美国能源业:与East,Daley谈话纪要

发布时间:2022-06-24 20:10:04

下面是小编为大家整理的美国能源业:与East,Daley谈话纪要,供大家参考。

美国能源业:与East,Daley谈话纪要

 

 G l o b al R e sear c h

 19

 May

 2020

 US

 E n e r gy

 Trans cr i pt

 f r om

 F i r e s i d e

 C h at

 wi th

 E as t

 Dal e y

  Hi g h li g h ts fro m

 F ire s i d e

 C ha t

 wi th E as t

 D e l ay

 Te am

 W e

  c on ti nu ed

  our

 2020

 F i res i d e

  c h at

  s eri es

  w i th

  th e

  Eas t

  Dal ey

  team,

  to

  rev iew

  th e s tate

 o f

 th e

 po s t

 NO - PEC

 w o rl d an d n ear

 term

 ou tl ook fo r o il

 & g as

 produ c ti on an d t h e mi d s tream

 s ec t or. Du ri ng t h e

 c al l , Ea s t

 Dal ey

 s h ared

 th ei r v i e w s

 on th e

 market

 b a l an c e, rec en t

  p ri ce

  v o latility ,

 s hu t

  i n s ,

 a nd

 rel ati ve

  w i nn ers

  i n

 th e

  c u rren t

  en v i ron men t . Tran s c ri p t

 o f

 th e

 c al l

 s tarts

 on p ag e

 3. O u t l oo k o n

 S t o r a g e

 & I mpa ct

 f r o m

 S hu t - ins E a s t

 D a l ey

 di s cus s e d i t s

 v i e w s

 on s t or a ge

 a nd how i t s

 out l ook ha s

 c hange d due

 t o a ll th e

  rec en t

  s hu t - i n s

  t h at

  w e

  h ave

  s een .

 Th i s

  c omp ares

  to

  M i d-Ap ril

  w h ere

  th ere

  w as s o me

 c on c ern

 th at

 s to rag e

 c ap ac ity

 c ou l d fi ll , w h i c h w as

 po ss i b l y

 on e

 o f

 th e

 reas on s

 fo r th e

 s tro ng mo v es

 i n p ri c i ng. Eas t

 Dal ey

 d i s c u ss ed

 th e

 i mp ac t

 o f

 rec en t

 s hu t

 i n s

 on th e M i d s tream

 s p ace

 an d th ey

 s ee

 t h e

 l arg es t

 produ c ti on d ec li n e s

 i n th e

 Po w d er

 R i v er

 Bas i n ( down

 47% )

  a nd

 Ba kk e n

 ( do w n

 33% )

  f oll o w e d

 by

  t he

  D J

  ( down

 10% )

  a nd

 P e rm i a n ( down 8% ) . C ap e x R e du ct i o ns

 & P r o j e ct s

 C o m i n g

 O n li n e

 Des p ite

  s i gn i f i c an t

  c ap ex

 c u ts

 ac ro ss

 th e

  energ y

  s ec to r, Eas t

 Dal ey

  s ai d s om e

  pro j ec t s are

  es s en ti al

  i f

  as s o c iated

  g a s

  produ c ti on

 d ec li n es

  an d

 th ere

  i s

  a

  n eed

  to

  dr ill

  i n

 g a s b as i n s .

 They

  h i gh li gh te d

 th e

  No rth eas t

  i n

 p arti c u l ar.

  They

  b el i eve

  th at

  i f

  o il

  pr i c es c on ti nu e

 to

 s tay

 at

 d ep res s ed

 le ve ls

 in

 a sso c ia t e d g a s

 b asin s,

 mor e

 g a s

 is

 go in g t o b e n eed ed

 fr om t h e

 No rth ea s t.

 I f

 5-10 Bc f /d of

 i nc r e m e nt a l

 na t ur a l

 ga s

 s upp l y

 i s

 ne e de d fro m

 th e

  NE,

  Eas t

  Dal ey

  no t ed

  th at

  ex p an s i on s

  o f

  p i p e li n es

  li ke

  M oun tai n

 Val l ey , Atl an ti c

 Co as t

 an d o th er

 s mal l

 ex pa ns i on s

 w oul d be

 r e qui r e d t o m ov e

 t he

 ga s

 out of th e

  b as i n.

