北约与核不扩散与裁军框架:第十届《不扩散核武器条约》审议会挑战

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北约与核不扩散与裁军框架:第十届《不扩散核武器条约》审议会挑战

 

  Cont ents

 Summary

  2

 1

 Intr oduction

  3

 2

 Bac k g r ound

  5

 3

 N A T O

 and

 t he

 NPT

  8

 4

 N A T O:

 t he

 NPT

 and

 t he

 TPNW

  15

 5

 N A T O

 and

 t he

 TPNW :

 Legal

 Issues

  20

 6

 Conclusions

  24

 A bout

 t he

 A ut hor s

  28

 A c kno w ledg ments

  29

  Summary

  •

 The

 10t h

 fiv e-y ear l y

 R evie w

 Conf er ence

 of

 t he

 P ar ties

 t o

 t he

 T r eaty

 on

 t he

 N on-Pr olif er ation of

 N uclear

 W eapons

 (t he

 NPT)

 w as

 due

 t o

 t ak e

 place

 in

 April–Ma y

 2020, but

 has

 been postponed

 because

 of

 t he

 C O VID-19

 pandemic.

 •

 In

 f or ce

 since

 1970

 and

 wit h

 191

 s t at es

 parties,

 t he

 NPT

 is

 hailed

 as

 t he

 cor ner s t one

 of

 a

 r ules-based

 int ernational

 ar ms

 contr ol and

 non-pr olif er ation

 r egime,

 and

 an

 essential

 basis f or

 t he

 pur suit

 of

 nuclear

 disar mament.

 But

 successiv e

 r evie w

 conf er ences

 hav e

 been

 r iv en

 b y

 disag r eement

 be tw een

 t he

 fiv e

 nuclear

 w eapon

 s t at es

 and

 man y

 non-nuclear

 w eapon

 s t at es o v er

 t he

 appr opr iat e

 w a y

 t o

 im plement

 t he

 tr eaty‟ s

 nuclear

 disar mament

 pillar . •

 Alt hough

 t he

 number

 of

 nuclear

 w eapons

 committ ed

 t o

 N A T O

 defence

 has

 been

 r educed

 b y

 o v er

 90

 per

 cent

 since

 t he

 dep t hs

 of

 t he

 Cold

 W ar , N A T O

 nuclear

 w eapon

 s t at es,

 and

 t heir allies

 t hat

 depend

 on

 t he

 doctr ine

 of

 e xt ended

 nuclear

 de t er r ence

 f or

 t heir

 o wn

 defence,

 fa v our continued

 r e t ention

 of

 t he

 r emaining

 nuclear

 w eapons

 until

 t he

 int ernational

 secur ity

 situation is

 conduciv e

 t o

 fur t her

 pr og r ess

 on

 nuclear

 disar mament.

 •

 The

 t es t

 of

 a

 cons tr uctiv e

 NPT

 R evie w

 Conf er ence

 will

 be

 t he

 e xt ent

 t o

 whic h

 br oad

 eng agement can

 be

 ac hiev ed

 on

 how

 and

 wher e

 t o

 find

 common

 g r ound

 on

 pr actical

 w a y s

 f or w ar d

 f or nuclear

 disar mament

 during

 t he

 ne xt

 fiv e-y ear

 r evie w

 cy cle.

 In

 t his

 r eg ar d,

 N A T O

 allies

 ar e lik el y

 t o

 pr omo t e

 t he

 US-led

 Cr eating

 an

 En vir onment

 f or

 N uclear

 Disar mament

 (C END) pr ocess,

 and

 o t her

 ne w

 initiativ es

 wit h

 whic h

 N A T O

 member s

 ar e

 associat ed.

