下面是小编为大家整理的2020年东盟旅游业可能会令人失望,供大家参考。
Change (YoY)
Global Research
15 January 2020
ASEAN Equity Strategy ASEAN tourism likely to disappoint in 2020
We identify a high quality lead indicator for tourism arrivals Our new analysis of airline schedules leads us to believe tourism into ASEAN territories is likely to disappoint through most of 2020. This is in contrast to the more positive conclusion we drew from the most recent UBS Evidence Lab China outbound travel survey. We believe airline schedules provide a high quality quantitative lead indicator for tourism volumes 6-9 months ahead, and these suggest that tourism volumes to Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam will disappoint from Q2 2020. We see risks to equity valuations, EPS growth estimates and GDP forecasts. Hotel and gaming names could be directly negatively affected 2020 tourism arrivals for Thailand and Cambodia may disappoint consensus. Given already depressed (mid-20s) PE multiples we estimate that Thai tourism names are pricing in just ~3% volume growth, but that these could nevertheless still be disappointed given we see airline capacity expanding <1% from March 2020. Pure play names, Asset World, Erawan and Centel could be most affected. Whilst we see risks to NagaCorp in Cambodia, as 15% tourism growth YTD Oct 2019 may slow to just 3% to Sept" 2020, the importance of the mass market to Naga has decreased. Philippines and Vietnam cyclicals could see indirect exposure The largest discrepancy vs trend and consensus expectation is in the Philippines and Vietnam. Both territories have seen double digit growth in tourist volumes in recent years, but only 0-2% increase in airline scheduled capacity from April 2020. Whilst there are few stocks like Bloomberry resorts directly exposed to any slowdown, GDP growth could see negative revisions of ~30bps in both countries if the schedules prove indicative of eventual demand, with secondary impacts on local cyclical securities. Some alternative ideas We are less positive on tourism into ASEAN as a result of this work. Instead we would recommend cyclical names that are reaching a theoretical fundamental earnings floor such as Petronas Chemicals in Energy/ materials, or names that we see as over-sold on well flagged idiosyncratic events such as Bangkok Dusit, Ayala Corp or Masan. Ian Douglas-Pennant, CFA Strategist ian.douglas-pennant@ubs.com
+65-6495 5022 Nicole Goh
Analyst nicole.goh@ubs.com
+603-2781 1133 Natchutha Na Pattaloong
Analyst natchutha.na-pattaloong@ubs.com
+662-613 5734 Jody Santiago
Analyst jody.santiago@ubs.com
+632-784 8812 Rachael Tan
Analyst rachael.tan@ubs.com
+65-6495 2708 Edward Teather
Economist edward.teather@ubs.com
+65-6495 5965 Ian Wong Analyst ian.wong@ubs.com
+852-2971 7316
Figure 1: Philippines tourist arrivals may disappoint Figure 2: Thailand unlikely to see material improvement 40%
Foreign tourist arrivals
80%
Foreign tourist arrivals 30%
International flight arrivals (seats)
60%
International flight arrivals (seats)
20%
40%
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20%
0% 0%
-10%
-20%
-20%
-40%
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2020 2015 2015 2016 2017 2017 2018 2019 2019 2020 Source: Diio, UBS Source: Diio, UBS
www.ubs.com/investmentresearch
This report has been prepared by UBS AG, Singapore Branch.
ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON PAGE 23. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
Asia Equity Strategy Change (YoY)
Contents Tourism names across ASEAN could disappoint ....................................... 3 Key stock and economic conclusions ......................................................... 6 Thailand: schedules read negatively .......................................................... 8 Cambodia: challenging outlook ................................................................ 11 Philippines: material slowdown expected ................................................. 13 Malaysia: In line with expectations ........................................................... 16 Vietnam: little expansion planned after April ............................................ 18 Indonesia: in line with expectations .......................................................... 20 Singapore: no strong 2020 rebound ......................................................... 21
Ian Douglas-Pennant, CFA Strategist ian.douglas-pennant@ubs.com
+65-6495 5022 Nicole Goh
Analyst nicole.goh@ubs.com
+603-2781 1133 Natchutha Na Pattaloong
Analyst natchutha.na-pattaloong@ubs.com
+662-613 5734 Jody Santiago
Analyst jody.santiago@ubs.com
+632-784 8812 Rachael Tan
Analyst rachael.tan@ubs.com
+65-6495 2708 Edward Teather
Economist edward.teather@ubs.com
+65-6495 5965 Ian Wong Analyst ian.wong@ubs.com
+852-2971 7316
Tourism names across ASEAN could disappoint Our analysis of a "hard" lead indicator, airline flight schedules, leads us to a cautious conclusion on tourism stocks across the region as well as potential GDP revisions. We draw two broad conclusions from the analysis
Cyclical pickup: Despite the improvements seen recently in Chinese and global activity indicators and the conclusions we drew from a recent UBS Evidence Lab China outbound survey, we see no evidence of a near term cyclical improvement in the number of tourists visiting ASEAN territories. After high single digit or even double digit annual growth in tourism volumes into both Philippines and Vietnam in recent years, airlines are adding just 0-2% in total capacity from Q2 2020. Airlines are also slowing capacity additions into Thailand and Cambodia, though other ASEAN territories seem more stable.
