澳大利亚医疗业:COVID-19疫情影,响下医疗保健(全文完整)

发布时间:2022-07-01 16:50:03

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澳大利亚医疗业:COVID-19疫情影,响下医疗保健(全文完整)

 

 G l o b al R e sear c h

 20

 May

 2020

 A us tr al i an

 H e al th c ar e

 S ec tor

 H e alth car e

 i n

 a

 C O VI D - 19

 a ff ec t ed

 wor ld

  T h e

 sh o r t -

 and

 l o n g e r- te rm

 i mp li c a ti o ns

 f o r

 h e a l th c a re

 K ey

 c on s i d erati on s

 i n a ss es s i ng th e

 ou tl ook f or li s ted

 Au s trali an

 h eal th c are

 s to cks

 i n a COV ID -19 affected

 w o rl d i n c l ud e:

 1 )

 The

 ti me

 frame

 b ei ng a ss es s e d –

 s hor t

 v s

 l on ge r term;

 2 )

 Natu re

 o f

 th e

 p an d em i c

 ac ro ss

 reg i on s

 ( e. g. AUS

 v s

 U S)

 an d c omp an y

 ex po s u re to

 th es e

 marke ts ; 3 )

 Natu re

 o f

 h eal th c are

 fu nd i ng an d ho w

 th i s

 mi gh t

 th i s

 c h an g e ; 4 ) Heal th c are

 s erv i ce

 d el i v ery

 an d

  th e

 i mp ac t

 o f

 c on s um er/ c li n i c i an

 b e h av i our

  on u t ili sa t io n; 5 )

  Im p lic a ti on s

 fo r c o s ts

 ( e. g. n ew

 pro c es s es /pro to c o l s ) . W e

 ad d res s

 eac h o f th es e

 i ss u es

 as

 t h ey

 relate

 to

 s to cks

 und er

 c o v erag e.

 No

 " p l ayb oo k " ,

 w e

 fa ct o r

 i n

 i ndu st r y

 f ee dba ck

 and

 c o mpany - sp e ci f i c

 i ssu e s

 W e

 ac kno w l ed g e

 th at

 th ere

 i s

 no " p l ay book "

 to

 h el p as s es s

 th e

 i mp ac t

 o f

 COV I D -19 on our s to cks

 und er

 c o v erag e.

 W e

 h ave

 rev i e w ed

 th e

 i mp ac t

 du ri ng th e

 G F C

 bu t

 read - th rough

 i s

  limi t ed ;

 as

  i s

  th e

  S AR S

  ou tb reak

  fro m

 2003.

 Th erefo re

  our

 framew ork

 fo r an al y s i ng

 th e

  i mp ac t

  on

 s to cks

  takes

  i n to

  c on s i d erati on

 fe ed b ac k

 fro m

 a

  r a nge

  of i nd us t r y

  di s cus s i on s

  a nd

 ov e r l ay s

  c om pany - s p ec i fi c

  fac to rs

  s u c h

 as

  reg i on a l

  ex po s ur e an d s ou rc es

 o f

 rev en u es . D efen s i ven es s

 al r ead y

 p r i c ed i n ?

 Ac ro ss

  our

 c o v erag e

  un i v ers e,

  few

 s to cks

  are

  tradi ng

 at

  a

  materi al

  d i s c oun t

  to

  th e i r h i s to r i c al

  PE

  rel s

  ( v s

  ASX 100

 i ndu s tri al s ) .

 Th ere

  are

  rati on al

  reas on s

  fo r

 th i s

  i n

 th a t go v ern men ts

  i n

 mo s t

  O ECD

  c oun tri e s

  are

  s i gn i fi c an t

  p ay ers

  fo r

 h eal t h c are

  produ c t s / s erv i c es

  an d

 ar e

  un li ke l y

  to

  r ei n

 i n

 s p e nd

 ( materi al l y )

  du ri ng

 a

  h ea l th

  c ri s i s

  ( fi s c al l y c ons t r a i ne d

 budg ets

  w ill

  li ke l y

  po s e

  g reater

  ri s k

 to

  o th er

  areas

  o f

  s p en d

 ou ts i d e

  o f h eal th care) .

  I n

  ad d i ti on,

  popu lati on s

 w ill

 c on ti nu e

 to

 ag e

 an d

  n ew

 treatmen ts / m oda li t i e s

 w ill

 e m e r ge , f os t e r i ng ongo i ng gro w t h i n ut ili s a t i on. S t o ck

 i mp li ca t i o n s?

 I n our v i e w , he a l t hc a re

 remai n s

 a

 d efen s i ve

 s ec to r. Ho w ev er , w e

 b el i eve

 ex p ec tation s may

  b e

  o v erl y

  op ti mi s ti c

  i n

 th e

  rate

  o f

  rec o v ery

  i n

 v o l u mes / s erv i c es

  b ac k

 to

  p rev i ou s le vels.