 Add i ti on al l y ,

 Eas t

  Dal ey

  rev i s ed

  th e i r

 c ap ex

  ex p ec t ati on s

  h i gh er

  f or

 ‘ 22- ‘ 24 fo r n ames

 w i th

 g as

 ex po s u re

 li k e

 M PL X , W M B

 an d K M I

 ( fo r ‘ 23- ‘ 24 ) , w h il e

 th ey

 rev i s e d l o w er

 c ap ex

 es t i mates

 fo r mi d s tr eam

 n ames

 w i th

 G &P

 ex po s u re

 to

 o il

 b as i n s , li ke

 DCP, CEQ P,

 ET,

 NS , OK E,

 PAA,

 TR G P

 an d W ES.

 M i ds t r eam R a tes

 R el i ef Eas t

 Dal ey

 al s o d i s c u ss ed

 E&Ps

 attemp ti ng to

 s eek

 rate

 rel ief

 f rom th e

 mi d s tream

 s ec to r as

 th ey

 n av i g at e

 th rough th ei r c h al l en g es

 an d i f

 i t

 w ou l d n eed

 to

 take

 th e

 E &Ps

 fi li ng fo r b an krup tc y

 to

 do th at.

 They

 b el i eve

 i n th e

 b as i n s

 w i th

 h i gh er

 c omp eti ti on li ke

 th e Permi an ,

 t h ere

  c ou l d

 b e

  a

  po ss i b ility

  fo r

 a

  rate

  red u c ti on,

 bu t

  on l y

  i n

 t h e

  c as e

  o f b an krup tc y .

 H o w ev er,

  i n

 b as i n s

  li ke

  t h e

  DJ

  w h ere

  th e re

  i s

  l o w er

  c omp eti ti on,

 re - c on trac ti ng

 mi gh t

  b e

  mo re

  c h al l en g i ng

 th an

  i n

 t h e

  Per mi an .

 No tabl y ,

 Eas t

  Dal ey fl ag g e d W ES,

 EPD,

 an d ENL C

 as

 h av i ng ab o ve

 av g G &P

 rates

 i n th e

 Permi an . P o t e n t i a l

 U p si d e

 f r o m

 G as

 B a si ns

 I f

 g as

 p ri c es

 i n crease

 s ub s tan t i al l y

 o v er

 t he

 ne x t

 12 mont hs , E a s t

 D a l ey

 doe s

 not s ee

 t h e G reen

 R i v er

 i n W y o mi ng an d th e

 Pi c ean ce

 gro w i ng s i gn i fi c an tl y ; ho w ev er,

 th ey

 no ted th at

 w i th

 n atu r al

 g as

 pr i c es

 b e tw een

 $2.50/ MM B tu

 an d $3/ MM B t u th ere

 i s

 a

 po ten ti a l fo r th o s e

 b as i n s

 to

 g et

 mo re

 ac ti v ity

 th an

 es s en ti al l y

 th e

 z ero

 ri g s

 t h ere

 to d ay . O n l y

 a few

 yea rs

  ag o w i th

  p ri c es

  betw een

  $2.75

 an d

 $3.25,

 th e

  G reen

  R i v er

  w as

 at

  doub l e d i g i t

 r i g s

 a nd t h e

 Pi c ean ce

 w as

 c l o s e

 to

 doub l e

 d i g i t

 ri g s . Add i ti on al l y , Eas t

 Dal ey

 do es no t

  s ee

  materi al

  up s i d e

  to

  an y

  o f

  th e

  m i d s tream

  n ames

  i n

 th e

  B arn ett,

 bu t

  no tes

  a retu rn

 o f

  ac ti v ity

  i s

  prob a b l e

  i n

 p l ac es

  li ke

  t h e

  W es tern

  R o c ki es .

 I n

 th ei r

 v iew ,

 th e M arcel l u s

 an d Hay n es v ill e

 are

 go i ng to

 b e

 th e

 b i gg e s t

 w i nn ers

 l ong er

 term.

