非洲“青年就业”危,机实际上是“失去职位”危,机(完整文档)

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非洲“青年就业”危,机实际上是“失去职位”危,机(完整文档)

 

 Contents

  1

 Intr oduction

  3

 The

 dominant

 narr ativ e

 and

 curr ent

 e vidence

  11

 A

 “ missing

 jobs”

 crisis

  15

 P olicy

 conclusions

  18

 Ref er ences

 Intr oduction

 Oppor tunities

 for

 emplo yment,

 or

 the

 lack of

 them,

 ha ve

 long

 been

 a

 centr al

 inter est

 of

 African

 go v ernments,

 y oung

 people,

 and their

 families.

 Y outh

 employment 1

  is

 also curr ently

 the

 subject

 of

 consider able

 policy , r esear ch,

 and

 pr actitioner

 inter est

 (e.g.,

 C T A

 et

 al.,

 2014;

 Filmer

 and

 F o x,

 2014;

 IDRC,

 2015;

 Losch,

 2016;

 The

 W orld Bank,

 2009,

 2018; Y eboah,

 2018).

 The

 “y outh

 emplo yment” crisis

 now

 f eatur es

 centr ally

 in

 most discussions

 about

 labor

 mark ets

 and

 public policy

 in

 sub-Sahar an

 Africa. 2

 The

 growing momentum

 behind

 the

 idea

 of

 “inv esting

 in

 youth ”

 has

 led

 t o

 a

 pr olif er ation

 of

 y outh- specific

 and

 y outh-tar geted

 inter v entions.

  Howe v er ,

 the

 fr aming

 of

 the

 pr oblem as

 a

 “y outh

 emplo yment”

 crisis

 means many

 inter ventions

 ar e

 r elativ ely

 small and

 narrowly

 tar geted,

 especially

 when international

 development

 par tners

 ar e

 inv olv ed.

 Many

 ha ve

 limited

 r esults

 and

 fail

 t o addr ess

 the

 structur al

 issues

 that

 inhibit

 the cr eation

 of

 quality

 jobs.

 The

 “it’ s

 all

 about

 the youth ”

 fr aming

 ignor es

 the

 fact

 that

 y oung people

 ar e

 in

 fact

 caught

 up

 in

 a

 br oader African

 “ missing

 jobs”

 crisis

 that

 r eflects fundamental

 structur al

 constr aints

 within African

 economies.

  W e

 ar e

 not

 the

 first

 t o

 r aise

 these

 concerns and

 call

 for

 structur al

 change

 t o

 bolster the

 demand

 side

 of

 the

 labor

 mark et (Betcherman

 and

 Khan,

 2018;

 Filmer

 and F o x,

 2014;

 Flynn

 et

 al.,

 2017).

 It is

 also

 the case

 that,

 outside

 the

 youth

 employment

 discussion,

 much

 has

 been

 written about

 the need

 t o

 incr ease

 employment

 oppor tunities for

 all

 Africans

 (Monga

 et

 al.,

 2019).

  The

 contribution

 of

 this

 paper

 is

 t o

 bring t ogether

 e vidence

 fr om

 a

 wide

 r ange

 of sour ces;

 indicate

 wher e

 the

 e vidence suppor ts

 the

 curr ent

 policy

 or thodoxy

 and wher e

 it

 does

 not; and

 map

 out

 an

 alternative policy

 narr ativ e

 and

 policy

 landscape.

 Ther e is

 no

 doubt

 that

 t oo

 many

 y oung

 people

 ha ve

 difficulty

 finding

 work that

 pr o vides

 a satisfact or y

 liv elihood.

 Howe v er ,

 we

 ar gue that

 this

 is

 only

 one

 aspect

 of

 the

 br oader employment

 crisis.

 In

 other wor ds,

 the pr oblem

 is

 with

 the

 economy

 and

 “ missing jobs”

 for

 ev er y one—not

 just

 for

 y oung

 people.

 Below ,

 we

 critically

 interr ogate

 the

 dominant narr ativ e

 about

 youth

 employment

 in

 sub-Sahar an

 Africa,

 looking

 acr oss

 fiv e dimensions:

 demogr aphy ,

 violence

 and

 civil unr est,

 tr aining

 and

 skills,

 entr epr eneurship in

 the

 urban

 ser vice

 economy ,

 and

 the

 rur al economy .

 This

 dominant

 narr ativ e

 ma y

 be

 summed

 up

 as

 something

 lik e:

 ther e

 ar e

 (t oo)

  1

 In

 this

 paper ,

 y outh

 is

 defined

 as

 people

 between

 the

 ages of

 15-24.