  A c ro ss

  s ub- s ec to rs ,

 an d

 taki ng

 i n to

  acc oun t

  a

  ran g e

  o f

  qu al i tati v e/ qu an ti tati ve fac to rs ,

 our

 key

  s to c k

 p referen c es

  i n c l ud e

  CSL

  an d

 EB O ,

 fo ll o w ed

  b y

  R M D,

  R HC

  an d ANN.

  W e

  rema i n

 mo re

  c au ti ou s

  on

 d i ag no s t i c

  s erv i ce

  pro v i d ers

  i n

 g en eral

  (SHL)

  an d m a i nt a i n S e ll

 r a t i ngs

 on COH

 a nd S I G , pr e dom i na nt l y

 on va l ua t i on groun ds . Sau l

 Had assi n

 A na l ys t s a ul .hada ss i n@ ubs .com

 + 61-2-9324

 3574

 A nna

 M iln e Assoc i a t e

 An a l y st a nna .mil ne @ ubs .com

 + 61-2-9324

 2147

 K ar yn

 C ao Assoc i a t e

 An a l y st k a r yn.ca o@ ubs.c om

 + 61-2-9324

 2998

 www .u b s.co m / i nvestm ent r esea r ch

  Th i s

 rep o rt

 h as

 b een

 p rep are d b y

 UB S

 Sec u ri ti es

 Au s trali a

 L td .

 A N A L YS T

 C E R T I F IC A T I O N

 A N D

 R E Q UI R ED

 DI SC L O SUR ES BEGI N O N

 P AGE

 25 .

  UB S

 do e s

 an d s eeks

 to

 do bu s i n es s

 w i t h c omp an i es

 c o v ered

 i n i ts

 re s earc h r ep o rts . As

 a

 res u l t,

 i n v es t o rs

 s hou l d b e aw are

 th at

 th e

 fi rm may

 h ave

 a

 c on fl i c t

 o f

 i n teres t

 th at

 c ou l d affec t

 th e

 ob j ec ti v ity

 o f

 t h i s

 rep o rt.

 I n ve s to rs

 s hou l d c on s i d er

 th i s rep o rt

 as

 on l y

 a

 s i ng l e

 fac to r i n maki ng th ei r i n v es tmen t

 d ec i s i on. Heal t h car e

 Au stra li a

 Equit ies

 Cont e n t s

 H ealt hc ar e

 in

 a

 CO VID - 19

 af f ec t ed w orld

  ............................. 4

 Ti m e

 f r am e

 –

 s hor t

 t e rm v s . l ong t e rm m a tt e r s

  ............................................ 5 Re gi on a l

 e x po s ur e

 –

 di ff e r e nc e s

 b a s e d on w ho pa y s

  .................................... 5 H eal t h c ar e

 ex p en d i t ur e

 –

 G F C

 a

 ( l es s

 t h a n p er f ec t )

 pr e c e d e nt

 ...................... 6 Au s t r al i a

 –

 r e li a nt

 on gov e rnm e n t

 f un di ng

  .................................................. 7 US

 –

 co mm e r cia l

 i n s ur a n ce

 is

 k e y

  .............................................................. 10 E urop e / U K

 –

 w e l fa re

 s ta t e s

  ....................................................................... 12 H eal t h c ar e

 s e r v i c e

 d e l ive r y

 –

 co n s um e r/ cl i n i cia n b e h a vio ur

  ......................... 13 St oc k view s

  ............................................................... 16

 CS L

 - P T

 A$342; B UY

  ................................................................................ 16 R HC

 - P T

 A$63.20; N E U T RA L

  .................................................................... 17 R MD - P T

 US $174 ( A$26.75 ) ; NE UT R AL

  .................................................... 18 COH

 - P T

 A$150; SE LL

  .............................................................................. 19 S HL

 - P T

 A$23.10; SE LL

  ............................................................................. 20 ANN

 - P T

 A$31.00; N E U T RA L

  .................................................................... 21 E BO

 - P T

 N Z $27.20; BU Y

  ........................................................................... 22 S I G

 - P T

 A$0.53; SE LL

  ............................................................................... 23 Sau l

 Had assi n

 A na l ys t s a ul .hada ss i n@ ubs .com

 + 61-2-9324

 3574

 A nna

 M iln e Assoc i a t e

 An a l y st a nna .mil ne @ ubs .com

 + 61-2-9324

 2147

 K ar yn

 C ao Assoc i a t e

 An a l y st k a r yn.ca o@ ubs.c om

 + 61-2-9324

 2998

 A us t r al ian

 H eal t hc ar e

 Sec t or

  U BS

 R es earc h THESI S

 M AP

 M O ST

 F AV O R ED

 L EAST

 F AV O R E D

  CSL ,

 EB O S

 S H L ,

 COH ,

 S IG

  PI VO TAL

 Q UESTI O NS

 Q:

 W h at d o es

 h ealt h c ar e

 l oo k li ke

 i n

 a

 C O V I D - 19

 aff ec t e d

 w o r l d ?