 They

 al s o not e d

 s om e

  i m pa c t

  on

 pow e r

 de m a nd

 ( 2- 3Bc f /d )

  fro m

 c o al

  s w itc h i ng

 at

  g as

  p ri ce

  o f

 $2.25-$3.25/ MM Bt u. Rep l ay

  D i al - I ns :

 US

  To ll

  F ree:

  +1

 888-286-8010

 /

 I nt e r na t i ona l :

 +1

 617-801-6888

 / P a ss c ode : 66420535 Shneur

 Z.

 Ger s h uni , C FA

 A na l ys t s hne ur .ge r s huni @ ubs .com

 +1 -212-713

 3974

 Ll oyd

 Byr ne

 A na l ys t ll oyd.byrne @ ubs . com

 +1 -212-713

 9701

 St even

 Fis her , C F A A na l ys t s t eve n.f i s he r @ ubs .com

 +1 -212-713

 8634

 A ga

 Zm i gro dzka , C FA

 A na l ys t a gni e s zk a .zm igro dzk a @ ubs .com

 +1 -212-713

 3014

 M i che ll e

 Kenel , C FA Assoc i a t e

 An a l y st mi che ll e .k e ne l @ ubs .com

 +1 -212-713

 4896

 Willi am

 A t ches on A na l ys t w illi a m .a t che s on @ ubs .com

 +1 -212-713

 3906

  www .u b s.co m / i nvestm ent r esea r ch

  Th i s

 rep o rt

 h as

 b een

 p repared

 b y

 UB S

 Se c u ri ti es

 LLC .

  ANALYS T

 C E R T I F IC AT I O N

 AND

 R E Q UI R E D

 DIS C L O S UR E S

 B E G I N

 O N PA G E

 20 .

 UB S

  do es

 an d s eeks

 to

 do

 bu s i n es s

 w i th

 c omp an i es

 c o v ered

 i n i ts

 res earc h r ep o rts .

 As

 a

  re s u l t , i n v es t o rs

 s hou l d b e aw are

 th at

 th e

 fi rm may

 h ave

 a

 c on fl i c t

 o f

 i n teres t

 th at

 c ou l d affec t

 th e

 ob j ec ti v ity

 o f

 t h i s

 rep o rt.

 I n ve s to rs

 s hou l d c on s i d er

 th i s rep o rt

 as

 on l y

 a

 s i ng l e

 fac to r i n maki ng th ei r i n v es tmen t

 d ec i s i on. Ener gy

 Am er i cas

 Equit ies

 M o d e ra to rs :

  Sh n eu r

 Ger s huni,

 M i d s t r eam /M L P

 &

 N atur al

 G as

 An al y s t

 at

 U B S

  L l oy d

 By r ne ,

 N or t h

 Am e r i c a n

 E x plor a t i on

 &

 P r oduc t i on

 An a l y s t

 a t

 U B S S t e v e n

 F i s he r,

 M a c hin e r y

 a nd

 E ngi ne e r i ng

 &

 Cons t r uc t i on

 A na l y s t

 a t

 U B S Sp eaker s :

 M at t

 L ewi s ,

 Se nior

 D i r ec t or

 o f

 Eq u i t y

 at

 Eas t

 D aley

 Cap i t al

  M el i ss a

 Sau rborn,

 Sen i or

 C ommod it y

 An al y s t

 at

 Eas t

 D aley

 Cap i t al Zac k

 V an

 Ev er e n,

 Cap i t al

 M ar ket s

 An a l y s t

 at

 Eas t

 D a l ey

 Sp eaker

 B i o s :

  M a tt

 L e wi s :

 A s

 S e nior

 D i r e c t or

 of

 E qui t y

 a t

 Eas t

 D aley

 Cap i t al,

 M at t

 s p ec i al i z es

 i n a na l yz i ng

  n a t ur a l

  ga s

  a nd

  oi l

  f unda m e nt a l s

  i nc l ud i ng

  s uppl y ,

  de m a nd,

  pi pe li n e f l ow s ,

 a nd

 f i nanc i a l s

 a t

 t he

 a ss e t

 l e v e l .

