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Equit y
R es ea r ch Eur ope
Is
tec h
i n
a b u bb l e ?
We
ha ve
been
overw eig ht
tec h
f o r
ma ny
y ea r s ,
a nd
sof twa r e ha s
been
our
l a r g es t
ove r w eig ht
f or
t he
l a s t
decade. We
ex a mine
the
f oll ow i ng va r ia bles
a nd
c onclude tha t
the
ex cess
i n
t ech is hi g h, b ut
in
m os t
insta nces
not
ex tr em e: Inves tment:
T he
t ech investment
s ha r es
of
GD P
a nd
c a pex
t o
sa les a r e onl y
slig htl y
a bove thei r
nor m s .
R evenue
&
ear ning s : F o r eca s t
r e venue
g r ow th
is in
li ne
with
i ts
tr e nd,
per f o r m ance is in
li ne w it h
ea r ning s
r evisions
( un li k e 2000 ) .
Valua ti on:
T ech is only
modes tl y
ex pens ive
i f
we
us e t he
k ey
ma tr i x
of
FCF
y iel d
ver s us
t he m a r k et.
The big g es t
tec h
stock s
of f er
a median
2021
FCF
yie ld
o f
3.6 %
( a dj us ted
f or
S B C ) a nd
3 %
i n
2020
on
consens us .
I n
C r edit
S uisse HO L T ®,
tec h
a cc ounts
f or
36 %
of economic
value
cr ea ti on
c om pa r ed
t o
a sha r e o f
ma r k et
ca p
of
c . 25 %
( w it h
i ts
s ha r e of ea r ning s
much
mor e c omm ens ur a te
w it h
i ts
s ha r e of
ma r k et
ca p
t ha n
wa s
t he
c a s e i n
1998 - 2000 ) .
His tor i ca ll y ,
bubble s
ha ve
r e - r a ted
to
a P/E
of
45 x
t o
72 x ,
a nd
t he
N a s da q
i s cur r entl y
on
37 x .
Pos it ioni ng : S pecu la ti on
is hig h
i n
pa r ts
of
t he
ma r k et,
but
not
e x t r em e.
W e
red u c e
th e
si z e
o f
o u r
o v e r w e i g h t:
i)
M o r e demanding
valua ti on
on
s oftwa r e — the HO L T - implied
discount
r a te
f or
sof twa r e ha s
f a ll en
t o
l ow
l evels
r e la ti ve
to
the
m a r k et,
a nd cl oud
c om pa nies
tr a de
on
7 x
2022
consens us
estima tes
of
t ota l
a ddr es s a ble
m a r k et
( = 33 x ea r ning s ) ;
ii )
M a r k et
conc ent r a ti on
i s
ex tr em e ( tec h+
i s
t he
sa m e sha r e of
ma r k et
ca p
a s
it
w a s in
2000 ,
a nd
t he
t op
f ive
stoc k s
a r e 26 %
of
U S
ma r k et
ca p
c om pa r ed
t o
t he
a ll - ti m e hi g h
o f 30 %
i n
J a pa n
i n
2000 ) ;
w e ha ve
a lso
s ta r ted
to
s ee a l os s
of
br ea dth
( w hic h
beca m e mor e ex tr em e i n
J a pa n
i n
1985 - 90
or
i n
t he
TMT bubbl e) ;
iii )
Hig he r
r eg ula ti on
r isk
( es peci a ll y
i n
t he event
of
a B iden
vic to r y )
a nd
t a x
r isk
( if
t a x es
wer e r a ised
to
4 %
o f
r evenue,
t hen
ea r ning s
f or top
s toc k s
would
f a ll
by
20 % ) ;
a nd
i v)
A
va cc ine
c ould
caus e a shor t - ter m
r ever s a l
in
s om e of the
onli ne
t r ends a nd
would
help
other
sector s
mor e (f ina nci a ls,
l ei s ur e) .
We
s till
r ecommend
bein g
overw eig ht
( a lbei t
s m a ll er )
beca us e we
view
t ech a s
def ens ive
( net ca s h, us ed
t o
def la ti on,
consolida ti on,
s ca le,
g ener a ll y
l ow
l evel
of
em ploy ees ,
m a kes
pr oduct s tha t
f a ci li tate
cost - cut ti n g ) ,
cy cl i c a l
int o
a n
uptur n
( beta
of
2 x
t o
c a pex) ,
g r ow th
(judg in g
by r ela ti ve
ea r ning s
r ev isions )
a nd
a benef ic ia r y
f r om
a wea k
dol la r
( te ch is the
s econd - big g es t
U S over s ea s
ea r ner ) .
