下面是小编为大家整理的美国电信业：解密新秩序,供大家参考。
F u t ure
world
order : Comca st’s r i sk-r eward
pro f ile
appealing
but Di s h ’s loo ks c loud y; sy nergie s a t T MU S hinge
on
e x e c u t ion
I mmedia t e
world
order : VZ’s di v idend s and
por tf olio
m i x pro v ide c om f or t bu t m obile
c ompe t i t ion
s e t t o
in t en s i fy Comca st i s our pre f erred
st o ck; D IS H
i s our lea st; we
ha v e
Hold ra t ing s on
T MU S, V eri z on , AT&T and
CH T R ; r e v i s e
TPs
Littl e
did w e
k now … when
we
publi s hed
our repor t A c hange
i s in
order (13
No v ember 2019) , t ha t we
were
abou t t o
s ee
a
st ru ct urall y di ff eren t 2020 . I n
t hi s no t e , we
pre s en t our in v e st men t t he s i s on
t he
enlarged
T MU S ( po st S prin t t a k eo v er) ; we
ou t line
our t hough ts f or t he
t elecoms under our co v erage , loo k ing
a t t he
c ompanie s’ pro s pe cts f or t he
immedia t e
f u t ure
and
t he
f ar f u t ure ; and
we
r e v iew
our e st ima t e s in
ligh t o f t he C OVI D-19
di sr up t ion , pre s en t ing
sc enario s on
t he
po t en t ial
impa ct. I mme di ate
a nd futu re
wo r ld o r d ers . Am id
t he
C OVI D-19-led
di sr up t ion , demand
f or conne ct i v i ty, s o
f ar , appears t o
be
r ela t i v el y r e s ilien t. Est ima t ing
t he
pro s pe cts f or t he immedia t e
and
f ar f u t ure
f or t he
U S t ele c om indu st ry doe s pre s en ts s ome
c omple x i ty (s ee
page s 10-19) gi v en
t he
di v erse
bu s ine ss in t ere sts and
e x po s ure s; howe v er , we
do s ee
oppor t uni t ie s. W e
s ee
Comca st’s r i sk-r eward
pro f ile
as
r ela t i v el y m ore
a tt ra ct i v e t han
t ho s e
o f i ts peers . A l t hough
V eri z on
doe s st and
ou t gi v en
i ts r ela t i v el y lower e x po s ure
t o
non-mobile
and
c onne ct i v i ty bu s ine ss e s, lower le v erage
and
de c en t di v idend s, we
e x pe ct i t t o
f a c e
in t en s i f ied
c ompe t i t ion
in
m obile . F or T MU S, we
r emain c au t iou s on
t he
quan t um o f sy nergie s t ha t m a y be
r eali z ed
and
e x e c u t ion
r emain s k e y, bu t we
t hin k t he y m a y st ill
be
m eaning f ul . W e
r emain
unen t hu s ia st i c abou t D IS H ’s pro s pe cts in
m obile . E stimate
a nd t ar g et pr i ce
c h a ng es . W e
upda t e
our e st ima t e s, f a ct oring
in de v elopmen ts around
C OVI D-19
and
t he
r e c en t r e s ul ts. O ur wors t c a s e
sc enario s ugge sts 2-6%
down s ide
t o
our t arge t pri c e s. F ollowing
our e st ima t e
r e v i s ion s and rolling
f orward
our valua t ion s, we
r e v i s e
our t arge t pri c e s a s s hown
in
t he
t able
below and
de t ailed
on
page s 31-37 . W e
k eep
our ra t ing s un c hanged
wi t h
a
B u y on
Comca st, Redu c e
on
Di s h
and
Hold
r a t ing s on
A l t i c e
U SA, AT&T, Char t er , T MU S and
V eri z on .
