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Con t en ts
T ables, F igur es,
and
Bo x es
v
For e w or d
ix
A ckno wledgments
xi
A uthor
P r o files
xiv
Abbr e via tions
x vii
1. I ntroduction
1
1.1 R apid
E conomic
T r ansf orma tion
3 1.2 O il Boom
2004–2014
6 1.3 Slo wdown
fr om
2015 t o
2017
8 1.4 Go v ernmen t
R ef orm
I nitia tiv es
11 1.5 The
S tr a t e gic
R oad
Maps
on
the
N a tional
E c onom y
P er spectiv e
14 and
Main
Sect or s
o f
the
E c onom y
1.6 I nitial
R esults
o f
D iv ersifying
in t o
Agricultur e
and
T ourism
15 R ef erenc es
18 2. The
Gr o wth
D iagnos tics
F r ame w ork
19
2.1 H igh
Cost
o f
F inanc e
21 2.2 I nsufficien t
I n vestmen ts
in
H uman
Capit al
and
I nfr astructur e
30 2.3 Go v ernmen t
F ailur es
40 2.4 Mark et F ailur es
48 2.5 Conclusions
and
P olicy
R ec ommendations
54 R ef erenc es
61 3. Str engthening
H uman
Capital
63
3.1 D emo gr aphic
T r ends
and
Labor
Mark et As ses smen t
63 3.2 Challenges
in
E duc a tion
75 3.3 Challenges
in
Skills
D ev elopmen t
80 3.4 R eview
o f
P olicies
and
P r o gr ams
83 3.5 Conclusions
and
P olicy
R ec ommendations
91 R ef erenc es
94
4. Enhancing
Infr as tructur e
f or
E c onomic
D iv er sification
97
and
Competitiv enes s 4.1 I nfr astructur e
V it al
t o
the
D ev elopmen t
B lueprin t
98 4.2 I nfr astructur e
D ev elopmen t:
T aking
S t ock
101 4.3 P ublic
I n vestmen t
in
I nfr astructur e
120 4.4 I nstitutional
R ef orms
f or
Smar t
P ublic
I n vestmen ts
122 4.5 P ricing
I nfr astructur e
Servic es,
I nfr astructur e
Main t enance,
125 and
E conomic
R e gula tions
f or
I nfr astructur e
4.7 Conclusions
and
P olicy
R ec ommendations
135 R ef erenc es
137 5. T r ansf orming
S ta te- Owned
Enterprises
into
Engines
o f
Gr o wth
138
5.1 O il Shock
Exposes
SOE
W eaknes ses
139 5.2 Go v ernmen t
R ef orms
t o
R aise
SOE
E fficiency
142 5.3 Ov erview
o f
SOE
I nefficiency
143 5.4 F iscal
I mplic a tions
o f
U nderperforming
SOEs
150 5.5 I mpact
o f
the
P erf ormanc e
o f
SOEs
on
the
E c onom y
155 5.6 Conclusions
and
P olicy
R ec ommendations
161 R ef erenc es
167 6. Concluding
Remarks
168
R ef erenc es
173 Appendix
1:
The
Basic E c onomics
o f
D utch D isease
174
R ef erenc es
175 Appendix
2:
D iv er sification
and
Gr o wth
o f
R esour c e-Rich
E c onomies:
176 A us tr alia ’ s Experienc e
R ef erenc es
192
T ables ,
F igur es ,
and
Bo x es
T ables
1.1 Major
P roduction
Sect or s,
1992–2018
4 1.2 Expenditur e
Components,
1991–2017
5 1.3 Emplo ymen t
Shar es
and
P roductivity
b y
Sect or,
2000–2016
9 2.1 W orld
E conomic
F orum
I nfr astructur e
I ndic a t or s:
36 Az erbaijan
and
Compar a t or
Countries,
2017 2.2 S urv e y
R esults
o f
T op
Busines s
En vironmen t
O bst acles
41 f or
F irms,
2013 2.3 T r ading
Acr os s
Border s
I ndic a t or s
f or
Az erbaijan
42 and
Compar a t or
Countries,
2017 2.4 External
I ndic a t or s
2005–2017
46 3.1 T ot al
P opula tion b y
Age
Gr oup,
2019
64 3.2 P opula tion and
W ork
F or c e
Ov erview,
1990–2017
66 3.3 D istribution
o f
Emplo y ed
b y
Sect or,
2017
68 3.4 Gr os s
D omestic
P r oduct per
Capit a