 •

 Though

 no t

 lik el y

 t o

 be

 in

 f or ce

 b y

 t he

 time

 of

 t he

 f or t hcoming

 R evie w

 Conf er ence,

 t he

 r ecent neg o tiation

 of

 t he

 T r eaty

 on

 t he

 Pr ohibition

 of

 N uclear

 W eapons

 (TPNW)

 also

 br ings

 a

 ne w dimension

 t o

 t he

 debat e

 on

 how

 bes t

 t o

 im plement

 t he

 NPT‟s

 nuclear

 disar mament

 pillar . The

 c halleng e

 f or

 t he

 R evie w

 Conf er ence

 will

 be

 t o

 ackno w ledg e

 t hat

 papering

 o v er

 t he diff er ences

 inherent

 in

 t he

 com pe ting

 per spectives

 on,

 and

 appr oac hes

 t o,

 nuclear

 disar mament is

 no t

 a

 desir able

 w a y

 of

 marking

 t he

 firs t

 half-century

 of

 t he

 NPT . N or , mor e

 im por t antl y , will

 it

 help

 pa v e

 t he

 w a y

 t o

 a

 calmer

 g lobal

 secur ity

 en vir onment

 in

 whic h

 t he

 risks

 of

 bo t h

 nuclear pr olif er ation

 and

 use

 of

 nuclear

 w eapons

 ar e

 r educed

 and

 ultimat el y

 eliminat ed.

  1. Intr oduction

  W e

 s tr iv e

 for

 a

 w or ld

 fr ee

 of

 nuclear

 w eapons

 because

 w e

 kno w

 t hese

 w eapons

 pose

 a

 uniq ue and

 po t entiall y

 e xis t ential

 t hr eat

 t o

 our

 plane t.

 W e

 kno w

 an y

 use

 of

 nuclear

 w eapons

 w ould be

 a

 humanit ar ian

 cat as tr ophe.

 UN

 Secr e t AR y -Gener AL

 Ant ónio

 Gut er r es,

 2019 1

 The

 ne xt

 fiv e-y ear l y

 r evie w

 of

 t he

 1968

 T r eaty

 on

 t he

 N on-Pr olif er ation

 of

 N uclear

 W eapons

 (t he

 N on-Pr olif er ation

 T r eaty

 –

 NPT),

 or iginall y

 sc heduled

 f or

 April–Ma y

 2020, has

 been

 postponed because

 of

 t he

 C O VID-19

 pandemic. 2

 The

 R evie w

 Conf er ence,

 when

 cir cums t ances

 allo w

 it

 t o

 t ak e place,

 will

 be

 t he

 firs t

 since

 t he

 adop tion

 of

 t he

 T r eaty

 on

 t he

 Pr ohibition

 of

 N uclear

 W eapons

 (TPNW) in

 Jul y

 2017. A

 number

 of

 NPT

 s t at es

 parties,

 among

 t hem

 t he

 nuclear

 w eapon

 s t at es

 and

 mos t member s

 of

 t he

 N or t h

 A tlantic

 T r eaty

 Or g anization

 (N A T O),

 wit h

 t he

 e x cep tion

 of

 t he

 N e t herlands, 3 c hose

 no t

 t o

 participat e

 in

 t he

 UN

 conf er ence

 t hat

 adop t ed

 t he

 TPNW , r ejecting

 or

 casting

 doubt

 on

 its

 lik el y

 efficacy

 as

 an

 „eff ectiv e

 measur e‟

 f or

 nuclear

 disar mament

 in

 t er ms

 of

 t he

 NPT . 4

 Alt hough

 t he

 TPNW

 has

 no t

 y e t

 enter ed

 int o

 f or ce, 5

 it

 will

 none t heless

 loom

 lar g e

 o v er

 t he

 ne xt NPT

 R evie w

 Conf er ence.

 This

 is

 because

 t he

 TPNW

 has

 serv ed

 t o

 under line

 var ious

 pressur e

 points in

 t he

 NPT

 t hat,

 alt hough

 no t

 ne w , hav e

 no t

 pr eviousl y

 been

 q uit e

 so

 clear

 cut.