 The

 key

 c on s i d erati on s

 i n as s e ss i ng th e

 ou tl ook fo r li s ted

 Au s trali an

 h ea l th c are

 s to cks

 i n a

 COV I D -19 affected

  w o rl d

 i n c l ud e:

  1 )

  The

  ti me

  frame

  b e i ng

 a ss es s ed

  –

  s ho rt

  v s

  l ong er

  term;

  2 )

  Natu r e

  o f

  th e p an d em i c

  ac ro ss

  reg i on s

  ( e. g.

 AUS

  v s

  US)

  a nd

 c omp an y

  ex po s u re

  to

  th e s e

  markets ;

 3 )

  Natu re

  o f h eal th c are

 fu nd i ng –

 w ho are

 th e

 ke y

 p ay ers

 an d ho w

 mi gh t

 fu nd i ng c h an g e ; 4 )

 Heal th c are

 s erv i ce d el i v ery

  an d th e

  i mp ac t

  o f

  c on s u mer / c li n i c i a n b eh av i our

 on

 u ti li s ati on; 5 )

  I mp li c ati on s

 fo r

 c o s ts

 ( e. g. ne w

 pr oc e ss e s /pr ot oc ol s

 t o m a nage

 s oc i a l

 d i s t a nc i ng, i nf ec t i ons ) . W e

 a ddr e ss

 eac h o f

 t h es e

 i ss u es

 a s th ey

 relate

 to

 our s to cks

 und er

 c o v erag e.

  W HAT" S

 PR I CED

 I N?

 L im ite d

 long - t e r m

 i mpa ct

 b e i n g

 p r ice d

 i n .

 Ac ro ss

 our c o v erag e

 un i v ers e , few s to cks

 a r e

 t r a d i ng a t

 a materi al

 d i s c oun t

 to

 th ei r h i s t o ri c al

 PE

 rel s

 ( v s

 ASX 100 i ndu s tr i al s ) . Th ere

 are

 rati on al

 rea s on s

 fo r th i s

 i n th at

 go v ernme n ts

 i n mo s t

 O E CD

 c oun tri e s

 ar e

 s i gn i fi c an t

 p ay ers

 fo r h eal th c are

 produ c ts / se r v ic e s

 a nd are

  un li kel y

  to

  rei n

 i n

 s p en d

 ( materi al l y )

  du ri ng

 a

  h eal th

  c ri s i s

  ( fi s c al l y

  c on s trai n ed

  budg et s

  w ill

  li kel y po s e

 g reater

 ri s k to

 o th er

 area s

 o f

 s p en d ou t s i d e

 o f

 h eal th c ar e) . I n ad d i t i on, popu lati on s

 w ill

 c on ti nu e to

 ag e

 an d n ew

 treatmen ts /mod a li t i e s

 w ill

 e m e r ge , f os t e r i ng ongo i ng gr ow t h i n ut ili s a t i on.

 UB S

 V I EW

 H o w e v e r

  a

  r e t u r n

  ba ck

  t o

  h i st o r i ca l

  l e v e l s

  i s

  li k e l y

  t o

  b e

  p r o t r a ct e d :

 I n

 our

 v iew ,

 h eal th c ar e remai n s

 a

 d efen s i ve

 s ec to r. H o w ev er,

 w e

 b el i eve

 ex p ec tation s

 may

 b e

 o v er l y

 op ti mi s ti c

 i n th e

 rate

 o f rec o v ery

  i n

 v o l u mes / s erv i c es

  b ac k

 to

  p rev i ou s

  l ev el s .

 Ac ro ss

  s ub- s ec t or s ,

 a nd

 t a k i ng

 i nt o

 acc ount

 a ran g e

  o f

  qu al i t ati v e/ qu a n ti tat i ve

  fac to rs

  ( ex h i b i t

  b el o w ) ,

 our

 key

  s to c k

 p referen c es

  i n c l ud e

  CSL

  an d EB O , f o ll o w ed

  b y

  R M D , R HC

  an d ANN.

  W e

  remai n mo re

  c au ti ou s

 on d i a gno s ti c

  s erv i ce

  pro v i d ers

  i n g en eral

 (SHL)

 a nd mai n tai n Sel l

 rati ng s

 on COH

 an d SI G , p red o mi n a n tl y

 on v al u ati on ground s .

 EV I DENCE

 L i m i t ed

 r ead - t h r o u g h

  f r o m

  G F C ,

  w e

  r un

  t h r o u g h

  c o n si d e r a t i o ns

  ab o v e

  and

  r e a ch

  g e n e r a l co n cl u si o ns :

 W e

 ac kno w l ed g e

 th at

 th ere

 i s

 no " p l ay book "

 to

 h el p as s es s

 th e

 i mp ac t

 o f

 COV I D -19 on...

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