u t o
P a rts
H e rt z
Gl o ba l Ho l di n gs
I n c .
( HT Z)
U . S .
A uto s
&
A u t o
P a rts
I ndu stry
Vi e w :
N E U T R A L
A v i s
B ud g et
G roup
I nc .
( C A R )
S to c k
R a ti n g:
E Q U A L
WE I G HT
So ur c e:
C o mp a ny
d ata ,
B l oo m b er g ,
B a r c l a y s
R esear c h No t e:
F Y
E nd
D e c
Pr ic e
(1 5 - M a y - 2020 )
U S D
11 . 88
Pr ic e
T ar g e t
U S D
15 . 00
Why
Eq u a l
Weig ht ?
T he
s har e
p r i c e
at
t he se
le v els ( whi le
we
d o
see
up si d e )
is
hi g hl y
c o nt i ng e nt
up o n
t he
r e c o v e ry
i n
d o m esti c
t r av el .
U ps i d e
c a s e
U S D
25 . 00
Our
up si d e
c ase
r e fl e c ts
t he
p o ssi b ilit y
o f
m ul ti p le e xp ansi o n
d ue
t...
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