下面是小编为大家整理的马来西亚市场策略：该面对现实了,供大家参考。
Equit y
R es ea r ch A s ia
Pa ci f ic
|
M a lay s ia
S i g n i fi c ant
d e teri o r at i o n
i n
mac r o
o u tl oo k .
We
ex pect
Malay s ia ’s
economy
to potent ia ll y
s hr ink
by
> 5 %
in
2020
a nd
r ecove r
6 %
nex t
y ea r ,
s ubjec t
to
r eview
s hould ther e
be
f u r ther
e x tensions
to
th e
loc k dow n.
U nem ploy ment
r a te
coul d
r ise
to
a n
a ll - ti m e hig h
of
> 4% ,
a nd
pos es
s ig nif ic a nt
r isk
to
pr iva te
consum pti on ,
w hic h
is
a
m a jor
GDP dr iver .
M o r e
d o wn si d e
r i sk
to
str ee t’s
e ar n i n g s .
C S ’
cor po r a te
ea r ning s
f o r eca s ts
f o r
the
m a r k et
ha ve
been
r educed
by
20 %
f or
2020 F
a nd
14 %
f or
2021 F
over
the
pa s t
month. C S
is now
f o r eca s ti ng
a net
p r of it
cont r a ct ion
by
12.5 %
in
2020
f oll ow ed
by
a r ecover y
i n 2021
by
23.5 % .
Despite
cut s
in
s tr eet’ s
net
pr of it
es ti m a tes
f or
2020
a nd
2021
by 12.5 %
a nd
9 . 8 % ,
r es pect ive ly ,
w e stil l
s ee r oom
f o r
downw a r d
r evisions .
S tr eet’ s
net
p r of it f or eca s t
f o r
2020 F
i s
8.1 %
a bove
C S ’
f or eca s t
but
a r e bot h
in
li n e f or
2021 F .
Val u at i o n s
n o t
p r i c i n g
i n
r e c e ssi o n .
T he
m a r k et
(ba s ed
on
C S ’
cover a g e )
is tr a ding
on
a
f or w a r d
P/E
m ultipl e
of
15 . 8 x ,
s li g htl y
hig he r
than
the
long - ter m
a ver a g e
of
15 x . How ever ,
the
m a r k et
ha s
histor i ca ll y
t r a ded
m or e
than
1
S D
be low
histor ic
a ver a g e
P /E dur ing
p r evious
economic
r ecess ions
( 8.7 x
dur in g
A FC
a nd
11.4 x
dur ing
G FC ) .
S ti c k
to
sto c ks
w i th
r e si l i e n t
e ar n i n g s .
We
r es et
our
2020
KLC I
ta r g et
a t
1 , 361
a nd
our
2021
KLC I
ta r g et
ha s
been
s et
a t
1 ,5 54 .
While
w e
e x pect
the
KLC I
to
be
r ela ti vel y uncha ng ed
by
end - 2020 ,
histor ic a l
cor r ela ti on
between
GDP
a nd
KLC I
s ug g es ts
ther e coul d
be
r isk
of
a
m a ter ia l
m a r k et
de - r a ti ng
by
a s
m uch
a s
20 %
in
2 Q - 3Q
2020
a s economic
condi ti ons
deter ior a te .
In
our
view ,
s toc k s /sect or s
tha t
coul d
f a r e
compa r a ti vely bett er :
r ubbe r
( T O PG,
Ka r ex ) ,
hea lt hca r e
( IH H) ,
power
( TN B ,
ML K),
tel cos
( Ma x is, T imeDotC om ) ,
hig h - y iel d
consu mer
s toc k s
( B A T ,
A s tr o) ,
cont r a ct or s
( Ec onpil e,
Ga m uda , IJ M) ,
a nd
MY EG .
Figu r e
1 :
K LC I
co rr e c te d
39 - 52 %
d u r i n g
th e
p as t
tw o e co n o mi c rec e ss i o n s
Rese ar c h
Anal ysts
Da nn y
G o h
60
3
2723
2083
da nny .g oh@ c redit - s uis s e. c om
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
-
199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
-6.0%
-8.0%
-10.0%
Sourc e: Depa rt m ent
of
S t a t is t ic s
(D OS M ),
T he
B L OOMB ERG
P ROF ESSI ONA L ™
s ervic e
D IS CLOSU RE
AP P E ND IX
AT
TH E
B ACK
O F
TH IS
REP O RT
CONTA IN S
IMP O RT ANT
D IS CLOSU RE S ,
ANALYST CE RT IFICATIONS, LE G AL
E NTITY
D IS CLOSU RE
AND
TH E
S TA TU S
O F
NON - U S
ANALYSTS.