and
Labor
P r oductivity,
69 1995–2017 3.5 Gr os s
D omestic
P r oduct and
Emplo ymen t
S tructur e,
1995–2017
70 3.6 Mapping
O c cupa tions
and
T asks
t o
Skills
and
E duc a tion
72 3.7 T ypes
o f
Skills
Misma t ch
74 3.8 E duc a tion Spending
Br eak down,
2018
76 3.9 Admis sion
Quot a
t o
U niv ersities
b y
Specialty
80 and
E duc a tion I nstitutions,
2015/16
Ac ademic
Year
3.10 D istribution
o f
Enr olled
S tuden ts
b y
E duc a tion L ev el,
2010–2017
82 3.11 P r o f es sional
T r aining
o f
Labor
F or c e,
2012–2017
82 3.12 Voc a tional
E duc a tion and
T r aining
f or
the
U nemplo y ed
83 4.1 T argets
and
P riorities
o f
the
S tr a t e gic
R oad
Map
113 on
the
D ev elopmen t
o f
T elec ommunic a tion and
I nf orma tion T echnolo gies
5.1 SOE
P riv a tiza tion R ev enue,
2015–2017
143 5.2 The
14 As ses sed
SOEs
144 5.3 F inancial
P erf ormanc e
o f
SOEs
146 5.4 Go v ernmen t’ s
F iscal
P osition
and
SOE
P erf ormanc e
150 5.5 F iscal
I mpact
o f
I mpr o ved
SOE
P erf ormanc e
151 5.6 R ela t ed-P ar ty P a yables
o f
SOEs,
2016–2017
153 5.7 F iscal
Risk
As ses smen t
o f
SOE
Sect or s,
2016
154 5.8 A v ailability
o f
Externally
A udit ed
R eports,
2016
158 5.9 I nstitutions
R esponsible
f or
SOE
Ov er sigh t
and
Managemen t
159
A2.1 R anking
o f
E c onomies
b y
Gr os s
N a tional
I ncome
per
Capit a, P ur chasing
P ow er
P arity,
Curr en t
I n t erna tional
D ollar s,
178
1950–2017
A2.2 A ver age
Most-F a v or ed-N a tion T ariff s
on
Agricultur al
179
and
N on- Agricultur e
P r oducts,
2016
A2.3 P er
Capit a
V alue
o f
R esour c es,
W ealth
and
I ncome,
A ustr alia,
180
Az erbaijan,
and
Other Countries,
2014
A2.4 Sect or
Shar es
o f
Expor ts
and
R evealed
Compar a tiv e
Adv an t age
180
I ndex,
A ustr alia,
1950–2016
A2.5 T r ade
P r opensity,
and
D irection
and
I ndex
o f
I n t ensity
181
o f
A ustr alia’ s
Mer chandise
T r ade,
1951–2016
F igur es
1.1 Gr os s
D omestic
P r oduct Gro wth and
Gr os s
O il
2 and
N on-O il V alue
Added,
1991–2018 1.2 Gro wth o f
Gr os s
D omestic
P r oduct o f
O il
2 and
N on-O il Sect or s,
1991–2018 1.3 Gr os s
N a tional
I ncome
per
Capit a
and
O il R en ts,
1995–2016
3 1.4 Expor ts
b y
Sect or,
1992–2017
6 1.5 N ominal
and
E ff ectiv e
Mana t
Ex change
Ra t e
ver sus
the
D ollar,
8 2000–2018 1.6 Labor
P roductivity
Con tribution t o
Gro wth, 2000–2016
10 1.7 A ver age
W orld
O il P ric e
and
Az erbaijan ’ s
11 Crude
O il P roduction,
1995–2017 1.8 R eal
I n t erna tional
Crude
O il P ric e
( J anuary
2019 $),
1968–2018
11 1.9 Expor ts
and
I mpor ts
o f
Agricultur e
and
F ood
P r oducts,
1992–2016
16 1.10 Shar es
o f
T ourism
and
T r a vel
Servic es
in
17 T ot al
Expor ts
o f
Goods
and
Servic es,
2000–2016 2.1 Gro wth D iagnostics
D ecision
T r ee
20 2.2 Sect or
Br eak down
o f
L oans
23 2.3 A ver age
L ending
I n t erest
Ra t es
in
Az erbaijan
24 and
Selected
Countries,
2003–2017 2.4 A ver age
D eposit
I n t erest
Ra t es
in
Az erbaijan
25 and
Selected
Countries,
2003–2017 2.5 A ver age
I n t erest
Ra t e
Spreads
in
Az erbaijan
26 and
Selected
Countries,
2003–2017 2.6 Cr edit
t o
