下面是小编为大家整理的贵金属市场季报：有涨必有跌,供大家参考。
Precious
Metals
Quarterly
What
goes
up,
must
come
down
Global Commodities Research 27
July
2020
After
maintaining
a
bullish
view
on
gold
prices
for
over
two
and
a
half years, we believe bullion will likely see one last hurrah before prices turn lower into year-end. Light positioning and surging momentum in the near term can continue to carry gold higher over the next month or so to a level around $2,000/oz but the move will not be supported by fundamentals. Therefore, we think the current price is close to a peak and turn neutral on gold. Based
on
our
valuation
framework,
for
gold
to
breach
$2,000/oz
on
a sustained basis, the 10-year US real yield needs to reset another 75bp lower to
-165bp,
a
scenario
that
looks
unlikely
given
our
macroeconomic forecasts. Instead, the 10-year US real yield is likely to drift higher from its current level of -93bp to -75bp by mid-21. With real yields rising, we see gold coming off a near-term peak to average $1,880/oz in 4Q20. The
gold-to-silver
ratio
will
likely
see
one
more
volatile
leg
lower
in
3Q before
correcting
higher
over
4Q.
Industrial silver demand could become more influential to pricing over 2021 as precious fundamentals quiet. PGM
prices
are
breaking
higher
on
a
firming
demand
landscape
and lingering questions on supply. We still hold an upwards bias on palladium into
year-end
on
a
continued
auto
recovery.
Platinum
will
likely
edge higher too but still looks capped by its long-term fundamentals. JPM precious metals price forecasts Front
month
prices
in
US$
per
troy
ounce
Price
and
forecasts
are
quarterly
and
annual
averages
Source:
J.P.
Morgan
Commodities
Research
Global
Commodities
Research Natasha
Kaneva
(1-212)
834-3175
natasha.kaneva@jpmorgan.com JPMorgan
Chase
Bank
NA
Gregory
C.
Shearer
(44-20)
7134-8161
gregory.c.shearer@jpmorgan.com
J.P.
Morgan
Securities
plc
Thomas
Anthonj
(44-20)
7742-7850
thomas.e.anthonj@jpmorgan.com
J.P.
Morgan
Securities
plc
Ladislav
Jankovic
(1-212)
834-9618
ladislav.jankovic@jpmchase.com
J.P.
Morgan
Securities
LLC
Lorenzo
Ravagli,
PhD
(44-20)
7742-7947
lorenzo.ravagli@jpmorgan.com
J.P.
Morgan
Securities
plc
See page 27 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. www.jpmorganmarkets.com 1Q2020 2Q2020 3Q2020 4Q2020 2020 1Q2021 2Q2021 3Q2021 4Q2021 2021 2022 2023
New 1,584 1,718 1,933 1,880 1,779 1,815 1,790 1,720 1,650 1,744 1,304 1,369 Gold Old (Apr 2020) 1,584 1,765 1,780 1,690 1,705 1,680 1,660 1,640 1,630 1,653 1,304 1,369
Change 0% -3% 9% 11% 4% 8% 8% 5% 1% 6% 0% 0%
New 16.84 16.59 23.29 21.44 19.54 20.17 20.57 20.00 19.41 20.04 15.80 16.90 Silver Old (Apr 2020) 16.84 16.50 17.45 16.90 16.92 16.97 16.77 16.57 16.46 16.69 15.80 16.90
Change 0% 1% 33% 27% 15% 19% 23% 21% 18% 20% 0% 0%
New 897 811 950 930 897 950 880 870 870 893 840 870 Platinum Old (Apr 2020) 897 820 840 880 859 880 875 870 870 874 840 870
Change 0% -1% 13% 6% 4% 8% 1% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0%
New 2,199 1,958 2,300 2,450 2,227 2,450 2,300 2,000 1,900 2,163 1,600 1,200 Palladium Old (Apr 2020) 2,199 2,300 2,400 2,450 2,337 2,400 2,300 2,000 1,900 2,150 1,600 1,200
Change 0% -15% -4% 0% -5% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0%
9%
Gold & Silver: Exiting the 30-month bullish call
While gold could well see one last hurrah in the coming months, the current price is close to a peak. We, thus, turn neutral after a 2½-year bullish bias that was based on falling US real interest rates. Current momentum could push gold higher but the move will not be supported by fundamentals. Based on our valuation framework, for gold to breach $2,000/oz on a sustained basis, the 10-year US real yield needs to reset another 75bp lower
to -165bp. While this is not improbable, it looks unlikely given our current US macroeconomic forecast and policies. Instead, the 10-year US real yield is likely to driftOverall, we felt that being long gold over 2019 and into 2020 offered unique hedging opportunities in a business cycle that became the longest on record last March (Despite the rally, gold still offers a cheap late-cycle hedge, 7 June 2019). We had forecasted gold to peak at $1850/oz by mid-2020 (average $1,780/oz in 2Q20). We also concluded that despite a ~20% rally in gold prices in 2019, we were in the midst of gold"s typical end-cycle rise rather than at the start of new long-term rally similar to that in the 2000s.