New analysis of airline schedules leads us to a cautious view on ASEAN tourism Figure 3: Flights from China are not scheduled to pick-up materially Figure 4: A similar story for Thailand
Source: Diio, UBS Source: CEIC Data
Tourists prefer emerging ASEAN: However analysis of past capacity expansions leads us to continue to believe there is a structural trend towards Chinese and regional tourists taking more trips to emerging ASEAN. In recent years airlines from China have been increasing capacity to emerging short-haul countries significantly faster than to either long-haul or developed short-haul destinations. We see this as a structural positive for ASEAN.
Our structurally positive view remains intact however
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Figure 5: Chinese outbound flights by destination Source: Diio, UBS
Where could our analysis be wrong? We are confident that scheduled airline capacity is a high quality 6-9 month lead indicator for tourist volumes. Quantitatively we have observed that scheduled capacity correlates tightly with tourist arrivals, as one would expect: airlines devote significant effort to efficiently allocating their equipment to cater to fluctuating demand. However the two major risks to the analysis that we have identified are:
Capacity utilization: Variation in aircraft capacity utilization (load factor) could mask the variation in capacity over time in some cases. However risk works to the upside and downside; if scheduled capacity is below expectations it is more likely than not that tourist traffic will also be below expectations.
We are confident in our analysis, but see two putative sources of error. Figure 6: Load factors show seasonal variability Figure 7: Standard deviations of load factors
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Source: CEIC, Diio, UBS Source: Diio, UBS
Schedules change: and we don’t have perfect historic data to tell us how schedules have changed in the past.
However we have confidence in our conclusions: the data that we do have suggests that "overbooking" 1 maybe around 1.5% 6 months in advance and
1 Airline scheduling an aircraft that they end up cancelling or downgrading to a smaller aircraft. load factor (Bangkok, BKK) Standard Deviation of load factor (Bangkok, BKK, 2010-2019)
that "underbooking" 2 is very rare; seat schedules have been likely to over-state demand than under-state it. We suspect that airlines may overbook or fail to cancel flights in a timely fashion because landing slots are valuable especially at large airports.
However schedules for more than 6-9 months in the future are highly unreliable. Figure 7: Singapore schedule changes suggest schedules are accurate on a 6-8 month horizon Source: Diio, UBS Source: Diio, UBS
2 Airline not scheduling an aircraft that they end up flying. This would be theoretically very difficult to do given limited landing slots, and we rarely saw it in the data that we have.
Key stock and economic conclusions Figure 8: Stock implications
RIC
Name
Summary
Tourist arrivals YoY ConsE UBSe
Comment
Infrastructure
AOT.BK Airports of Thailand - 3%
1%
Our bear case scentres of limited scope for further volume expansion given capacity constraints. MAHB.KL Malaysia Airports - 4.8%
4.1%
Schedules consistent with our 4.8% traffic increase expectations SATS.SI
SATS
- 2%
1%
Schedule expansions broadly consistent with consensus expectations
Hotels & Property AWC.BK Asset World
3%
1%
PE multiple already pricing in a cautious outlook CENTEL.BK Central Plaza Hotel
3%
1%
PE multiple already pricing in a cautious outlook CPN.BK Central Pattana
3%
1%
PE multiple already pricing in a cautious outlook ERW.BK Erawan
3%
1%
PE multiple already pricing in a cautious outlook MINT.BK Minor International
3%
1%
PE multiple already pricing in a cautious outlook VIC.HM VinGroup - 16%
6%
VinPearl is 7% of SOTP and not a focus for consensus.
Healthcare BDMS.BK
Bangkok Dusit MS - 3%
1%
Likely more insulted to ch...
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