 Recognizing

 that

 y outh

 is

 a

 social construct,

 and

 not

 all

 y outh

 tr ansition

 int o adulthood

 at

 the

 same

 time

 or

 in

 the

 same

 way ,

 we

 nonetheless

 find

 that

 the

 U.N. ’ s

 demogr aphic

 designation

 of

 y outh

 as

 within

 the

 age

 r ange

 of 15-24

 pr o vides

 enough

 homogeneity

 with

 r espect

 t o

 challenges

 and

 oppor tunities

 in

 the

 labor

 mark et,

 as

 well

 as

 public

 policy

 and

 pr ogr ammatic initiativ es,

 t o

 be

 useful

 for

 this

 paper.

 2

 In

 this

 paper ,

 the

 term

 “ Africa ”

 r ef ers

 t o

 sub-Sahar an

 Africa

 only.

 many

 y oung

 people

 in

 sub-Sahar an

 Africa; when

 “idle, ”

 they

 ar e

 easily

 dr awn

 int o

 crime and

 violence;

 they

 can ’t

 get

 the

 jobs

 that ar e

 a v ailable

 because

 they

 lack

 technical and

 soft

 skills

 and

 ther efor e

 need

 tr aining; they

 ar e

 innately

 inno v ativ e,

 and

 ther efor e their

 entr epr eneurial

 potential

 needs

 t o

 be

 awak ened;

 and

 they

 ar e

 a verse

 t o

 agricultur e. This

 narr ativ e

 suggests

 that

 the

 crisis

 is

 v er y much

 “y outh-specific ”

 (Ir win

 et

 al.,

 2018): Y oung

 people

 ar e

 both

 the

 pr oblem

 and

 the solution,

 and

 thus

 y outh-specific

 or

 y outh- tar geted

 inter ventions

 must

 be

 prioritiz ed.

 W e

 pr opose

 a

 counternarr ativ e

 that

 locates the

 fundamental

 pr oblem

 not

 with

 y oung Africans,

 but

 with

 the

 structur e

 of

 African economies,

 which

 pr o vide

 far

 t oo

 f ew oppor tunities

 for

 decent

 work for

 people

 of

 all

 ages.

 Thus,

 the

 so-called

 youth employment

 pr oblem

 cannot

 be

 solv ed in

 isolation

 fr om

 the

 major

 economic

 challenges

 that

 countries

 face

 t oda y .

 Indeed, a

 focus

 on

 y outh-tar geted

 inter ventions actually

 distr acts

 policymak ers

 and stak eholders

 fr om

 dev eloping

 the

 policy agenda

 for

 structur al

 change.

 Only

 a

 wider set

 of

 policy

 options

 that

 giv e

 priority t o tackling

 br oader

 structur al

 issues

 has

 the potential

 t o

 deliv er

 much

 bigger

 r esults,

 for people

 of

 all

 ages.

 The

 dominant

 narr ativ e

 and curr ent

 e vidence

 Demogr aphics as

 thr eat

 and oppor tunity

 The

 demogr aphic

 “fact”

 at

 the

 hear t

 of contemporary

 inter est

 in

 youth

 employment in

 sub-Sahar an

 Africa

 is

 Africa ’ s

 r elativ e y outhfulness—interpr eted

 variously

 as

 an oppor tunity ,

 a

 thr eat,

 or

 both—due t o

 a

 slow and

 late

 demogr aphic

 tr ansition

 (see

 Figur e 1).

 The

 oft-r epeated

 claim

 that

 “ Africa

 is

 the

 y oungest

 continent”

 and

 the

 image

 of

 a “y outh

 bulge ”

 ar e

 foundational

 t o

 the

 crisis narr ativ e

 around

 youth

 employment

 (e.g., Gates

 and

 Gates,

 2019;

 Gyimah-Br empong and

 Kimenyi,

 2013;

 NEP AD ,

 2016),

 even though

 the

 fact

 of

 lar ge

 shar es

 of

 y oung people

 entering

 the

 labor

 mark et

 is

 neither new

 nor specific

 t o

 sub-Sahar an

 Africa.

 The

 element

 of

 thr eat

 and

 crisis

 is

 commonly offset

 in

 policy

 discussions

 b y

 hopes

 for

 a

 “ demogr aphic

 dividend”:

 a

 one-off economic

 windfall

 associated

 with

 the “bulge ”

 generation

 successfully

 entering

 the labor

 mark et, earning

 a

 good

 income,

 and sa ving

 and

 inv esting

 that

 income

 in

 the

 next gener ation,

 which

 is

 smaller ,

 owing

 t o

 lower f er tility

 (see

 Drummond

 et

 al.,

 2014).

 T o gain

 this

 dividend—which

 ma y ,

 accor ding

 t o one

 estimate

 (UNFP A,

 2014),

 be

 wor th

 up

 t o

 $500

 billion

 per

 year

 in

 sub-Sahar an

 Africa, or

 about

 one-thir d

 of

 the

 r egion ’ s

 GD P ,

 for

 30 y ears—would

 r equir e

 the

 “right” inv estments, typically

 in

 education

 and

 tr aining.