 While

 NPT

 parties ar e

 some times

 descr ibed

 as

 t he

 nuclear

 „ha v es ‟ 6

 and

 „ha v e

 no ts ‟ , 7

 a

 sizeable

 number

 of

 t he

 latt er

 ar e

 milit ar il y

 alig ned

 t o

 and

 ar e

 pr o t ect ed

 b y

 t he

 nuclear

 w eapons

 of

 t he

 f or mer

 under

 a

 so-called „nuclear

 umbrella‟ . 8

  1 Gut er r es,

 A . (2019),

 „Remar ks

 at

 Commemor ation

 of

 t he

 Int ernational

 Da y

 f or

 t he

 T o t al

 Elimination

 of

 N uclear

 W eapons ‟ , 26

 Sep t ember

 2019, https://www .un.or g/sg/en/cont ent/sg/speec hes/2019-09-26/commemor ation-of-int-da y -f or -elimination-of-nuclear -w eapons-r emar ks (accessed

 29

 Oct.

 2019).

 2 The

 10t h

 NPT

 R evie w

 Conf er ence

 w as

 due

 t o

 t ak e

 place

 fr om

 27

 April

 t o

 22

 May

 2020, but

 has

 been

 postponed

 in

 light

 of

 t he

 C O VID-19 pandemic.

 As

 of

 May

 2020

 it

 had

 no t

 been

 possible

 t o

 confirm

 t he

 ne w

 dates

 f or

 t he

 R evie w

 Conf er ence:

 in

 lat e

 April

 t he

 Pr esident-desig nat e of

 t he

 2020

 NPT

 R evie w

 Conf er ence,

 Gus t a v o

 Zlauvinen,

 announced

 his

 int ention

 t o

 seek

 –

 on

 t he

 ev entual

 r esum p tion

 of

 activities

 at

 UN headq uar t ers,

 if

 t he

 C O VID-19

 situation

 allo ws

 it

 and

 if

 no

 alt er nativ e

 dates

 can

 be

 confir med

 –

 a

 f or mal

 decision

 fr om

 s t at es

 par ties

 t o

 hold t he

 R evie w

 Conf er ence

 fr om

 4–29

 Januar y

 2021. F or

 fur t her

 de t ails,

 see

 UN OD A

 (2020),

 R evie w

 Conf er ence

 of

 t he

 P ar ties

 t o

 t he

 T r eaty

 on

 t he

 N on-Pr olif er ation

 of

 N uclear

 W eapons

 (NPT),

 https://www .un.or g/en/conf er ences/n p t2020

 (accessed

 11

 May

 2020).

 3 The

 N e t herlands

 w as

 t he

 onl y

 N A T O

 member

 s t at e

 t o

 participat e

 in

 t he

 neg o tiations

 leading

 t o

 t he

 adop tion

 of

 t he

 TPNW . The

 N e t herlands v o t ed

 ag ains t

 t he

 adop tion

 of

 t he

 T r eaty . See

 also

 t he

 N or t h

 A tlantic

 Council‟ s

 S t at ement

 on

 t he

 TPNW :

 N A T O

 (2017),

 „N or t h

 A tlantic

 Council S t at ement

 on

 t he

 T r eaty

 on

 t he

 Pr ohibition

 of

 N uclear

 W eapons ‟ , 20

 Sep t ember

 2017, https://www .nat o.int/cps/en/natohq/ne ws_146954.htm (accessed

 4

 Mar . 2020).

 4 Ar ticle

 VI

 of

 t he

 NPT

 s tipulat es

 t hat

 par ties

 will

 „pursue

 neg o tiations

 in

 g ood

 fait h

 on

 eff ectiv e

 measures

 r elating

 t o

 cessation

 of

 t he

 nuclear ar ms

 r ace

 at

 an

 ear l y

 dat e

 and

 t o

 nuclear

 disar mament ‟ . 5 Ar ticle

 15

 of

 t he

 TPNW

 s tipulat es

 t hat

 50

 ins tr uments

 of

 r atification,

 accep t ance,

 appr o val

 or

 accession

 ar e

 r eq uir ed

 f or

 t he

 tr eaty

 t o

 enter int o

 f or ce.