U S
Discl os ur e :
C r edit
S uiss e does a nd
s eek s
to
do
business w it h
compa nies
cover ed
in
it s
r e s ea r ch
r epor t s .
A s
a
r es ult ,
inve s tor s
s hould
be
a w a r e
tha t
the
F ir m
m a y
ha ve
a
conf li ct
of
int e r es t
tha t
coul d
KLCI
GDP
(constant
prices)
1,445
1,238
-39%
877
-1.5%
594
-52%
-7.4%
Mala ys ia
M ar ket
St ra tegy T ime
for
a real it y
c he c k
Inves tment
S tr a teg y
|
S tr a te g y
Phase
1
Phase
2
of
MCO of
MCO
Phase
3 of
MCO
25-Jan
1-Feb
8-Feb
15-Feb
22-Feb
29-Feb
7-Mar
14-Mar
21-Mar
28-Mar
4-Apr
11-Apr
18-Apr
25-Apr
New
Cases
New
Recoveries
Focu s
ch arts
Figu r e
2 :
Im p r o v i n g
stat s
o n
COVID - 19
Figu r e
3 :
U n e mp l o ym e n t
ra t e
e x p e c te d
t o ri s e
t o al l - ti m e
h i g h
Malaysia
Covid-19
New
Cases
&
New
Recoveries
250
200
150
100
50
0
Sourc e: M ini s t ry
of
H ea l t h
(M oH )
Sourc e: DOSM ,
C redit
Suis s e es t im a t e s
Figu r e
4 :
D o wn si d e
ri s k
t o stree t’ s
e ar n i n g s
an d
G D P
fo r e c as t
Figu r e
5 :
P / E
n o t
refl e c t i n g
re c e ssi o n
s c e n ar i o
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
6.1%
5.5%
6.0%
4.5%
5.1% 4.9%
3.6% 3.5%
4.1%
3.0%
5.3%
7.4%
6.7%
5.5%
6.4% 6.2%
7.0%
9.9%
1.5%
0.9% 0.5%
6.4% 6.1%
7.1%
1.8%
5.3%
5.1%
4.9%
4.7%
4.5%
4.3%
4.1%
3.9%
20.0
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
P/E
vs
GDP
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-6.0%
C S
2020
g r o w t h
e s t
=
- 12 . 5 %
-4.8%
3.7%
3.5%
8.0
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020F
-8.0%
-10.0%
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
Sourc e: I B ES
es t im a t es ,
C redit
Suis s e es t im a t es
Sourc e: T he
B L OOMB ERG
P ROF ESSI ONA L ™
s ervic e ,
C redit
Suis s e es t im a t es
Figu r e
6 :
To p
p i c k s
su mm ar y
v alua ti o n
tab l e
R a ti n g
3 M
A DV
( US D
m n)
Pr i c e
( RM)
Y T D
p e r f
T a r g e t
Pr i c e
( RM)
P/ E
(2020 E)
P/ B
(2020 E)
Di v
Y l d
(2020 E)
T OP G
O
19.5
7.17
47%
7.20
34.2
6.7
1.5 %
T NB
O
16.1
12.16
- 3%
14.30
13.8
1.0
4.3 %
M YEG
O
15.5
1.19
7%
1.50
16.1
4.1
1.9 %
IHH
O
6.8
5.11
- 5%
6.05
93.2
2.0
0.2 %
B AT
O
5.9
11.68
- 23%
14.60
10.2
8.0
9.6 %
Ga m uda
O
5.0
3.20
- 18%
3.63
11.9
0.8
3.8 %
M a x is O
3.0
5.31
1%
6.45
26.8
5.9
3.8 %
I J M
O
1.9
1.65
- 24%
2.25
14.2
0.5
2.8 %
T DC
O
1.9
9.78
8%
11.30
15.0
1.9
2.7 %
As t ro
O
1.2
0.89
- 36%
1.20
8.0
4.7
9.2 %
Ec onpil e O
0.9
0.53
- 30%
0.70
19.1
1.6
1.3 %
M a la k off
O
0.4
0.87
1%
1.10
16.8
0.8
6.0 %
K a rex
O
0.4
0.47
- 0.23
0.60
30.5
0.9
1.6 %
Sourc e: C redit
Suis s e es t im a t es
P/E
Avg
+1
std
dev
-1
std
dev
GDP
(constant
prices)
2020
strt
est
growt
GDP
forecast
[RHS]
Avg:
14.9x
+1
std
dev:
16.9x
15.8
-1
std
dev:
12.8x
-1.5%
11.4
-7.4%
-5.0%
8.7
T ime
f or
a rea lit y
c heck
Sign ifica nt
dete rio ra tion
i n
m a cr o
out look
We
ex pect
M a lay s ia ’s
economy
t o
potent ia ll y
s h r ink
by
> 5 %
in
2020
a nd
r e cover
6 %
nex t
y ea r . T he
GDP
g r ow th
f o r eca s ts
a r e
s ubjec t
to
r eview
s hould
ther e
b e
f ur the r
ex tensions
to
MC O ( Movement
C ontrol
O r de r ) .