 Y oung

 people ’ s

 pr oductivity ,

 it

 is

 often

 ar gued,

 would be

 accelerated

 b y

 their

 gr eater

 capacity ,

 as “ digital

 nativ es”

 t o

 engage

 with

 information and

 communication

 technologies

 (ICT s) (A GRA,

 2015).

  Y et

 a

 mor e

 nuanced

 interpr etation

 of demogr aphic

 tr ends

 shows

 that

 both

 the

 siz e of

 the

 “bulge ”

 and

 the

 attendant

 demogr aphic dividend,

 ma y

 be

 o v er estimated.

 The

 youth

 shar e

 of

 both

 the

 whole

 population and

 the

 working-age

 population

 in

 Africa was

 indeed

 lar ge

 at

 its

 peak

 but

 has

 been declining

 for

 some

 time

 (see

 Figur e

 1),

 albeit at

 diff er ent

 r ates

 in

 diff er ent

 countries. 3 Owing

 t o

 lower labor

 for ce

 participation

 of

 school-aged

 y outh,

 the

 youth

 shar e

 of the

 emplo y ed

 population

 is

 24

 per cent t oda y

 (IL OST A T).

 The

 likelihood

 of

 r ealizing a

 lar ge

 demogr aphic

 dividend

 is

 also debatable,

 as

 it

 would

 r equir e

 a

 far

 mor e r apid

 decline

 in

 f er tility

 and

 an

 associated lar ger

 rise

 in

 sa vings

 than

 is

 curr ently pr ojected

 for

 sub-Sahar an

 Africa

 (Lee

 and Mason,

 2011;

 Y azbeck

 et

 al.,

 2015).

 This

 is because

 the

 labor

 for ce

 needs

 t o

 be

 able

 3

 A

 version

 of

 Figur e

 1

 with

 country

 disaggr egation

 would

 show

 substantial

 r egional

 variation

 acr oss

 sub-Sahar an

 Africa,

 owing

 t o

 variation

 in

 the speed

 of

 f ertility

 decline.

 Howev er ,

 only

 the

 Republic

 of

 South

 Africa

 is

 well

 below

 the

 sub-Sahar an

 African

 line,

 following

 closely

 the

 path

 of

 South Asia.

 Ghana

 is

 slightly

 below

 the

 r egional

 a v er age

 t oday ,

 and

 Ethiopia

 and

 K eny a

 ar e

 pr ojected

 t o

 fall

 below

 the

 pr ojected

 r egional

 a v er age

 by

 2025, while

 Niger

 and

 the

 Democr atic

 Republic

 of

 the

 Congo

 ar e

 pr ojected

 t o

 r emain

 well

 abov e

 it

 thr ough

 2050.

  Figur e

 1:

 Y outh

 (ages

 15-24)

 shar e

 of

 working-age

 population,

 actual

 and

 projected

 b y

 r egion

 P eaks

 40%

 35%

 30%

 25%

 20%

 15%

 1950

  1960

  1970

  1980

  1990

  2000

  2010

  2020

  2030

  2040

  2050

  Note:

 U.N.

 projections after 2019.

 Sour ce:

 United

 Nations W orld P opulation prospects 2019

 (Medium V ariant).

 t o

 earn

 incr easingly

 mor e

 income

 r elativ e t o

 household

 consumption

 t o

 suppor t

 the inv estments

 needed

 for

 the

 dividend,

 but

 a

 r apidly

 growing

 labor

 for ce

 depr esses

 wages and

 priv ate

 sa vings.

 As

 a

 r esult,

 slowly declining

 dependency

 r atios

 and

 a

 high degree

 of

 informality—wher e

 earnings

 rise slowly

 and

 skills

 do

 not

 earn

 as

 high

 a

 r eturn as

 in

 formal

 emplo yment—limit, if

 not

 er ase, the

 potential

 African

 dividend.

 Inv estments in

 tr aining

 will

 not

 change

 this

 pattern;

 only br oad-based

 economic

 development

 t o cr eate

 mor e

 demand

 for

 labor

 in

 the

 formal sect or ,

 combined

 with

 slower

 gr owth

 of

 the

 labor

 for ce

 will

 change

 the

 pattern,

 a

 t opic

 we will

 r eturn

 t o

 below .

 Unemplo yment

 leads t o

 violence and

 unr est

 Another r eason

 policymak ers

 ha ve

 focused attention

 on

 Africa ’ s

 youth

 is

 a

 pr esumed

 link

 between

 the

 lack

 of

 employment oppor tunities

 for

 y oung

 people

 on

 the

 one hand,

 and

 political

 violence,

 ...

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