A s
a bove,
we
do
not
see
cl ea r
ex cess
a nd
ha ve
c ons istently
believed
t his
bul l m a r k et
would
end
with
c lea r
ex c es s .
B e
mo r e
se l e c ti v e :
We
lower
o ur
weig hti n g
of
so f twa r e f r om
str ong
overw eig ht
t o
overw eig h t ( w e a r e stil l
ver y
positive
on
S A P
a nd
M S F T ) .
We
ha ve
a sma ll
overw eig ht
o f
sem is,
f ocusing on na tur a l
m onopoli es
t ha t
a r e ex ten ding
t heir
l ea d
( T S MC ,
A S ML )
a nd
t hink
S EC
of f er s
c lea r
value
( 6.9 %
FCF
on
2021
c onse nsus ) .
We
li k e g a m ing
s toc k s
( P/E
r ela ti ve
a t
2009
l ow s )
s uch
a s
A ct ivision
B li zz a r d
a nd
F r onti er
Devel opm ents
a nd
a r e ove r w eig ht
tel ecom
equipment , wher e P/E
r ela ti ves a r e c lose
to
a ll - ti m e l ow s
a nd
t he
out look
i s
pa r ti cul a r ly
st r ong
( Er i css on) .
C hinese
pla tfor m
c om pa nies
ha ve
a P/E
r ela ti ve
a t
the
bott om
en d
of
t hei r
r ange despite
s t r ong ea r ning s
r evisions
( T encent ,
A li b a ba) .
Rese ar c h
An aly sts
A n d r ew
G a r thw a i te
44
20
7883
6477
a ndrew .g a rt hw a it e@ c redit - s uis s e. c om
Ro b e r t
G r i ff i ths
44
20
7883
8885
robert .g riffit hs@ c redi t - s uis s e. c om
Ni co l a s
W y l en z e k
44
20
7883
6480
nic ola s . wylenz ek@ c redit - s uis s e. c om
Me n g y u a n
Y u a n
44
20
7888
0368
m eng y ua n. y ua n@ c redit - s uis s e. c om
A sim A l i
44
20
7883
2480
a s im . a li@ c redit - s uis s e. c om
T i mo thy
O " S u ll i v a n
44
20
7888
9803
t imot hy . os ull iva n@ c redit - s uis s e. c om
D IS CLOSU RE
AP P END IX
AT
TH E
B ACK
O F
TH IS
REP O RT
CONTAIN S
IMP O RTANT
D IS CLOSU RE S ,
ANALYST CE RT IFICATIONS, LE G AL
E NTITY
D IS CLOSU RE
AND
TH E
S TA TU S
O F
NON - U S
ANALYSTS.
U S
Discl os ur e :
C r edit
S uisse does a nd
s eek s
to
do
business w it h
companies
covered
in
it s
r e s ea r ch
r epor ts.
A s
a
r es ult ,
inve s tor s
s hould
be
a w a r e
tha t
the
F ir m
m a y
ha ve
a
conf li ct
of
int e r es t
tha t
coul d a ff ect
t he
obj e ct ivit y
of
t his
r epor t .
Inves tor s
should
c ons ider
t his
r epor t
a s
onl y
a sing le
f a ct or
i n
m a k ing
t heir
i nves tme nt
deci s ion.