the
E c onom y
b y
Ma turity
and
Curr ency,
2004–2018
27 2.7 Gr os s
Enr ollmen t
Ra tios,
1991–2017
30 2.8 E duc a tion A tt ainmen t
o f
the
Emplo y ed,
2009–2013
33 2.9 A ver age
Monthly N ominal
W ages
and
Salaries
b y
Sect or,
35 2007–2016 2.10 Lo gistics
P erf ormanc e
I ndex,
2016
38
2.11 I ncome
and
Corpor a t e
T ax
Ra t es
in
Az erbaijan
40 and
Selected
Countries,
2018 2.12 S t a t e
O il F und
T r ansfer s
t o
the
S t a t e
Budget,
2003–2017
43 2.13 F iscal
Balanc e
with and
without S t a t e
O il F und
T r ansfer s,
44 1995–2017 2.14 Annual
A ver age
I nfla tion, 1996–2017
45 2.15 F or eign
D irect
I n vestmen t,
2001–2017
46 2.16 PR OD Y
I ndex
f or
Major
Expor t
P r oducts,
2011
49 2.17 EXPY
I ndex
and
Expor t
P erf ormanc e
in
Az erbaijan
50 and
Selected
Countries,
2011 2.18 E conomic
Complexity
I ndex
and
E conomic
Complexity
I ndex+
51 o f
Az erbaijan
and
Selected
Countries,
2011–2015 2.19 P r oduct Space
Map
f or
Az erbaijan,
N orw a y,
and
I ndonesia,
52 1995 and
2016 3.1 P opula tion Composition
and
D ependency
Ra tio,
1990–2030
64 3.2 W ork
F or c e
Siz e
and
P ar ticipa tion Ra t e
b y
Gender,
1990–2017
66 3.3 Labor
F or c e
b y
Age
Group
and
E duc a tional
A tt ainmen t,
2017
67 3.4 Most P r oblema tic
F act or s
f or
D oing
Busines s,
2017
71 3.5 Share
o f
Emplo ymen t
b y
Sect or,
2017
73 3.6 Emplo ymen t
b y
O c cupa tion and
Skills
Ca t e gory,
2017
73 3.7 E duc a tional
A tt ainmen t
and
Share
o f
Emplo ymen t
74 b y
Sect or
f or
Emplo y ed
Y outh, 2018 3.8 E duc a tion Spending
in
Az erbaijan
and
Eur ope
76 and
Cen tr al
Asia,
1998–2018 3.9 Share
o f
H igher
E duc a tion and
Voc a tional
E duc a tion
77 and
T r aining
Spending
in
T ot al
S t a t e
E duc a tion Spending,
2014–2018 3.10 E duc a tion I ndex
Az erbaijan
and
Selected
Countries,
2017
78 4.1 I nland
T r anspor t
I nfr astructur e
I n vestmen t
103 as
a
P er c en t age
o f
Gr os s
D omestic
P r oduct, 2012–2016 4.2 I nland
T r anspor t
I nfr astructur e
I n vestmen t,
103 in
Curr en t
D ollar
per
I nhabit an t,
2012–2016 4.3 R oad
I nfr astructur e
I n vestmen t
104 as
a
P er c en t age
o f
Gr os s
D omestic
P r oduct, 2007–2016 4.4 R oad
I nfr astructur e
I n vestmen t,
in
D ollar
per
I nhabit an t,
104 2002–2016 4.5 R oad
Quality,
2013–2017
105 4.6 R oad
D ensity,
2003–2011
105 4.7 D ensity
o f
R ail
Lines,
2000–2015
107 4.8 R ail
I nfr astructur e
I n vestmen t,
2007–2016
107 4.9 Share
o f
Electrified
R ail
Lines
in
T ot al
R ail
N etw ork,
2000–2015
107 4.10 R ail
Line
Co ver age
and
T raffic
Volume
108 Az erbaijan
and
K azakhst an,
2008–2016
4.11 Electric
P ow er
Consumption,
2003–2014 109 4.12 Electricity
Capacity,
1992–2015 109 4.13 Ac c es s
t o
Basic
D rinking
W a t er
Servic es,
2003–2015 110 4.14 Ac c es s
t o
Basic
Sanit a tion Servic es,
2003–2015 110 4.15 U rban
Ac c es s
t o
Basic
D rinking
W a t er
Servic es,
2003–2015 110 4.16 R ur al
Ac c es s
t o
Basic
D rinking
W a t er
Servic es,
2003–2015 111 4.17 U rban
Ac c es s
t o
Basic
Sanit a tion Servic es,
2003–2015 111 4.18 R ur al
Ac c es s
t o
Basic
Sanit a tion Ser...