Key
cha ng es
to ratings
a nd estimates
1
J une
2020
Sunil
Rajgopal Analyst,
TMT
HSBC
Securities
(USA)
Inc. sunilrajgopal@us.hsbc.com
+1
212
525
0267
Nicolas
Cote-Colisson* Senior
Analyst,
TMT HSBC
Bank
plc
nicolas.cote-colisson@hsbcib.com
+44
20
7991
6826
Christian
Fangmann* Analyst,
Telecoms
HSBC
Trinkaus
&
Burkhardt
AG christian.fangmann@hsbc.de
+49
211
910
2002
Neale
Anderson*
Head
of
Telecoms
Research,
Asia
Pacific
The
Hongkong
and
Shanghai
Banking
Corporation
Limited neale.anderson@hsbc.com.hk
+852
2996
6716
*
Employed
by
a
non-US
affiliate
of
HSBC
Securities
(USA)
Inc,
and
is not
registered/
qualified
pursuant
to
FINRA
regulations
Company
Ticker
Rating
Old
New Latest CCY Price _ Target Price
Old New Implied Upside/ Downside Mkt Cap (USDm)
EV/EBITDA
2020e 2021e Net Debt/EBITDA
_ 2020e 2021e Altice USA ATUS.N Hold Hold USD 25.21 28.00 28.00 11.1% 22,623 10.5 10.5 5.2 5.2 AT&T T.N Hold Hold USD 31.06 42.00 32.00 3.0% 221,303 7.1 7.0 2.6 2.5 Charter CHTR.OQ Hold Hold USD 534.67 430.00 500.00 -6.5% 110,389 11.0 10.4 4.5 4.3 Comcast CMCSA.OQ Buy Buy USD 39.55 52.00 45.00 13.8% 180,139 8.9 7.9 3.1 2.6 Dish DISH.OQ Reduce Reduce USD 31.18 26.00 26.00 -16.6% 19,893 13.5 15.3 4.5 5.0 TMUS TMUS.OQ Hold Hold USD 99.22 86.00 102.00 2.8% 122,612 9.3 7.9 3.1 2.6 Verizon VZ.N Hold Hold USD 55.72 65.00 57.00 2.3% 230,569 7.5 7.2 2.2 2.0 Note: Latest prices as of close at 28 May 2020. Source: HSBC estimates, Refinitiv Datastream
Disclosures
&
Disclaimer
This
report
must
be
read
with
the
disclosures
and
the
analyst
certifications
in the
Disclosure
appendix,
and
with
the
Disclaimer,
which
forms
part
of
it.
Issuer of report: HSBC Securities (USA) Inc
View HSBC Global Research at: https://www.research.hsbc.com US
Telecoms
Equities
Diversified
Decrypting
the
new
order;
compelling
stories
hard
Telecommunications
to
find
Unite d States
Decry pting t he
new TMUS
S prin t t akeo v er presen ts po t en ti al
m a te rial
sy nergies , bu t we
rem ain cautiou s on
o v erall
quan tum; m uch
appears t o
be
priced
in
Ex ecution
ke y t o
wa tch; sho rt -term , FCF likely
t o
be
lim it ed ; m edium term , we
see
cUS D5bn
run-rate on
sy nergies
and
USD14bn
in integration
c o sts O ur TP o f USD102
for T MUS
implie s 6 . 3 x 2023
EV/EBIT D A; blue- sky scenario
f air
v alue
implie s c 20%
upside
The ne w TMUS
COVID-19 may provide more leverage to negotiate better lease terms
…focus likely to be on gaining competitive and mind-share advantages Four-to-three
… the
p ath was
not easy; synergy
opportuniti es
rema in materia l Aft er 23
m on t h s o f wai t ing
and
r egula t ory challenge s, T MU S’s and
S prin t’s m erger f inall y s u cc eeded , and
T MU S st ar t ed
c on s olida t ing
S prin t f rom 1
A pril
2020 . I n
t hi s r epor t, we
ou t line
our view s on
t he enlarged
T MU S ( New
T MU S) and
upda t e
our e st ima t e s t o
r e f le ct t he
S prin t c on s olida t ion . Aft er t he merger , we
s ee
T MU S a s being
on
a
be tt er f oo t ing
in
t erms o f s pe ct rum holding s and
s ub scr iber share
v ersu s i ts c ompe t i t ion . As we
s e t ou t in
our pre v iou s r epor ts – s ee
M ara t hon
( almo st) a t t he f ini s h
line
( 11
F ebruary 2020) and
I n s pe ct ing
k nown
un k nown s ( 29
J ul y 2019) – we
e x pe ct t he c ombina t ion
wi t h
S prin t will
help
t o
dri v e
m a t erial
sy nergie s. Th e
CO V ID-19
situation , in
our view , po s e s c hallenge s to th e
indu stry o v erall