Glob al
Equity
St ra teg y
T ech:
no
bubbl e ,
but
ti me
to
be
more
se lec ti ve
Inves tment
S tr a teg y
|
S tr a te g y
Nokia & Ericsson 12m fwd P/E rel European mkt
Average (+/- 1SD)
Key
c harts
Figu r e
1 :
Th e
n e t
i n v e stme n t
sh ar e
o f
GD P
i s
a t
ave r ag e
l e v e l
Figu r e
2 :
Tec h
sal e s
ar e
i n
l i n e
w it h
th e i r
tren d ,
u n l i k e
2000
1.8%
US Net tech investment, % of GDP 15%
10%
5% 1.3% 0%
-5%
0.8% -10%
0.3%
-15%
-20%
-25%
-30%
% dev from ex ponential trendline
US Tech+ 12m trailing sales 12m forward forecast -0.2% 1960 1968 1976 1984 1992 2000 2008 2016 1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Sourc e: Refinit iv,
C redit
Suis s e resea rc h
Sourc e: Refinit iv,
C redit
Suis s e resea rc h
Figu r e
3 :
G l o b a l
tec h
FC F
r e l
marke t
Figu r e
4 :
In terne t
sal e s
a s
%
o f
to ta l
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
-1.5% 1994 1998 2002 2005 2009 2013 2016 2020 5
0 2006
2008
2009
2010
2012
2013
2014
2016
2017
2018
2020
Sourc e: Refinit iv,
C redit
Suis s e resea rc h
Sourc e: Refinit iv,
C redit
Suis s e resea rc h
Figu r e
5 :
Ch i n a tec h
d o e s
n o t
l oo k
exp e n si v e
rel at i v e
to
th e Ch i n e s e
marke t
I
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0 Figu r e
6 :
Tel e com e q u i pme n t
comp ani e s
l oo k
c he ap
o n
12 - mo n t h
fw d
P / E
rel at i v e
t o th e
m ar ke t
250%
230%
210%
190%
170%
150%
130%
110% 1.5 90%
1.0 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2020
70% 2001 2003 2006 2009 2011 2014 2017 2020
Sourc e: Refinit iv,
C redit
Suis s e resea rc h
Sourc e: Refinit iv,
C redit
Suis s e resea rc h
3.0%
Global tech - FCF yield rel market (%) 2.5%
Average (+/- 1SD) 2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
-0.5%
-1.0%
UK internet sales, % of total retail China IT Major Names 12m fwd PE rel to MSC
AC World Average (+/- 1s.d.) 10 year average
T able
of
Co nte nts
W h at
to
d o w i th
te c h ?
4
P ar t
1 :
Is
tec h
i n
a b u bb l e ?
5
1.
N o
c lea r - cut
over - investment
.......................................................................................... 5
2.
Dema nd
i s
not
ex tr em e
................................................................................................... 7
3.
Ex cess
i nventor y
– elevated,
but
not
a wor r y
.................................................................. 8
4.
N o
bi g
dec oupli ng f r om
ea r nin g s
.................................................................................... 9
5.
Va lua ti on
– s om e mea s u r es
a r e a c lea r
wor r y
............................................................... 10
6.
S om e ex cess
specula ti on,
but
no t
ex tr em e
.................................................................. 22
T he
na tur e of
bubbl es
........................................................................................................... 25
P ar t
2 :
W h y
w e
trim
o u r
o v e r w e i g h t
i n
te c h
26
Why
not
neut r a l
o r
underwei g ht?
.......................................................................................... 30
P ar t
3 :
In v e stme n t
re comm e n d at i o n s
33
AP P END IX
47
What
to
do with
tech? We
ha ve
been
overw eig ht
tec h
f or
ma ny
y ea r s ,
a nd
sof twa r e ha s
been
our
l a r g es t
ove r w eig ht f or
t he
la s t
deca de .
In
thi s
piec e,
we
a ddr es s
t hr ee i ss ues :
1.
B u bb l e
o r
n o t ?
How much
ex cess
i s
in
tech?
W e will
out li ne
f iv e w a y s
t o
c ons ide r
t his ques ti on:
over - investm ent,
ex ces s
dem a nd,
a bui ld - up
of
ex cess
i nventor y ,
valua ti on
a nd ex cess
opt imism .
2.
Red u c e
w e i g h ti n g
b u t
stay
o v e r w e i g h t:
We
discuss
our
r ea s ons t o
r educe
our overw eig ht
in
te ch but
r e f r a in
f r om
t a k ing
it
to
benchma r k .
3.
W he r e
to
i n v e st?
We
discuss
o ur
f a vor it e pa r ts
of
g loba l
tec h.
Part
1 :
Is
te ch
in
a bub bl e?
We
ha ve
f ive
ma in
w a y s
of
a ss es s ing
t his
ques ti on
( e x cess
i n
i nve s tment
a nd
i nventor y ,
r evenue r ela ti ve
to
tr end ,
valua ti on,...
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