 As

 of

 May

 2020, 37

 s t at es

 had

 deposit ed

 suc h

 ins tr uments.

 6 N umbering

 fiv e

 s t at es

 (t he

 P eople‟ s

 R epublic

 of

 China,

 F r ance,

 Russia,

 t he

 UK

 and

 t he

 US),

 commonl y

 r ef er r ed

 t o

 as

 nuclear

 w eapon

 s t at es. S t at es

 outside

 t he

 NPT

 t hat

 possess

 or

 ar e

 believ ed

 t o

 possess

 nuclear

 w eapons

 –

 some times

 diff erentiat ed

 fr om

 t he

 NPT

 nuclear

 w eapon

 s t at es b y

 t he

 t er m

 nuclear -ar med

 s t at es

 –

 ar e

 t he

 DPRK

 (whic h

 announced

 its

 wit hdr a w al

 fr om

 t he

 NPT

 in

 2003),

 India,

 P akis t an

 and

 Isr ael.

 7 185

 non-nuclear

 w eapon

 s t at es.

 8 Of

 N A T O‟ s

 P ar tnership

 f or

 P eace

 (PfP)

 pr og r amme,

 A us tr ia

 has

 sig ned

 and

 r atified

 t he

 TPNW , and

 Ir eland

 has

 sig ned

 but

 no t

 y e t

 r atified. PfP

 countr ies

 ma y

 c hoose

 individual

 partnership

 activities

 on

 whic h

 t o

 cooper at e

 wit h

 N A T O

 outside

 t he

 nuclear

 r ealm.

 F or

 ins t ance,

 Ir eland partner s

 wit h

 N A T O

 as

 par t

 of

 its

 PfP

 member ship

 in

 ar eas

 including

 t he

 pr o t ection

 of

 civilians,

 as

 w ell

 as

 t he

 pr o t ection

 of

 c hildr en

 in

 ar med conflict.

 See

 Department

 of

 F or eig n

 Affair s

 and

 T r ade,

 „Ir eland

 in

 t he

 P ar tnership

 f or

 P eace

 Pr og r amme ‟ , https://www .dfa.ie/par tnership-f or - peace/ir eland-in-the-par tnership-f or -peace-pr og r amme/ (accessed

 4

 Mar . 2020).

 �

  Figur e

 1.

 S t atus

 of

 t he T r eaty

 on

 t he N on-Pr olifer ation

 of

 N uclear

 W eapons

  NATO

 nuclear

 weapon

 states NATO

 non-nuclear

 weapon

 states

 3

 Non-NATO

 nuclear

 weapon

 states

 27

 Non-NATO

 nuclear

 umbrella

 2

 non-nuclear

 weapon

 states Withdrawal

 3

 1

 Never

 signed

 the

 NPT

 4

 Other

 non-nuclear

 weapon

 155

 Including

 tw o

 UN

 non-member

 s t at es/per manent

 obser vers,

 t he

 Hol y

 See

 and

 t he

 S t at e

 of

 P ales tine.

  P erspectives

 of

 member s

 of

 suc h

 alliances

 on

 t he

 one

 hand,

 and

 pr oponents

 of

 t he

 TPNW

 on

 t he

 o t her , ar e

 contr as t ed

 in

 t his

 paper . P er cep tions

 of

 what

 under pins

 s tr at egic

 s t ability

 ar e,

 in

 effect,

 com pe ting wit h

 what

 some

 see

 as

 t he

 humanit ar ian

 imper ativ e

 f or

 t he

 elimination

 of

 nuclear

 ar ms. 9

 In

 an y

 event, s tr ong

 tr ibalism 10

 associat ed

 wit h

 t hese

 vie wpoints

 has

 wr eak ed

 mis tr us t

 and

 misunder s t anding

 in

 nuclear

 disar mament

 f or ums.

 The

 upcoming

 NPT

 R evie w

 Conf er ence

 needs

 t o

 la y

 t ...

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