 T hi s

 i nc lude s

 r e s ea r c hing

 s pe c i f i c

 ga t he r i ng a nd

  pr oc e ss i ng

  s y s t e m s

  a nd

  pi pe li ne s

  a nd

  unde r s t a nding

  t he

  c ont r a c t s

  be hind t he m

 a s

 w e ll

 a s

 t he

 f l ow

 v olum e s

 a nd

 t hr oughput s

 of

 t he s e

 s y s t e m s .

 I n

 a ddi t i on, he

 unde r s t a nd s

 t he

 f i nanc i a l

 s i de

 of

 a ss e t s ,

 w hi c h

 pa i r e d

 w i t h

 s uppl y

 a nd

 de m a nd f und am en t al s ,

  dr ive

  v er y

  det ai led

  r i s k

  an d

  up s id e

  an aly s i s .

  M at t

  i s

  on e

  of

  t h e f oundation al

 t eam

 m em b er s

 at

 Eas t

 D ale y

 Cap i t al

 an d

 br i ng s

 a

 weal t h

 o f

 ex p er t i s e i n

  t he

  a r ea s

  o f

  na t ur a l

  ga s

  a nd

  c r ude

  oi l

  m a rk e t

  dyna m i c s ,

  n a t ur a l

  ga s

  pi pe li ne c ont r a c t s

 a nd

 i nf r a s t r uc t ur e

 a nd

 FE RC

 P r oc e ss

 a nd

 Re gul a t i on.

 M a tt

  g ra du a ted

  fro m

  th e

  U n i v e rs i ty

  o f

  D e n v e r

  w i th

  a

  M a s ter

  o f

  A rt s

  d e g re e

  i n G lobal

  F i nanc e ,

  T r a de

  a nd

  E c onom i c

  I nt e gr a t i on,

  a

  progr a m

  t ha t

  f oc use s

  on

  t h e c ompl e x

  c ha n ge s

  i n

  t he

  g lobal

  e c onom y ,

  i nc l uding

  t h e

  e m e rging

  p a tt e r ns

  of f i nanc i a l ,

 t r a de

 a nd

 hum a n

 c a pi t a l

 f l ow s

 a nd

 t he i r

 e ff e c t

 on

 s e c t or s

 a nd

 e c onom i e s

 M el i ss a

 Sau r b o r n

 i s

 a

 Sen ior

 C ommod i t y

 An al y s t

 at

 Eas t

 D aley

 Cap it al ,

 wh er e

 s h e f oc use s

  pr i m a r il y

  on

  oi l

  &

  ga s

  pr oduc t i on

  m odeli ng

  a nd

  c onne c t i ng

  ups t r ea m dyna m i c s

 t o

 m i ds t r ea m

 pe r f orm a nc e .

 P r i or

 t o

 E a s t

 D a l e y ,

 M s .

 S a urborn

 s pe nt

 ov e r a

 de c a de

 i n

 t h e

 ups t r ea m

 s e c t or,

 w ork i ng

 a s

 a

 ge ologi s t

 f or

 E xx onM obi l ,

 S a m s on Re s our c e s ,

  a nd

  One E ne rg y

  P a r t ne r s ,

  s pe c i a li z i ng

  i n

  t he

  a c qui s i t i on

  a nd de v e l opm e nt

 o f

 f i e l ds

 i n

 t he

 m a j or

 ons hor e

 U . S .

 ba s i n s

 ( P e rm i a n,

 W illi s t on,

 P ow de r R ive r,

 e t

 a l . ) .

 S he

 hol ds

 a

 M . S .

 i n

 Bus i ne ss

 A na l y t i c s

 f rom

 t he

 U ni v e r s i t y

 of

 D e nv e r, a

 M .A.

 i n

 E a r t h

 &

 E nv i ronm e nt a l

 S c i e nc e s

 f rom

 C olumbi a

 U ni v e r s i t y ,

 a nd

 a

 B. S .

 i n M a th e ma ti c s

 fro m

 ...

推荐访问:美国能源业:与East Daley谈话纪要 纪要 谈话 美国能源

版权所有:众一秘书网 2005-2024 未经授权禁止复制或建立镜像[众一秘书网]所有资源完全免费共享

Powered by 众一秘书网 © All Rights Reserved.。备案号: 辽ICP备05005627号-1