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An
U pda t ed
As ses smen t
of
the
E c onomic
Impact
of
C O VID - 19
KEY
P OINT S
•
N ew
analy sis
using
the Global
T r ade
Analy sis
P r oject model
estima t es
that
the global
ec onomic
impact
of
C O VID - 19
c ould
r each
$5.8
trillion
(6.4%
of
global GDP)
under
a
3-mon th c on tainment
sc enario ,
and
$8.8
trillion
(9 . 7%
of
global GDP)
under
a
6-mon th c on tainment
sc enario .
This upda t es
estima t es
published in
the
Asian
D e velopment Outlook
2020
on
3
April, which
pr edict ed
global C O VID - 19
los ses
of
between
$2. 0
trillion
and
$4 . 1
trillion.
•
The
pot en tial
ec onomic impact
on
Asia
and
the
P acific is
estima t ed
a t
$1. 7
trillion (6.2%
of
regional
GDP)
under a
3-mon th
c on tainment sc enario
and
$2.5
trillion (9 .3%
of
regional
GDP)
under a
6-mon th
c on tainment sc enario ,
with
the
re gion acc oun ting
f or
30%
of
the o v er all
decline
in
global
output.
•
Go v ernmen t
policy
responses
— such
as
dir ect
inc ome
and r ev enue
suppor t— c ould so ften
the
C O VID - 19
impact b y
as
much
as
30%– 40%, r educing
the
global
ec onomic los s
t o
$4 . 1
trillion–$5.4
trillion (4 .5%–5.9%
of
global
GDP).
•
P olicy
maker s
should
work t o gether
t o
quickly
limit
the pandemic—the
longer
the c on tainment
period,
the
mor e difficult
and
prolonged
the r ec o v ery
will
be.
S tr ong
inc ome and
employmen t
pr ot ection ar e
critic al
t o
support
the
most vulner able
and
a void
long- term
ec onomic
sc arring.
ISBN
9 7 8-92-9 262-214-5
( prin t)
ISBN
9 7 8-92-9 26 2-215 -2
( electr onic )
ISSN
20 7 1-7202
( prin t)
ISSN
2 218-2 6 75
( electr onic ) P ublic a tion
S tock
N o .
BRF200144-2
DOI:
h t tp:// dx. doi . or g / 10.2 2 617 /BRF200144-2
An
U pdated
A s ses sment
o f
the E c onomic
I mpact
o f
C O VID - 19 1
I NT r ODUCTION
O n
31
D ec ember
2019 ,
a
series
of
pneumonia
c ases
of
unkno wn
ca use
w as
det ect ed
in the
People ’ s
R epublic
of
China
(PR C ).
O n
30
J anuary ,
the
W orld
H ealth
O rganiza tion ( WHO ) declar ed
the
c orona virus
outbr eak
a
“public
health
emer gency
of
international c onc ern ”— with
7 , 736
c onfirmed
c ases
in
the
PR C
and
8 3
c onfirmed
c ases
in
18
ec onomies
outside
the
PR C
(F igure
1).
O n
11
F ebruary ,
the
disease
ca used
b y
the c orona virus
w as
o fficially
named
C O VID - 19 .
The
next
da y ,
C O VID - 19
c ases
be gan
t o spik e
in
the
R epublic
of
K or ea
(ROK ).
B y
21
F ebruary ,
its
pr esence
in
It aly
signaled
the r apid
spr ead
of
the
virus
t o
Europe.
B y
9
Mar ch,
It aly
plac ed
60
million
people
under lock do wn.
And
2
da y s
la t er ,
WHO
declar ed
C O VID - 19
a
global
pandemic.
B y
29
Mar ch, the
US
became
the
most
inf ect ed
c oun try .
O n
4
April,
the
lev el
of
inf ection
br eached the
million
mark
and
sev er al
da y s
aft er
Spain
o v er took
It aly .
I n
2
w eeks’
time,
the
lev el
of inf ection
br eached
2
million,
and
2
w eeks
la t er
it
br eached
3
million.