Exhibit 1: Median gold returns by quintile of expansion Percent
change.
Monthly
data
since
Jan
1975
30% 24%
20% higher from its current level of -90bp to -75bp by mid-21. With real yields rising, after peaking soon, gold should average $1,880/oz in 4Q20. A 2½ year bullish bias comes to an end 10%
0%
-10% 7% 8% 4%
-8% After maintaining a bullish view on gold prices for over two and a half years 1 , we believe bullion will likely see one last hurrah before prices turn lower into year- end. Our view was based on the history of precious metals performing the best in the late cycle, as the closing economic output gap near the end of an expansion boosts inflation expectations, followed by early periods of recession when investment rotates from production inputs (cyclical assets) to stores of value (gold, bonds). The weakest performance is when the economy exits the recession.
Over the last five US expansions, the median increase in gold prices in the last quintile of the expansion is 24%, when the price rise is the strongest.
Given its safe haven appeal, gold has historically received a further 8% boost to prices as the cycle comes to an end (Exhibits 1 & 2).
1
(Late cycle dynamics: a rising tide lifts all boats, 2 February 2018; 2019 Outlook: As the cycle progresses, the opportunity for base metals outperformance narrows. Precious metals to shine in 2H19, 19 November 2018; While not the start of a new Golden Era, advancing end-of-cycle dynamics keeps us bullish gold. We now target $1,780/oz, 28 August 2019) 0-20% 20-40% 40-60% 60-80% 80-100%
Recession Source:
S&P,
NBER,
J.P.
Morgan.
0-100%
includes
the
current
2009-2020
cycle,
but
this cycle
is
not
yet
included
in
the
recession
median
calculation.
Exhibit 2: Gold prices during expansions and recessions Measures
change
in
the
price
of
gold
throughout
the
cycle
with
the
beginning of
expansions
normalized
to
zero.
Monthly
data
since
Jan
1975
160%
120%
80%
40%
0%
-40% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Source:
World
Bank,
NBER,
J.P.
Morgan.
Framework
adopted
from
J.P.
Morgan
Long- Term
Investment
Strategy
team.
Real yields pushed gold to $1,900/oz, what will move it higher? Since a bottom at $1,176/oz on August 17, 2018, the prompt COMEX gold price is up over 60% to above $1,950/oz. Real 10-year US yields moved from a seven-
Average (1975-2001) Expansion Recession Current Cycle
year high of 116bp on November 8, 2018 to an eight- year low of -93bp at the moment of writing. In line with the estimated historical relationship of a 25bp decline in real yield driving up gold price by $80/oz, this 206bp decline in the real yield alone was sufficient to push
price to $1,835/oz, all things equal. Half of this surge took place in 2020, on the back of the Fed’s lightning- bolt reaction in lowering rates back to the effective lower bound (ELB) and the introduction of an uncapped purchase program in Treasuries and MBS that was done within the span of weeks, compared to months during 2007-2008.
Similar to gold’s epic bull-run in 2008-2011, the price rise was driven by gold ETFs (Exhibit 3). Gold ETFs recorded their seventh consecutive month of positive flows in June, taking global holdings to new all-time highs of 3,621 tons. This brings 1H20 net inflows to 734 tons, significantly above the highest level of annual inflow of 646 tons in 2009 and enough to absorb about 45% of global gold production in 1H20, according to a reconsideration of the future of the dollar as a global reserve currency (Exhibit 5). The most significant purchases in the first five months of the year were from banks who have been consistent recent buyers: Russia, Turkey, Poland, China, India and Kazakhstan. Russia added 21 mn oz to its total reserves, accounting for 28% of the total global purchases. But Russia"s 14-year-long buying spree might be coming to an end. The Central Bank of Russia, world"s largest gold buyer since the end of 2005, announced in March that it would suspend its gold buying program starting from April 1. While no reasons for the move were announced, the country has been drawing down FX reserves since March in the face of lower oil prices and the economic impact of COVID- 19. Russia accounted for 30% of global gold net purchases in 2019 and going forward, we would expect the absence of regular Russian buying to have a significant impact on the level of global net purchases.
Exhibit 4: Gold consumer demand Metric
tonnes
World Gold Council.
Exhibit 3: Net non-commercial COMEX gold positioning and gold ETF holdings Million
t
oz.
160 COMEX net non-commercial ETF holdings 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
Source:
World
Gold
Council
EM DM India + China - (20)
Source:
CME,
Bloomberg
However, absent from this rally were the hyper-price- sensitive EM investors, especially from China and India (Exhibit 4). While it is true that the COVID-19 pandemic slashed jewelry demand—the largest stable component of gold demand—to a record low across the globe, an impact that was further exacerbated by the effect of high and steeply rising gold prices, EM gold consumer demand has been declining since 4Q18. This helps to corroborate our view that we are not at the start of a new Golden era but rather that gold is riding (and close t...
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