in
th e
s hor t t erm bu t m a y pre s en t oppor t uni ti e s f or T MUS
and
i ts peers to re c on s ider t heir bu s ine ss m odel s, pa rt i c ularl y for t heir re ta il
f oo t prin ts, po t en t iall y f a v oring
s ervi c e
and
s ale s v ia
digi t al
c hannel s ra th er than
in
ph ys i c al
st ore s. De v elopmen ts in
o t her coun t rie s – f or e x ample , Virgin
M edia (owned
b y Libe rty Gl obal) ha s de c ided
t o
permanen t l y c lo s e
i ts 53
st ore s in
t he
UK
(G uardian , 28 Ma y 2020) and
V oda fo ne
is
c ommi tte d
to r edu c ing
i ts r e t ail
fo o t prin t b y 15%
a cr o ss E urope
o v er the
ne xt th ree
y ears – suppor t our view
f or U S te l c o s t o
m eaning fu l
r a t ionali z e
th eir re ta il fo o tp rin ts. W e
would
e x pe ct t hi s t o
help
t o
dri v e
down
c o sts. W e
al s o
e x pe ct T MUS ’s now
larger scale
and
t he
COVID- 19
di s rup t ion
to pro v ide
t he
c ompan y wi th m ore
le v erage
t o
nego ti a t e
be tter lea s e
t erms f or the
ph ys i c al
st ore s i t de c ide s t o
k eep . On 5 G, we
e x pe ct TM US
t o
f o c u s on
gaining
c ompe t i tiv e
and
m ind-share
ad v an t age s v ersu s i ts c ompe t i ti on
wi th wider 5 G c o v er
age,
u s ing
i ts 2 .5G Hz
o f low
band
s pe ctrum. Veri z on
i s rolling
ou t i ts 5 G o ff ering
u s ing
i ts millime t er-wa v e
s pe ctrum and
will
li k el y need
a cc e ss to 3 .5G Hz
o f s pe ctrum f or a
m u c h
wider co v erage , whi c h
we
t hin k will
t a k e
t ime
to s o rt ou t. For t he
immedia t e
hori z on , we
e x pe ct TM US ’s m anagemen t to foc u s on
sy nergie s e x e c u ti on , ne tw ork in t egra t ion
and
th e
5 G rollou t. On synergies , th e
c ompan y an tic ipa tes NPV o f sy nergie s t o
be
c USD43bn
(ne t o f USD15bn
in
in t egra t ion
c o sts ) , dri v en
b y USD6bn
runra t e
o f c o st s a v ing s o v ertime
(3-4
y ears f rom clo s e) , bu t th e
COVID- 19
s i tu a t ion , d y nami c na t ure
o f t he s e ct or , li k el y en t ry o f D IS H
and
st ead y in c rea s e s in
c ompe tit ion
f rom cable
lead
u s t o
be
s ligh tly m ore
c au ti ou s on
t he
c o st -sa v ing
run-ra tes.
For
in tegration c o sts , we
a ss ume
USD14bn ; howe v e r, TM U S’s now
larger scale
and
an y progre ss on
D IS H ’s ne t work rollou t ( i f D IS H
agree s t o
t a k e
on
s ome
t he
de c ommi ss ioned
s i t e s) m a y cr ea t e
s ome
o ffs e ts t ha t r edu c e
in t egra t ion
c o sts. During
t he
r e c en t r e s ul ts c on f eren c e
c all
( 6
M a y 2020) , T MU S’s m anagemen t r emained
c on f iden t on
m ee t ing
or e xc eeding
t he
sy nerg y t arge ts.
Potentia l f or
futu re
synergies: HSBC
vs
compa n y
gui dance
(USDm) Company guidance HSBC base case HSBC blue-sky scenario Run-rate synergies
Cost of sales 4.0 3.1 6.1 SG&A/Others 2.0 2.2 5.5 Integration years 3-4 4 5-6 Costs to achieve 15,000 ~14,200 ~29,000 NPV of synergies net of integration costs (assuming ~8% WACC) ~43,000+ ~37,000 ~68,000 Source: Company data, HSBC estimates
On capex , T MUS
ha s guided
f or USD40bn
o f in v e st men ts o v er t hree
y ears and
USD60bn
o v er five
y ears . W e
belie v e
t he
ta rge te d
in v e st men ts c lo s el y align
wi th th e
c ompe tit ion
and
s hould addre ss an y c on c ern s th a t stemm ed
f rom Sprin t’s hi st ori c al
under in v e st men ts in
i ts ne tw orks . W e
fo re c a st T MUS ’s ne tw ork cape x o v er 20...
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