B y
12
Ma y ,
the
virus had
spr ead
t o
213
c oun tries
and
t erritories
w orldwide,
inf ecting
mor e
than
4
million people
and
ca using
mor e
than
280, 000
dea ths . 2
T o
suppr es s
the
spr ead
of
C O VID - 19 ,
man y
c oun tries
par tially
or
fully
closed
their
bor der s and
r estrict ed
the
mo v emen t
of
people.
The
PR C
w as
fir st
t o
impose
restrictions ,
placing W uhan
(11
million
popula tion)
under
lock do wn,
and
restricting
mo v emen t
acr os s
H ubei P r o vinc e
(57
million
population).
It aly
f ollo w ed
suit,
imposing
a
quarantined
“r ed
z one ” c o v ering
11
t o wns
and
villages
in
the
Lombardy
and
V enet o
regions .
The
lock do wn
w as la t er
ext ended
acr os s
the
en tire
c oun try
(60
million
population).
The
US
imposed
tr a v el bans
t o
and
fr om
It aly
and
the
R OK .
The
R OK
announced
a
lev el
4
“ do
not
tr a v el
t o ” advisory
f or
D ae gu
(wher e
c ommunity
inf ections
in
the
R OK
were
fir st
r epor t ed ).
As
of 28
Mar ch,
I n ternational
Air
T r ansport
As socia tion
(IA T A ) dat a
sho w ed
o v er
156
c oun tries with
some
form
of
tr a v el
r estriction— den ying
en try ,
restricting
visas ,
or
imposing manda tory
quaran tine,
among
other s;
and
104
c oun tries
were
closed
en tirely . 3
1
This
brief
w as
pr epar ed
b y
Cyn- Young
P ark,
J ames
V illafuer t e,
Abdul
Abiad,
Badri
N ara yanan, E duar do
Banzon,
J indr a
Samson,
Ammar
A ftab ,
and
Mar a
Claire
T a y ag.
The
a uthor s
acknowledge the
c on tribution
of
Guy
Sac er doti ,
P a ulo
R odelio
H alili ,
Philip
Amadeus
Libr e,
R osa
Mia
Lasam Ar ao ,
and
R eizle
J ade
Platit as .
The
brief
also
benefited
fr om
c ommen ts
receiv ed
fr om
numer ous c olleagues
acr os s
Asian
D ev elopment
Bank
( ADB).
The
brief
w as
also
supported
b y
T A
898 3: U niv er sal
H ealth
Co v er age
f or
I nclusive
Gr o wth
fr om
the
SDC C
H ealth
Sect or
Gr oup .
2
W orld
H ealth
O rganization.
WHO
Cor ona virus
D isease
( C O VID - 19)
D ashboard.
h t tps:// c o vid19 . who .in t/
(ac c es sed
12
Ma y
2020).
3
I n t ernational
Air
T r ansport
As socia tion
(IA T A ).
IAT A
–
I n t ernational
T r a v el
D ocumen t
N ot es: Cor ona virus
U pdat e.
h t tps:// www .ia t a tr a v elc en tr e. c om/in t erna tional-tr a v el- documen t- new s/ 1580 22 629 7 .h tm
(ac c es sed
28
Mar ch
2020).
ADB
BRIEFS
NO .
133
M AY 2020
F igure
1.
Global
C O VID - 19
Confirmed
Cases
and
Deaths
in
2020
(‘000,
as
o f
11
May)
4,500
4,000
Confirmed
cases started
to spike
in
Italy
W H O
d e c l a re s international
public health
emergency
W H O
d e c l a re s COVID-19
a
pandemic
The
US
posted the
highest number
of infections globally
The
PRC
ended lockdown
in Wuhan
New
Zealand reported
zero confirmed
cases, 1st
since lockdown
Confirmed cases
surpass 4
million mark
Australia: lockdown lifted
partially
16 0
14 0
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
50 0
Death
toll
in
the
PRC surpassed
that
of 2002–2003
SARS
epidemic
Confirmed
cases started
to
spike in
the
Republic of
Korea
Italy
placed 60
million
of
its residents
on
lockdown
Iran
infections rose
rapidly
Italy
exceeded the
PRC
Confirmed cases
surpass 1
million
mark
Spain overtook Italy
Confirmed cases
surpass 2
million mark
Confirmed cases
surpass 3
million mark
12 0
10 0
8 0
6 0
4 0
2 0
0
2 0
J an
8
F e b
27
F e b
17
M a r
5
Apr
24
Apr
0
11
May
Confirmed
(new)
Deaths
(new)
Confirmed
(cumulative)
Deaths
(cumulative)
Negative
events
Positive
events
PR C
=
People ’ s
R epublic
of
China,
SARS
=
sev ere
acute
respir a tory
s yndrome,
US
=
U nited
S t a t es ,
WHO
=
W orld
H ealth
O rganization. Sour c e:
W orld
H ealth
O rganiza tion
st a tistics
do wnloaded
using
CEIC
(ac c es sed
12
Ma y
2020).