Whi l e
the
cent r a l
ba nk
ha s
iss ued
a n
of f ic ia l
f or e ca s t
of
- 2 %
to
+ 0.5 % ,
w e see
dow ns ide
r isk
t o
the
es ti m a tes
a s :
( 1 )
t he
f or eca s t
ha s
only
f a ct or ed
i n
4
week s of
MC O
w hil e
the
g over nment
ha s
a lr ea dy
s inc e
ex tended
it
to
8
w eek s ;
( 2 )
unem ploy ment coul d
r ise
to
a n
a ll - ti m e
hi g h
o f
m or e
than
4 % ;
( 3 )
p r iva te
co ns um pti on
coul d
f a ll
s hor t
o f B N M’ s
4.2 %
g r ow th
f o r eca s t ;
( 4 )
dis r upti ons
ca us ed
by
M C O
coul d
w eig h
on
pr iva te inv es tments .
M ore
down side
r isk for
stree t’s
ear ni ng s
In
li g ht
o f
the
m a ter ia l
dete r ior a ti on
in
the
e conomic
outl ook
due
t o
the
pr o longed
r es tr ic ti ons on business
a ct ivit y
a s
w ell
a s
pe ople ’s
movement ,
ca us ed
by
the
C O VID - 19
outbr ea k ,
C S ’ cor por a te
ea r nin g s
f o r eca s ts
f o r
the
m a r k et
ha ve
been
r edu ced
by
20 %
f or
2020 F
a nd
14 % f or
2021 F
over
the
pa s t
month.
F oll ow ing
the
cut s
in
net
ea r ning s
pr ojec ti ons ,
C S
is
now f or eca s ti ng
a net
pr of it
cont r a ct io n
by
12.5 %
in
2020
f oll ow ed
by
a r ecover y
in
2021
by
23.5 % . Despi te
cut s
in
s tr eet ’s
net
pr of it
es ti m a tes
f or
2020
a nd
2021
by
12.5 %
a nd
9.8 % , r es pect ively ,
w e s ti ll
s ee r oom
f o r
downw a r d
r evisions .
S t r eet’ s
n et
pr of it
f o r eca s t
f or
2020 F
is 8.1 %
a bove
C S ’
f o r eca s t
but
a r e bot h
i n
l ine
f or
2021 F .
Va luations
no t
pric ing
in
rec essio n
Malay s ia
is the
s econd - bes t - per f or m ing
m a r k et
in
A s ia
Y T D
a nd
is only
lower
by
13 %
Y T D.
W e a tt r ibut e the
s tr eng th
o f
the
m a r k et
to
the
f a vour a ble
r es pons e of
investor s
to
the
g over nm ent’ s m ea s ur es
to
cont a in
the
s pr ea d
of
C O VID - 19
a nd
f isca l
s ti m ulus
m ea s ur es
to
cushion
the economy
f r om
ef f ect s
of
the
vir us .
T he
m a r k et
(ba s ed
on
C S ’
cover a g e)
is
tr a ding
on
f or w a r d P/E
m ultipl e
of
15.8 x ,
s li g htl y
h i g her
than
the
long
te r m
a ver a g e
of
15 x .
How ever ,
it
is
w orth hig hli g ht ing
tha t
the
m a r k et
ha s
histor ic a ll y
tr a ded
mo r e than
1
S D
below
histo r ic
a ver a g e
P/E dur ing
p r ev...
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