These
c on trol
measur es—r estrictions
t o
transpor t,
labor
mobility , and
workplace
closur es— act ed
as
supply
shocks
t o
the
ec onom y . I nitially ,
restrictions
on
transport
and
the
mo v emen t
of
labor impair ed
the
ec onom y’ s
production
c apacity ,
disrupting
supplies . This
spilled
o v er
t o
the
demand
side
as
people
were
lock ed
do wn in
their
homes
and
worker s
were
laid
off
and
lost
inc ome.
Air
tr a v el restrictions
and
bor der
closur es
limit ed
both
the
mo v emen t
of people
and
the
mo v emen t
of
goods
acr os s
bor der s .
I n
response, gov ernmen ts
immediat ely
r amped
up
spending
on
medic al supplies
such
as
masks ,
per sonal
prot ective
equipmen t,
and
vir al medicines .
The y
also
announced
sev er al
macroec onomic
stimuli t o
suppor t
pa yroll
and
k eep
jobs ,
pr o vided
c ash
tr ansfer s
and
food
supplies
t o
the
poor ,
and
ext ended
loans
and
t ax
as sist anc e t o
busines ses .
This
policy
brief
explor es
the
pot en tial
ec onomic
impacts
of
the C O VID - 19
outbr eak
using
the
Global
T r ade
Analy sis
P r oject ( G T AP)
Model,
a
multir e gion
c omput able
gener al
equilibrium model.
The
analy sis
inc orpor a t es
thr ee
known
and
measur able channels:
( i)
an
incr ease
in
trade
costs
that
aff ects
the
mo v emen t
of
people
and
inbound
tourism,
along
with
industries
link ed
t o global
supply
chains;
( ii)
a
ne ga tive
supply - side
pr oductivity
shock that
cuts
w ages
and
c orpor a t e
earnings ,
leading
t o
r eductions
in c onsumption
and
investmen t;
and
( iii)
fisc al
stimulus
thr ough v arious
macroec onomic
policy
instrumen ts
(F igure
2).
The
fir st
channel
acc oun ts
f or
bor der
c on trol
restrictions
and air
tr a v el
bans
adopted
b y
some
c oun tries
immediat ely
aft er
the
PR C
announced
the
c orona virus
outbr eak
in
J anuary
20 20.
I n
our modeling
implemen t a tion,
these
bor der
restrictions
and
tr a v el
bans increased
the
c ost
of
trade
in
servic es ,
par ticularly
a via tion
and outbound
and
inbound
tourism.
A
study
b y
F orw ar dK ey s— a
tr a v el analytics
c ompan y —not ed
that
C O VID - 19-r ela t ed
tr a v el
restrictions r educ ed
y ear-to - dat e
arriv als
(1
J anuary – 19
April
20 20)
b y
39 .8%
in
Americ as ,
42%
in
A fric a
and
the
Middle
East,
50.2%
in
Cen tr al and
East ern
Europe,
7 0.9%
in
N orth
East
Asia,
49 .5%
in
Southeast Asia,
and
40.9%
in
O c eania — aff ecting
tourist
arriv als
and
tourism receipts
globally
and
in
the
region. 4
L ooking
back
o v er
the
fir st quart er
( Q1)
of
20 20,
airline
sea t
c apacit...
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